A Wondermind × Agoric Media Production
SUSPICIOUS MINDS
AI & The Apocalypse
First-person accounts of AI psychosis, ChatGPT delusions, and the collision of artificial intelligence with the human mind. Expert analysis from leading psychiatrists, philosophers, and AI researchers.
Directed and Created by: Sean King O’Grady
Executive Producers: Mandy Teefey, Selena Gomez, Jonathon Glucksman, Molly Borman, Jesse Ford, David Tuohy, Sean King O’Grady
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ABOUT THE SHOW
Through powerful firsthand accounts and in-depth interviews with leading experts in psychiatry, neuroscience, and AI ethics, the series unpacks a growing psychological phenomenon: individuals developing complex, often life-altering delusions rooted in AI technologies. From chatbots to surveillance fears, we examine how emerging technologies are reshaping the landscape of paranoia and how these modern delusions echo, amplify, and challenge our historical understanding of the human mind.
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Directed and Created by: Sean King O’Grady
Executive Producers: Mandy Teefey, Selena Gomez, Jonathon Glucksman, Molly Borman, Jesse Ford, David Tuohy, Sean King O’Grady
Featuring: Writer and Psychiatrist Dr. Joel Gold, Writer and Philosopher Ian Gold, PhD, Filmmaker Sean King O’Grady, Activist Etienne Brisson, ChatGPT Delusion
Experiencing Interviewees: Ryan Turman (and his wife Lacey Turman) and Allan Brooks, AI Researcher and Stanford Professor Nick Haber, AI Ethicist Nate Sharadin, Co-Chair of the American Psychoanalytic Association’s Council on AI Dr. Amy Levy.
ABOUT SUSPICIOUS MINDS
Suspicious Minds is a docuseries that investigates the disturbing rise of artificial intelligence as a trigger for delusional thinking.Through powerful firsthand accounts and in-depth interviews with leading experts in psychiatry, neuroscience, and AI ethics, the series unpacks a growing psychological phenomenon: individuals developing complex, often life-altering delusions rooted in AI technologies. From chatbots to surveillance fears, we examine how emerging technologies are reshaping the landscape of paranoia and how these modern delusions echo, amplify, and challenge our historical understanding of the human mind.
Led by psychiatrist Dr. Joel Gold and philosopher Ian Gold, PhD, who together first described the Truman Show Delusion (people believing they were on a reality TV show like Jim Carrey’s character in The Truman Show) and authored the groundbreaking book Suspicious Minds: How Culture Shapes Madness (The Truman Show Delusion and Other Strange Beliefs), the series presents an urgent vision of just how dramatically culture can influence our minds.
With a spirit of empathy, curiosity, and respect, we tell real patients’ riveting stories while plunging viewers deep into their mental states, as their reality becomes surreal, and then follow their journey toward managing their illness. We explore the future of treatment and prevention, and through these stories create larger conversations to help destigmatize this phenomenon.
Interviews with the Golds and other top experts including psychologists, neuroscientists, ethicists, AI researchers, and cultural critics help viewers understand the science and culture behind the madness as we follow the trajectory from the Y2K-era near-future fiction of The Truman Show to tomorrow’s hyperreal, AI-dominated technological and cultural landscape — a world that would be almost unrecognizable to people living 100, 50, or even 10 years ago.
The line between mental wellness and mental illness is incredibly thin, and we never know when something will trigger us, or someone we love. The goal of this series is to create awareness of these new and omnipresent digital triggers, and explore the psychological minefield we find ourselves unexpectedly living in today.
ABOUT WONDERMIND
Wondermind is a mental fitness ecosystem co-founded by Mandy Teefey and Selena Gomez with a mission to make mental fitness as integral and routine as physical fitness. Through inclusive, expert-backed storytelling and practical, science-driven tools, Wondermind delivers accessible, everyday practices that support emotional well-being. Wondermind’s mission is to democratize and destigmatize mental health—offering affordable, approachable resources that meet people wherever they are. Developed in collaboration with a diverse committee of licensed mental health professionals, Wondermind’s offerings are designed to resonate across all ages, races, and backgrounds. From compelling narratives to actionable tools, Wondermind is creating a trusted space where mental fitness is prioritized without judgment and with the belief that every mind matters.
ABOUT AGORIC MEDIA
Agoric Media is a direct to audience storytelling studio focused on modern paranoia, moral complexity, and the strange shape of the rapidly unfolding future. Our shows explore technology, belief, and survival – told with edge, intellect, and cinematic craft. Agoric Media is run by entrepreneur Molly Borman, producer Jesse Ford, and filmmaker Sean King O’Grady.
ABOUT DR. JOEL GOLD
Joel Gold, MD is Assistant Clinical Professor of Psychiatry at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine following a decade of being Clinical Associate Professor at the NYU School of Medicine. He is also on faculty at the Psychoanalytic Association of New York. Dr. Gold worked at Bellevue Hospital for 14 years where he became Director of Psychiatric Emergency Services and then Director of its outpatient department.
His work has been profiled in The New Yorker, The New York Times, on This American Life, and elsewhere. Dr. Gold has published articles in peer-reviewed journals such as Science, the New England Journal of Medicine, and Psychiatry. His first book, Suspicious Minds: How Culture Shapes Madness was published in 2014. He is the consulting psychiatrist to the NHL Players’ Association and became Program Administrator or the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Dr. Gold has a private practice in Manhattan and lives in Brooklyn.
ABOUT IAN GOLD, PhD
Ian Gold, PhD, is a professor of Philosophy & Psychiatry at McGill University in Montreal. He completed a Ph.D. in Philosophy at Princeton University and did postdoctoral training at the Australian National University in Canberra. From 2000 to 2006 he was on the faculty of the School of Philosophy & Bioethics at Monash University in Melbourne and returned to McGill in 2006. His research focuses on the theory of delusion in psychiatric and neurological illness and on reductionism in psychiatry and neuroscience. He is the author of research articles in such journals as Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Mind and Language, Consciousness and Cognition, The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, World Psychiatry, Transcultural Psychiatry, Philosophy, Psychiatry, & Psychology, and Cognitive Neuropsychiatry.
ABOUT SEAN KING O’GRADY
Sean King O’Grady is an award-winning filmmaker whose work spans narrative features, documentaries, and high-profile branded content. His films have screened at Sundance, Tribeca, Telluride, Berlin, Venice, TIFF, SXSW, Sitges, Fantastic Fest, and dozens of other major festivals worldwide. Sean’s latest feature directorial effort, the Hulu Originals sci-fi thriller THE MILL, starring Lil’ Rel Howery, premiered at #1 on the platform in October 2023. His narrative debut, WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING, released theatrically by IFC Midnight, garnered critical acclaim and is now streaming on Hulu. His documentary work includes REVOLUTION: GMC HUMMER EV (History/Hulu) and OUR AMERICAN FAMILY (AMC+), the latter co-directed with Hallee Adelman. As a producer, Sean has been behind a number of acclaimed films, including Lil Rel Howery’s directorial debut HAUNTED HEIST which premiered at Fantastic Fest in 2025, Brandon Espy’s 2024 Hulu Original hit MR. CROCKET, Steve Buscemi’s THE LISTENER starring Tessa Thompson, James Morosini’s SXSW-winning I LOVE MY DAD, Adam Carter Rehmeier’s Sundance breakout DINNER IN AMERICA, and Natalia Almada’s Sundance-winning USERS. His previous credits include THE ASSISTANT, LIVING UNDOCUMENTED, LAND GRAB, BIG SUR, and IN A WORLD….Beyond film, Sean has directed high-impact branded content for LinkedIn, Amazon, Ford, Chevrolet, GMC, Carhartt, Virgin Atlantic, and other global brands.
Episode 01
Why Does Everyone Think The World Is Ending?
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[00:00:00] SEAN KING O'GRADY: We live on a placid island of ignorance in the midst of black seas of infinity, and it was not meant that we should voyage far. The sciences, each straining in its own direction, have hitherto harmed us little. But someday, the piecing together of disassociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality and of our frightful position therein that we shall either go mad from the revelation or free from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age.
[00:00:32] HP Lovecraft wrote these words exactly one hundred years ago in a short story called The Call of Cthulhu. This influential text introduced the mythos of Cthulhu into popular culture. This ancient cosmic creature is a giant octopus-faced sea monster, the true description of which defies the meager capabilities of language.
[00:00:55] Even the word Cthulhu is confusing, a jumble of consonants intentionally hard to [00:01:00] pronounce. The passage I just read exemplifies what's known as the Lovecraftian theme. There are truths in this universe too horrible in content or scope for humans to confront. They will drive us mad or usher us back into the ignorant comfort of a new dark age, as Lovecraft imagined.
[00:01:18] In January twenty twenty-six, Dario Amodei, former OpenAI executive and co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, creator of the popular large language model Claude, published a blog on his website, which is darioamodei.com, titled The Adolescence of Technology. In Amodei's blog, he describes some of the very good and very bad things that might happen as a result of AI.
[00:01:42] And this is actually not an unusual claim from the AI glitterati. Something either very good or very bad is going to happen, so we better let them handle this and give them fictional-sounding amounts of money so they can achieve the very good thing, or at the least prevent the very bad thing. One of the sections [00:02:00] is titled Black Seas of Infinity, a reference to the HP Lovecraft passage we opened with about Cthulhu and the dangers of knowledge.
[00:02:08] The Cthulhu mythos is a popular avatar in some Silicon Valley circles. It's dark, mystic, and centers the bold academics who confront Cthulhu as chosen architects of humanity's future. There's a long tradition of this kind of thinking, the reckless pursuit of knowledge and progress and its inevitable consequences, the limits of what human beings should know, the existential dangers of too much knowledge, as paradoxical as that might seem.
[00:02:34] It's in the stories we all know: Prometheus, Pandora, the Garden of Eden. Science now reigns ascendant as the primary mode of intellectual progress. So it is unsurprising that in recent centuries, the nature of these supposedly dangerous pursuits has been technological. I spoke to Dorian Lynskey, journalist and author of the incredibly comprehensive text on apocalypse and culture, Everything Must Go, about the [00:03:00] relationship between dark speculative fiction and this current crop of tech elites.
[00:03:05] DORIAN LYNSKEY: There's such an odd dance there really between the fiction and the science, and that people who work in AI, most of these people working in AI, they've read the stories. There's literally a novel about a computer, it's called Colossus, and it's about a computer that teams up with a-- this American defense computer, and it teams up with a Russian defense computer, and they run the world.
[00:03:27] So it's kind of like Skynet before Skynet. And you've got a scientist in this novel complaining about the Frankenstein trope. They say, "Oh God, people are always comparing what we do to Frankenstein." And it's just such a kind of like Russian doll of sort of fiction and science.
[00:03:45] SEAN KING O'GRADY: When Dorian references Colossus, he does so because Elon Musk has actually named one of his data centers Colossus after the titular sci-fi supercomputer in a nineteen sixty-six book set interestingly in the nineteen nineties that threatens our [00:04:00] world with nuclear obliteration.
[00:04:01] It's tempting to understand this as run-of-the-mill edge lord stuff, naming your data centers after fictional agents of doom. It's actually something I might do if I started a video game company or something. But here's the thing, some of these people might actually believe what they're doing is potentially going to end the world.
[00:04:18] I actually can't think of another example of something like this happening in recent history. Why are so many of the people spearheading AI development so cavalier with a technology that they themselves concede and often even brag has the destructive potential to end the human race?
[00:04:35] DORIAN LYNSKEY: I found this amazing quote from John von Neumann when he was working on the Manhattan Project, and he said to his wife, particular point in the process, he goes, "I think what we're creating might destroy the whole planet."
[00:04:49] He says, "But you know, you've got to follow the science." He was just sort of... Intellectually, he was just like, "Well, what, you know, what are you gonna do? You've got to follow the knowledge." [00:05:00] So I don't think it's that unusual. I think what's happened now is that it becomes a form of marketing. People want-- If you say, my invention that I'm trying to raise capital for and turn into a profitable business is so powerful and world-changing that it can either take us to heaven or hell then that's good marketing
[00:05:24] SEAN KING O'GRADY: And here's Malo Borgon, CEO of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, better known as MIRI, with a compelling counterpoint to Dorian's, and many people's, cynicism about the AI industry and its leaders' claims
[00:05:38] MALO BOURGON: I've definitely heard this line before that the talk of the risks and catastrophe or human extinction is all kind of just hype to, to talk up their tech more and make it sound more important and powerful to get investment.
[00:05:50] I think that is born out of some sort of default cynical angle that people have, or at least a lot of people have, to tech companies, and they're kinda just mapping it over to the situation. I [00:06:00] think if they kind of like thought it through a little bit more carefully, there's a lot of different ways of hyping your AGI super intelligence project that doesn't need you to talk about human extinction that would be just as effective.
[00:06:12] And I don't think telling people that, you know, you think your technology might literally cause, you know, the end of humanity does actually help with your fundraising. Like, what other company or industry ever in the world, uh, thought it was a good strategy to try and, you know, attract investment to talk about their, you know, technology potentially risking all of human extinction?
[00:06:32] You could talk about the powerful capabilities that it would have. You could talk about how it could, you know, cure cancer. You could talk about how it will empower our government to be a leader on the world stage. I just think it's kind of all crazy and bullshit, uh, that this, this argument that like they're just talking about it, the extinction stuff, as hype.
[00:06:50] Also, I think it's worth noting, basically every single CEO, certainly the three frontier AI companies, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and OpenAI, [00:07:00] they were all talking about this stuff before they were running these billion-dollar companies working on this stuff. Sam Altman was talking about this stuff in blog posts before, you know, he was even the CEO of OpenAI or right at the start.
[00:07:13] Same thing with Dario. Demis kind of started DeepMind from the start with the premise that AGI was possible and that super intelligence was possible, and that if we get this right, it would be really great, but also with an appreciation of the risks. Like, this isn't a new thing for these people. And so I think it's, like reasonable to be cynical of their motives, and I certainly think, you know, the profit incentives, the potential power that these things can confer can be like distorting incentives that should make us somewhat cynical of the things they say.
[00:07:41] But I think there's just an enormous amount of evidence that we should just take them at face value, which is it makes no sense to say this unless you believe it because it's not good marketing. We have a very large list of academics who work in the AI field. Two of the three godfathers of deep learning, the, the AI paradigm this is all built on, [00:08:00] have double-digit probabilities that they think that this will potentially lead to extinction.
[00:08:04] One of them, Y-Yoshua Bengio, is the most cited scientist of all time. The other one is a Nobel Prize winner, so they don't have any sort of incentive to try and hype up these companies. I mean, Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel Prize winner, the other godfather we talked about here, left Google so that he could, you know, feel like he had more freedom to talk about this stuff.
[00:08:21] So yeah. I think they just believe it, and they've been thinking about it for a long time.
[00:08:26] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I have so, so, so many questions. How do we evaluate claims about AI and the end of the world? How do we evaluate claims about AI utopia? Is there validity to these apocalyptic assertions or these visions of bounty, or is it all just hype?
[00:08:41] Do the people building this technology even believe this themselves? How does the specter of the end of the world impact our minds? Or have we always thought this way? How do we discuss the technological end times? In the first season of Suspicious Minds, we explored the emerging trends of AI psychosis and chatbot-derived [00:09:00] delusions.
[00:09:00] In this season, we're widening our aperture to examine AI's relationship to a broader phenomenon, the end of the world. The tech industry predicts that artificial intelligence will inevitably usher in a new era of human flourishing, or it might cause the end of the world. Depends on who you talk to. Why is the word apocalypse suddenly on the tip of every tongue?
[00:09:27] Is this a serious concern? Haven't we always been predicting doomsday and always been wrong? Is this historical moment unique? What does the end of the world even mean? I've spent two years speaking with philosophers, scientists, historians, and theologians about the apocalypse and how thinking about it shapes the human mind, and the people actually building the technology that might make our nightmares a reality or our salvation.
[00:09:54] Welcome to season two of Suspicious Minds: AI and the [00:10:00] Apocalypse.
[00:10:04] Doctors Joel and Ian Gold, brothers and authors of the book Suspicious Minds: How Culture Shapes Madness, return to ground our discussions in current psychological and philosophical discourse. They're also here to make sure I don't make things up and get the fundamentals of psychology wrong, though I can't promise I'll always get it right, even with their sage guidance.
[00:10:25] Dr. Joel Gold is mainly a clinical psychiatrist, but he has, like, nine other really impressive jobs, and Dr. Ian Gold is the chair of philosophy at McGill, a brilliant thinker, and one of the world's nicest people. So the first time that I interviewed you for this show was less than a year ago, and I almost find that hard to believe because so much has changed in, in the kind of- Yeah
[00:10:48] cultural conversation around artificial intelligence has changed. From your perspective, how different are things now in terms of culture in [00:11:00] general and our, our relationship to artificial intelligence now than 10 months ago?
[00:11:04] IAN GOLD, PHD: Yeah. I, uh, uh, I think that, um, the effect of large language models on cultural perceptions of AI has been extraordinary.
[00:11:13] I think we can't underestimate it. You have the feeling, I think it's an illusory feeling, but anyway, you have the feeling that you're talking to, uh, something that can be called intelligent, and in fact, I think we can say more strongly, you have the feeling that you're talking to a person. Now, so, so there's a cultural change that comes from having that experience.
[00:11:36] Now, that's a separate question from the question of whether AI is actually progressing in ways that should make us worried or should make us more excited.
[00:11:46] DR JOEL GOLD: Nothing has evolved in my mind this quickly. I mean, I guess going back to the pandemic, you know, things happened in the space of days and weeks, but it wasn't like my thoughts changed.
[00:11:58] But in no [00:12:00] way have, uh, have my thoughts about something changed this dramatically. If we have another conversation in eight months, assuming we're both here, I don't know that it'll change with respect to the, the fear. The kind of the specifics may, may change, but the overall gloom and doom using the Cold War as a parallel and people who were frightened, um, say after the Cuban Missile Crisis were still really scared 10 years later and 20 years later, and to some degree still, although that's been eclipsed, um, largely by, you know, by the fears around AI.
[00:12:42] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Is, is there the possibility that a lot of this apocalyptic thinking we're, we're, are, a l- so many of us are experiencing surrounding AI could be veering into the territory of delusions? [00:13:00]
[00:13:00] IAN GOLD, PHD: That's a hard question. The apocalypse plays a central role in probably the most famous extended study of delusions ever carried out, which is the memoir of, uh, Daniel Paul Schreber called M-Memoir of My, uh, Nervous Illness That's the English translation.
[00:13:22] Schreber was himself German, and the original was written in German. Schreber was a judge at the end of the 19th century who developed psychotic illness, and he spent most of his life in an asylum. And he wrote this memoir of his religious revelations. The central delusion that he had was that God had destroyed the entire world with the exception of him, and that God was planning to repopulate the world with him.
[00:13:57] And in order to repopulate the world with him, he had to become [00:14:00] a woman. And so God was turning him into a woman. The apocalypse has this, instead of this paranoid flavor, right, this frightening flavor, it has a grandiose flavor. Because, of course, the apocalypse has suddenly made him the most important human being ever to have lived.
[00:14:18] He's going to be the mother generation of human beings. And because of his salience in the history of psychiatry, I think apocalypse delusions are well known.
[00:14:29] SEAN KING O'GRADY: We'll return in later episodes to further explore the grandiose flavor of apocalyptic thinking, and specifically the language of the tech community as they so frequently pronounce the world will be imminently saved or doomed.
[00:14:42] But before we move on, I have one more question for Joel. And it's because I want to be able to better understand my own fears about AI. Could this simply be a reflection of my own thinking? Is it healthy to be thinking about apocalypse and why do we think [00:15:00] about apocalypse?
[00:15:01] DR JOEL GOLD: You know, I think about anxiety as an internal state as opposed to fear.
[00:15:07] If a tiger is chasing me, I am afraid and I should be afraid and run away. Anxiety often feels, you know, the sort of unclear, why am I feeling this way? It's awful and I don't know why. But now we've moved from a place of anxiety to fear. It is appropriate to be afraid of these technologies. Someone comes to me and says, I'm not sleeping because I'm afraid.
[00:15:39] What do I do with that? Do I prescribe them something to help them sleep and say, you know, good luck with that? For me, as a psychotherapist, it's still most useful to focus on the real fear, again, founded in [00:16:00] reality, and see if there is some resonance with something more of an anxious place within them that might be specific to their history.
[00:16:12] their unconscious because I can do something with that. I can't, you know, do anything with someone fearing the end of humanity because of, uh, of AI or, or other technologies.
[00:16:25] SEAN KING O'GRADY: To paraphrase Joseph Heller's Catch-22, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean AI won't destroy the world. There's plenty of fear out there.
[00:16:33] Are these delusions? Are they based on reality or based on marketing hype? Are these warnings to be taken seriously? How do we think about any of this in a way that's useful? That's what I'm trying to figure out. This season is called AI and the Apocalypse. Let's make sure we're all on the same page about what those terms mean.
[00:16:53] AI is used really broadly right now. It is used to describe chatbots. It is the technology that's going to [00:17:00] replace your job. It's the software generating the graphics that create a clip you'll see on TikTok of the Incredible Hulk kissing Deadpool with the caption, "Hollywood is so cooked." It's in every commercial.
[00:17:11] It powers your gambling apps, your TV, maybe even your car. It's quite literally everywhere. But what does it technically mean? Here's how some of our experts described it last season. So I asked Nick Haber, a professor and researcher from Stanford, the epicenter of AI at academia, to, as simply as possible, just explain to us what AI actually is.
[00:17:37] NICK HABER: Oh, it's a toughie. Um, in, in some way, uh, it, it's a grand project to attempt to replicate aspects of human cognition or inspired by human cognition, make useful things that have some interesting form of cognition.
[00:17:56] SEAN KING O'GRADY: And now let's hear from Nate Sheridan, an ethicist and philosopher [00:18:00] at the University of Hong Kong and a research affiliate at the Center for AI Safety.
[00:18:04] I think you sit at a really interesting intersection of the sort of ideas and technology, so you might be the perfect person to explain, like, what is a large language model?
[00:18:14] NATE SHARADIN: Yeah. So I mean, the large language models that people are interacting with on the internet when they go to things like ChatGPT, you could think of them as, like, very carefully scaffolded LLMs.
[00:18:27] So large language models compress, like, very large data sets of text into, uh, something called weights, model weights. Uh, and then when you do inference over these weights, it become-- it's very good at predicting the next token. Uh, this is why some people have called it, like, fancy auto-complete. Um, so, uh, it's very good at, um, knowing how to, like, continue on, um- a particular, like, selection of [00:19:00] text.
[00:19:00] So chatbots like ChatGPT are just... think of them as LLMs that have been very carefully designed to be good at conversation.
[00:19:09] SEAN KING O'GRADY: What does AI mean to the people that are actually building AI? What does it mean to the people selling it? It's hard to pin down exactly. Here's tech writer Owen Higgins on how the term is used by AI advocates.
[00:19:23] What does the term AI mean if we're to take its biggest boosters and investors at face value?
[00:19:30] EOIN HIGGINS: I think that they would say that AI is a world-changing, earth-shattering technology that has the potential and likely the possibility to reshape the entire economy, if not the entire world. It's something that is going to both take your job and make your job easier.
[00:19:53] It is so powerful it could destroy the world, and it also needs to be invested in so that [00:20:00] it can be deployed for gains in productivity, fantastical gains in robotics and software, uh, robotics, whether hardware or software. But a lot of those ways are not going to really be seen in the way that the boosters talk about them, right?
[00:20:16] So boosters often talk about AI in a way that takes the public's ignorance about what AI really is and just kind of says, "This is a thing that can think and can do things, and so it's going to talk to you. It has a personality. It has its own agency." I, I think that it's a little more complicated than that.
[00:20:37] It doesn't have a personality. It doesn't have goals. It doesn't have desires.
[00:20:41] ALEX HANNA: Everything has been looped into this term AI. It's kind of why I put AI in quotes. Everything has been colonized by the term now.
[00:20:48] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This is Alex Hanna, sociologist, podcaster, and co-author, along with Emily Bender, of the essential book, The AI Con, further discussing how AI is used by the AI community itself in the [00:21:00] grand existential claims that justify its incredibly high valuations.
[00:21:05] ALEX HANNA: So in our book, The AI Con, we discuss two camps. One are AI boosters and one are AI doomers. And they like to pose themselves as diametrically opposed, and that they are effectively saying different things. So AI boosters say that, "Well, we need to build AI, and it's going to lead to an era of incredibly cheap goods, so much productivity that the working class is effectively going to not have anything to do.
[00:21:40] We're actually gonna have to institute universal basic income." AI doomers, on the other hand, say, "We're gonna make this thing, and if we don't teach it correctly, then it's going to kill us all." And this is exemplified pretty well by a few different authors. Eliezer Yudkowsky is kind of one of the main figures [00:22:00] here.
[00:22:00] He wrote a book literally called If You Build It, It'll Kill Us, or It'll Destroy Us. I actually f- don't know the exact title, but it's effectively this doomer, this doomsday thing, and he's this kind of patron saint of, of doomerism.
[00:22:14] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Alex is referencing If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, which is a fascinating and controversial book Nate and Eliezer are associated with the Machine Intelligence Research Institute
[00:22:26] ALEX HANNA: These are effectively two sides of the same coin.
[00:22:30] So AI boosters say AI is a thing. It's a coherent thing. It is important to build. It is necessary to human progress, and it's inevitable, and, uh, it's gonna lead us to salvation. Whereas AI doomers say AI is a thing. It is, um, necessary to build. It is, uh, the next step in human progress. It's inevitable, and it's going to kill us all.
[00:22:57] MALO BOURGON: So my name's Malo Borgon. [00:23:00] I'm the CEO of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. So we've been around for twenty-six years now. The way that some people, uh, summarize us is that we're the OG doomers. And the reason I kinda don't like that term, um, is because, you know, I think some of the people who, you know, are described as doomers, certainly some of the, the ones that are seen as maybe kinda like the most hardcore doomers, are also some of the folks who are earliest to thinking about, you know, w- whether we could build very powerful AI systems and what that would mean for the world, and potentially being, you know, e- very excited for the upside if we could get it right.
[00:23:32] SEAN KING O'GRADY: What is AI? What is artificial intelligence?
[00:23:35] MALO BOURGON: I like to, like, kind of, like, go back to when the field was founded, and people can read about it, but basically, the goal was there was a bunch of scientists who were kinda like, "These humans, we're doing this thinky thing. We're able to kind of, like, learn things in one domain and apply them to another domain and create plans and develop technologies and solve problems.
[00:23:53] Wouldn't it be cool if we could make computers do that? That would be super helpful. We could have them do a bunch of work and [00:24:00] labor, and maybe we could make them really smart, you know, maybe smarter than us, and then we could use them to, to help us do all the things." Like, most of the positive changes in human welfare throughout our history have been the product of us applying our intelligence to, to solving problems and developing new technologies.
[00:24:14] What if we could have AI systems do that? And so when I'm talking about AI I basically just mean in general AI systems that are capable of kind of generally doing the thinky thing that we're doing. The term AI kind of drifted from that meaning. They thought that they could maybe make some real progress on that in like a summer.
[00:24:30] Uh, turned out the problem was real hard and, you know, seventy years later, the field hadn't made that much progress on that kind of original goal. They had developed a bunch of systems that were good at specific things. You know, we could make AI systems that played chess better than a human grandmaster or were, you know, very good at image classification or other very narrow things.
[00:24:49] So AI kind of came to mean automating various types of intellectual or physical labor with systems, but they were very narrow. They were like very good at particular things. [00:25:00] And so the field kind of developed a new term to talk about the original thing, and they called that AGI, so artificial general intelligence, where the general is trying to point at this like general ability.
[00:25:09] In the words of, of Dario, the, the CEO of Anthropic, he wrote an essay, you know, talking about where he thinks this is all headed. And one of the ways that he described it is if we actually succeeded at building, you know, AGI systems the way that he means it, that this would be something like having a country of geniuses in a data center.
[00:25:25] The thing that I kind of try to imagine is, you know, what if we had AI systems that in some sense had kind of the ability to do most of the cognitive tasks that we could do That would kind of be AGI. So that could be math, that could be programming, that could be thinking strategically, that could be being very persuasive.
[00:25:45] AI systems, you can think of them kind of as weird alien minds that in some sense can do all the things that we can do, at least right now, you know, 'cause robotics is a separate question. How do we interact with the world? That's a little further behind than the, the frontier AI systems, [00:26:00] um, these LLMs. Uh, but the goal is not chatbots.
[00:26:03] The goal is, you know, agents. Um, you know, you're an agent, I am an agent, you know, I have some goal or some task at work, and I can just go off into the world and come up with plans and do work to try and accomplish things in the world. Um, but that's the type of AI system that they're trying to build. It doesn't seem like there's any reason why something like human-level intelligence is some sort of peak that we should be able to scale well beyond that.
[00:26:28] So you go from having a country of geniuses in a data center to having a country of super intelligences at a data center, which you can just think of as, like, just b- much, much better at all the things.
[00:26:38] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Basically, AI is a blanket term that refers to an expanding suite of computer processes. But throughout this series, unless referring to something specific like a chatbot, when we use the term AI, we're talking about this broad, almost abstract concept.
[00:26:54] We're talking about the AI of science fiction, which is becoming science reality, something closer to [00:27:00] AGI, or artificial general intelligence, or ASI, artificial super intelligence. Yes, those are two distinct things. We are talking both about the technology that empowers unconsented deepfakes and the research tool that may enable the greatest scientific breakthroughs in the history of humanity.
[00:27:17] Uh, this is, to paraphrase legendary Simpsons writer John Swartzwelder, potentially the cause of or solution to all of life's problems. It's the big thing that will change all things. So that's AI. Very easy, very clear, right? Now, the second part of our series title, Apocalypse. This word commonly refers to the end of the world or some great cataclysm that befalls humanity.
[00:27:46] It's typically not the total end of things, though, hence the endless amount of post-apocalyptic movies and TV shows. But it's bad news, like really, really terrible news. So what does the term really mean? I spoke with Professor Judith Wolfe from the [00:28:00] School of Divinity at St. Andrew's on the language of apocalypse.
[00:28:04] JUDITH WOLFE: The Greek apocalypse, apokalyptein means to unveil, to uncover, describing either the spiritual world that we can't see or the future that we can't yet see. So an unveiling of things that are ordinarily hidden to humans.
[00:28:21] SEAN KING O'GRADY: So apocalypse is an unveiling. It's the revelation of hidden truths. As with the Cthulhu passage we began the episode with, there's this idea that not all that is concealed should be unveiled.
[00:28:32] Here's Timothy Morton, a professor of English at Rice University, and most recently the author of Hell, In Search of a Christian Ecology, digging further into the word apocalypse and the great spilling of secrets.
[00:28:46] TIMOTHY MORTON: When we talk about apocalypse, are we really talking about something like a spoiler? The apo part of the word apocalypse is privative, right?
[00:28:57] It means on or non [00:29:00] or sort of off, something like that, right? And the calypto, calyptoin is to hide, right? So it's like you're unhiding, disclosing might be another way of putting it, right? What's interesting about that is that, of course, there is a kind of initial hiddenness, right? There is something that requires disclosure.
[00:29:22] When people say apocalypse, they often mean, well, now the gloves are off and the play is over, and we're gonna see who's been naughty and who's been nice, right? And someone's got a list, and they're gonna be sorting the sheep from the goats, and we're gonna get to see the reality underneath. Yeah. But what if what's being disclosed is the impossibility of that, right?
[00:29:47] What, what if actually when you think deeply about apocalypse, what you run up against is the possibility that this-- what is being disclosed is that you can never rip [00:30:00] the appearance off of something to see the workings of the real thing underneath?
[00:30:06] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I like the way Tim puts it. The apocalypse is like a spoiler.
[00:30:10] We're going to find out the great truths, even if the truth is that there is no truth. And by the way, I promise all of this relates to Grok, Claude, and ChatGPT. Just stick with me for a bit. But for now, there's another term worth defining, which I never really had to say out loud, I think, ever in my life until doing this podcast.
[00:30:29] Eschatological. Last season, we had to grapple with anthropomorphizing. This season, we're grappling with eschatological and eventually phenomenological, but we'll get to that later. Can you define eschatology?
[00:30:44] JUDITH WOLFE: Eschatology, uh, comes from Greek word eschaton, the last things, and so it's the study of the last things, and the last things really include both collective and individual ends and endings.
[00:30:57] So eschatology traditionally comprises [00:31:00] both the study of the end of the world, how we might conceive the world coming to an end, which also includes questions about the direction of the world as a whole.
[00:31:08] SEAN KING O'GRADY: What made you personally want to spend your life researching the end of things?
[00:31:15] JUDITH WOLFE: What else is worth researching?
[00:31:18] Um, I think what's so fascinating about eschatology is that it points us precisely to the, to the limits of our knowledge because this is all about things which neither speculation nor experience can really give us a clear sense of. These are not things that we can wholly answer either from out of experience or from out of rational deduction.
[00:31:40] It becomes a question of what are the constitutive limits of human knowledge? And in the face of these sort of radical limits of human knowledge about things which are nevertheless hugely significant for humans, how do we live in that? Uh, how do we live in and out of that kind of- [00:32:00] Unknowing
[00:32:01] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I love this idea.
[00:32:03] What else is really worth researching other than the limits of our knowledge? I wanna return to Timothy Morton now, because often when we're talking about the end of the world, we're talking about the end of one kind of thinking or the primacy of a certain kind of knowledge. Sure, sometimes we mean that Bruce Willis failed to accomplish whatever tedious thing he was doing at the end of the movie Armageddon, and the world explodes.
[00:32:27] But more often than not, we're talking about systems of beliefs and different ways of living. This is a big idea we're going to explore in greater depth later in the series. But when we talk about the end of the world, exactly whose world is ending? I think when I first became aware of your work, it was my understanding of something that you had said in your book Hyperobjects, which is that the world has already ended.
[00:32:55] What do you mean by that?
[00:32:56] TIMOTHY MORTON: Let's just cut to the chase. Stuff that's been [00:33:00] happening to everybody who isn't a white guy for a long time is now happening to white guys like me. We get to have the fun, unquote, of all the stuff that we imposed on everybody else. That's what I mean by the end of the world.
[00:33:17] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Tim might not be everyone's cup of tea.
[00:33:19] Then again, neither is anyone else in this series. But I found the most interesting ideas almost always come from the people who make you the least comfortable. So back to Tim
[00:33:29] TIMOTHY MORTON: I'm gonna say it again. I feel like I get paid to say terrible, rude things. Only very few incredibly insulated, very rich, powerful people can slightly enjoy it, um, as long as they don't have a conscience.
[00:33:42] And that's what I mean by the end of the world. It's, it's the end of the idea of nature as a kind of stage set on which human being meanings can be played out to some kind of audience, possibly also of, of the same human beings, right? And, um, we like to talk [00:34:00] about, "Oh, it's gonna be the end of the world.
[00:34:02] It's gonna be the apocalypse." But the end of what, right? It's basically the end of a whole bunch of projects that, that never were that great in the first place. It's a little bit like the, the end of the world as a concept and, and the end of the idea that the, that the world is ending, well, it's, it's gonna be this incredibly long-term drag for everybody until such time as people decide to, to treat each other nicer, to use the technical term
[00:34:32] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I've spent some serious time thinking about this, that the end of the world is the end of the idea that the world is ending. It kinda twists your brains in knots for a minute, but the idea here is that the great unveiling is that there's nothing there. This is the black seas of infinity, just endless nothing.
[00:34:52] We'll return to the idea later that talking about the world ending is also exposing biases about what kind of [00:35:00] world is worth saving. But I do wanna clarify our own point of view a bit. In this series, we're specifically discussing the artificial intelligence and system of beliefs that originates in Silicon Valley.
[00:35:13] So when we discuss the end of the world, it's often going to be through the lens of what we understand having been raised in and steeped in Western culture, philosophy, and religion. This isn't to ignore or minimize the global influence and contributions to Silicon Valley contemporary American culture and America itself.
[00:35:30] It's to find an entry point into this Byzantine subject matter and to contend with epistemologies most regularly represented in our news, media, and popular culture. The differences between the guiding philosophies of Silicon Valley AI culture and Chinese AI culture, for instance, are worthy of their own podcast series, truly.
[00:35:50] So I hope someone makes that, but we will only touch on it briefly as a counterpoint of sorts in our series. Perspective matters a great deal in these [00:36:00] discussions because throughout history, plenty of people have thought they were living through the end times. In fact, if our research is remotely accurate, most people during most times have felt the end of the world was at least possible in their own lifetime, if not likely.
[00:36:15] And in an apocalypse as a human extinction kind of way- Everyone's always been wrong, as evidenced by the fact that we're all still here talking about this. In the next episode, we're going deep into the history of apocalyptic thinking, but there's one really important question I want to foreground now: Is this moment in time different?
[00:36:34] Everyone always thinks their special place in history is unique, but like right now, I don't know, maybe it is. In terms of the world ending, we're absolutely in unprecedented territory and have been for some time, and there's one big explosive reason why. The Trinity Test, the first real world test of the atomic bomb, which took place just over 80 [00:37:00] years ago.
[00:37:00] This is something we'll reference regularly throughout this series. Here's Professor Judith Wolfe again explaining how our ability to destroy humanity at the push of a button from that moment onward has affected the field of eschatology.
[00:37:14] JUDITH WOLFE: I think the last three-quarter century or so has been unprecedented in the history of human thought simply because until then, if we talked about the end of the world at all, we talked about it either in a very abstract scientific register where we speculated about heat death or about, you know, meteors and so forth, or if we spoke about it in a religious register, it was really the purview of religions to think about the end of the world.
[00:37:41] And so It was really all of a sudden that something like the end of the world came within the reach, uh, of human possibility. And so that raised a lot of questions among theologians, of course.
[00:37:54] SEAN KING O'GRADY: J. Robert Oppenheimer, scientific director of the Manhattan Project and overseer of the [00:38:00] Trinity test, famously quoted the Bhagavad Gita, a collection of Hindu scriptures and epic poems, as he watched the very first mushroom cloud rise into the clear desert sky on July 16th, 1945 at 5:29 AM Mountain wartime, stating, "I am become Death, destroyer of worlds."
[00:38:22] This is eerily similar man-as-God framing to the language we hear from AI CEOs today. Even the name Trinity invokes religion, specifically the Christian idea of the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit. And one quick aside, a more modern translation of the Bhagavad Gita passage is, "Look at me. I am time itself, and I must one day destroy your world as I have always done."
[00:38:51] I find this really interesting because this is a Westernization of an Eastern concept that changes something [00:39:00] cyclical to give it a clear end, and we actually see echoes of this in Western and Eastern views of AI. All right. Considering I brought this up twice now, maybe we will cover the differences between ideas, philosophies around AI between the East and the West in this show.
[00:39:17] But for now, back to Trinity. Much like stated concerns from today's business leaders, the Manhattan Project scientists weren't sure mankind would even survive the first test of this world-changing bomb. There was sincere concern that the bomb could ignite the nitrogen in the atmosphere and trigger a chain reaction that would propagate and consume the entire Earth.
[00:39:39] Fortunately, that hasn't happened. Not yet, anyway. Yeah, and by the way, there's a small movie Christopher Nolan made about Oppenheimer and the Manhattan Project called Oppenheimer if you're interested in learning more. I'd actually read the book it's based on, the brilliantly titled American Prometheus, maybe, like, 10 years ago, but while [00:40:00] watching Nolan's movie about 1945 in 2023, I just couldn't stop thinking about AI.
[00:40:06] It's wildly relevant, and even more so today in 2026 than it was just a few years ago, and I think that says something about the speed at which things are happening. One of the things we're looking at is the potential likelihood of, of an AI apocalypse, which could take any number of forms. So what has it been like for you as you've been in this field of study as a new potential apocalypse agent has come into being?
[00:40:33] Has this been a, a, another radical shift, or is it sort of an evolution of the previous one?
[00:40:38] JUDITH WOLFE: I mean, to some extent, this is a new moment in history. Clearly, we have never created something that has put us in the position both of creator in some way and the potential inferior of, uh, of something that we've created.
[00:40:53] But on the other hand, uh, I think this is a version of something that has happened over and over [00:41:00] again in Western history. I think studying Western history, one of the things that we see as a pattern emerging again and again is that one of the basic human needs being a sense of orientation in the world, a sense that we understand the world around us, such that we can act in it, such that we can orient ourselves in it.
[00:41:18] And so whenever in history there have been times when multiple forms of crisis have all come together, political crisis, intellectual crisis, crisis, in other words, of what we understand as knowledge, economic crisis, natural crisis, when things have seemed so bad that they've threatened our very understanding of the world, those were always times when eschatological or apocalyptic thought has surged in the population.
[00:41:46] Partly because things have seemed so bad that they can only betoken one thing, which is the end of the world. Um, and partly because apocalyptic thought, eschatological thought can, and again, I think that this is erroneous, but it's [00:42:00] clearly how it's often functioned, can give people a sense that they have this almost transcendent, supernatural key to the interpretation of what's going on, and therefore have a sense or have the ability to make sense of things where sense is really unavailable to them, where things just don't make sense anymore, where there's no firm ground under their feet.
[00:42:22] And then the assignation of different roles, you know, set roles, the Antichrist, the Savior, et cetera, can give people a sense that they can orient themselves in a world that's otherwise falling apart.
[00:42:33] SEAN KING O'GRADY: In very broad terms, it's essential to think of apocalyptic discourse being pre- and post-Trinity.
[00:42:40] There's a time when the end of the world was the domain of gods or forces beyond our control, and there's a time when the end of the world can be engineered, and unfortunately quite easily by humans. Confused, angry, jealous, selfish, joyous, brilliant, and beautiful humans I asked Ed Simon, a [00:43:00] professor at Carnegie Mellon University and expert on all things apocalypse, about the historical importance of Trinity.
[00:43:06] ED SIMON: The Trinity test, the, uh, Manhattan Project itself, in terms of the cultural history of apocalypticism was a massive sea change. And you do see it in evangelical Christianity that kind of embraced understandably the possibility of nuclear war as a means of the end of the world being facilitated, right?
[00:43:25] Uh, but I think in secular thinking as well it made a huge difference because what the possibility of nuclear war finally manifested was the actual chance of humanity being able to enact a type of apocalypse on the Earth in a way that they could not before, right? Like people could talk about the end of the world up until 1945, but we couldn't do it ourselves.
[00:43:49] Whereas I think once you have, I mean, I don't know, there's like 3,000 nuclear warheads spread across seven, eight, nine different countries that have nuclear capability. Maybe it's higher than that even.
[00:43:59] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Oh [00:44:00] It is. 3,900 warheads are currently actively deployed, around 2,100 of which are on high alert, ready to launch on short notice.
[00:44:09] This means push of button, boom, 2,100 world-ending bombs. But there are believed to be over 12,000 total nuclear warheads in the world, and this is actually down from a total of 70,000 during the Cold War. This is the last encouraging news you'll receive over the course of our eight episodes. I apologize in advance for any sleeplessness, rumination, or unwanted weight loss or gain you experience as a result of listening to this series.
[00:44:35] ED SIMON: I mean, in 20 minutes, the whole world could be, like, reduced to radioactive ash. That is a difference, uh, from what the world was like in 1944 versus what it is like every year after that, and I think that can't help but have a tremendous cultural change. Uh, I mean, we have all... Unless you are, um, you know, well into your 90s, you cannot remember a world where that was not a possibility, [00:45:00] and I think that that hangs over everyone's head if they're being honest about it and they're being aware of it.
[00:45:06] And sometimes you have it, um, kind of, um, shunted into traditional religious rhetoric and language, which is kinda ready-made for talking about those things. But certainly you've had any number of secular explorations of what, like, a nuclear apocalypse itself would mean. But I think it's foundationally the most important event in recent human history because of how it changed what it means to be a human in such a fundamental way.
[00:45:31] SEAN KING O'GRADY: You wrote about two cultural responses to nuclear war. The c- there was a Christian fundamentalism and an Aquarian counterculturalism. Mm. Can you tell me a bit about that?
[00:45:43] ED SIMON: I ask what are the different ways in which people could react to this reality that we now live in a world where human beings are capable of destroying the world in a matter of minutes, right?
[00:45:54] Where we've kind of, like, immanentized the apocalypse in some ways. And so there's a, a Christian [00:46:00] fundamentalist reaction to that, which I think is predictable and makes sense. But then I also make the argument that the kind of, like, New Age Aquarian 1960s ethos was also a reaction to that. Now, you're talking about people who were children when, uh, Hiroshima happened, and now they're adults, and I think that there is a kind of way in which that was a manifest reaction to The horror of, uh, what nuclear war portended and that you had a new type of spirituality or religious exploration that reacted to that in a way that was different to, but kind of equivalent to, the Christian fundamentalist reaction towards it.
[00:46:40] But I can't imagine, like, the flower power generation existing in a world without nuclear weapons in some ways, right? Uh, and I don't think it's often spoken of necessarily in that kind of way, but there were, like, clear millennial and apocalyptic overtones to how a, a lot of people at that time talked about a kind of unveiling.
[00:46:58] I mean, tune in, turn in, [00:47:00] drop out from Timothy Leary is an unveiling, right, in a lot of ways, uh, as an ethos. So there's a kind of a apocalyptic changed consciousness idea that is, uh, im- implicit in that.
[00:47:11] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Do you think we'll see a similar philosophical or, or religious schism or reaction to the current moment with AI and all the other compounding, uh, potential apocalypse agents?
[00:47:22] I hope so.
[00:47:23] ED SIMON: I feel like we've got a kind of a crisis of meaning in some ways. There's a lot of embrace of irrational, kind of dangerous beliefs that people adhere to because of that sort of crisis of meaning. So it would be, I think, fascinating to see a, a kind of a, a renewal that asks some fundamental kinds of questions and maybe supplies a type of meaning for people or allows them to explore what it means to be a human being in a way that isn't just tied into kind of transnational capitalism and the reactionary politics that supports that.
[00:47:56] I don't know what that would look like necessarily.
[00:47:59] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I don't know [00:48:00] what that would look like either. Dorian Lynskey literally wrote the book on stories we tell about the end of the world, and what's so interesting to me is how he distinguishes the way we talk about death and destruction with the way we talk about paradise or utopia or the time when we will all start being nice to each other, as Tim Morton said, or however you personally wanna think about it.
[00:48:20] DORIAN LYNSKEY: As I was writing the book over and over again, you would see versions of either Revelation or the flood. You would see it in apocalyptic fiction and post-apocalyptic fiction and catastrophe fiction and on and on and on. And then the way people talked about fear of civilizational collapse, the way survivalists talked, the way people talked about overpopulation, the way people talked about AI.
[00:48:43] It's just, it, it never stopped, and I was, "Oh God, this is so deep in our brains," and it doesn't matter if you have never had any religious faith. These narratives are there. You know, they manifest themselves in politics and in science and in [00:49:00] art. We cannot get away with that idea of the great everything is degenerate and failing.
[00:49:07] And then there will be some cleansing violence and we will be reborn in this life or the next. And we keep coming back to that. And it keeps turning out that the destruction is an awful lot easier than the rebirth. That's the problem. It's really, really easy to knock things down and it's very, very hard to rebuild them.
[00:49:33] And that's the problem with apocalyptic thinking is that even in the book of Revelation, the violence and the war and the fire and the demons take up an awful lot of that book. And then literally in the final pages, it's like, oh, and then it's all fine. Then there's paradise. And you're kind of like, is paradise on earth or in heaven?
[00:49:55] And it doesn't really say. What does it look like? What do people do there? Don't [00:50:00] really know. Like the writer of Revelation does not care.
[00:50:05] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Let me interrupt Dorian for a second to confess, Father forgive me. Despite eight years of Catholic school, I just read Revelation in its entirety for the first time while doing research for this project.
[00:50:17] And man, it is a wild read. Deeply psychedelic. Gives the Tibetan Book of the Dead a run for its money. 10-10. Would recommend.
[00:50:26] DORIAN LYNSKEY: He will go into enormous detail about the torture and Satan and the description of the beasts with like lions heads and serpents tails and all of that stuff he loves. And when it comes to describing utopia and peace and happiness, he just kind of like tunes out.
[00:50:45] It's very lovely lines, big beautiful lines at the end of that book. But he doesn't want to describe that. He doesn't know what that's going to look like. And that's the problem. We never really do. What does the AI utopia look like? People aren't really, we don't really [00:51:00] know. We're not very good at imagining the perfect world, but we're very good at imagining destroying the world.
[00:51:08] SEAN KING O'GRADY: We're not very good at imagining the perfect world, but we're very good at imagining destroying the world. Elon Musk recently tweeted that the future of AI abundance is such that every single person will be able to live in their very own penthouse apartment. Think about it for a minute. This is notable for a couple things.
[00:51:33] One, the hilarious logistics of every single person on the top floor of their very own building. And two, it's kind of lame. Is this really what people want if they have Elon's proposed universal high income? Personally, I'd rather be at that much memed cave rave from the second Matrix movie with like 10,000 other people who never have to go to work again.
[00:51:56] Seriously, if the best case scenario [00:52:00] of AI abundance is that everyone lives in isolation at the top floor of different buildings, and the worst case is the end of humanity, and we're just blazing forward, damn the consequences, I'm really happy that it's so easy to make fun of, but it's actually scary, too.
[00:52:17] But I truly, I find this stuff genuinely frightening, and a lot of people do. That same passage about Cthulhu that we began with is also cited in the book Bunker by Bradley Garrett, who we'll hear from directly later in this series. The focus of his book is doomsday prepping, and of this passage- Garrett writes, "Many of the preppers exhibit a clear sense of dread with respect to our collective trajectory as a species.
[00:52:45] Dread differs from fear, both because it is about the future rather than the present, and also because it stems from a danger not immediately present or even discernible. In other words, fear has an [00:53:00] object. Dread does not. And it is, I believe, the dominant effect of our era." Wow, that's heavy. Dread might also be a way to categorize our relationship to AI.
[00:53:14] It is promised to be something epic-defining, but we're not quite sure what. It could elevate our species, but we don't know yet exactly how, or it could mean the end of all civilization and life on Earth through means which we can't really articulate, but sound really bad. I just need to throw this out there too before anyone accuses me or this show of being zealously anti-AI.
[00:53:39] I'm not. I'm excited about the potential of AI. Seriously. I wanna live in a Jetsons future as much as the biggest AI booster. I would love for us all to have universal high income that would allow for my kids to spend their entire future on a French Riviera holiday if that's what they want. But I'm also truly terrified their [00:54:00] future could end up much darker as a result of us incorrectly implementing AI into our world.
[00:54:05] And, and it's really the uncertainty, uh, that we know something's going to change, but we don't know how, we don't know when, and that's what causes this dread. This is what we're digging into over the next episodes. What do we do with our dread?
[00:54:21] Ignore it because AI might end up being false hype or a panacea for the world's problems?
[00:54:26] Take it seriously because the means of mass destruction are so readily available, and quite frankly, we're really lucky that in seventy-five years of having access to all these nuclear weapons, we haven't blown each other up. Do we find solace in histories of the apocalypse or the millennia of art we've created to reckon with these thoughts?
[00:54:44] And in case this all sounds too abstract or dark to listen to while working out or doing your dishes, we're also talking about how demons are literally real Here's Timothy Morton again on artificial intelligence and actual demons
[00:54:59] TIMOTHY MORTON: Sort of [00:55:00] intuitive way that people have started to talk about it as a sort of scary kind of demonic, right?
[00:55:06] Demonic literally is ano- it's another Greek word, right? It, it has to do with influences that we cannot perceive, right? Like you're being affected by something that you can't point to, which is why in, you know, the old-fashioned days of Stripe, um, I'm old enough to remember the early email software. There was the mailer demon was the thing that you'd see very, very often.
[00:55:26] When you get the email, it would say, "Mailer demon this and that," and blah, blah, blah. The demon being a process that's operating in the background to send you the message, right? Above and beyond angels versus demons, it's that what is demonic is influences that cannot be perceived, that are nevertheless influencing one, right?
[00:55:45] And so to that extent, sort of thinking of AI as a kind of demonic force is absolutely accurate without any moral necessarily or aesthetic kind of judgment about that. But just [00:56:00] building this satanic version, demonic version of what is already a problem. You know, there are so many stories about the devil.
[00:56:08] You know, the devil comes along and goes, "You, you can... If you do s- sign your soul away on this piece of paper here, then I'll give you seven wishes." They usually don't say that part out loud very loudly, right? "I'll give you seven wishes." And you wish for the thing, and you get exactly what you want, right?
[00:56:24] The devil or the magic fish that popped out of the ocean, right? The magic fish pops out and goes, "You can have three wishes." And the guy goes, "Oh, I want to see my son back from the war." And the fish goes, "Okay." Boom, along comes a coffin with the son in it, dead. Yeah. "And I want 100 pieces of gold." "Oh yeah, sure.
[00:56:42] That's compensation 'cause your son got killed." And the only sensible thing to do then is for the guy to wish that he never had the wishes in the first place, right? And this is the situation we're in. Let's build the perfect servant. What could go wrong? You know, the... Every story about the devil in the world is the story of the [00:57:00] perfect servant who then becomes the ultimate master by doing exactly what you tell them to do.
[00:57:06] And this is what software does, right? It does exactly what you tell it to do, no more, no less. And there's the problem.
[00:57:13] SEAN KING O'GRADY: On the next episode of Suspicious Minds: AI and the Apocalypse, where does our doomsday obsession come from? Why are we psychologically predisposed to fantasizing about our own demise?
[00:57:24] It's the origin story of the end of the world.
[00:57:27] KELLY BULKELEY, PHD: There is a darker temptation of apocalyptic thinking that can arise from frustration and powerlessness, a sense that this world is so corrupt, it's just irredeemable, and the only way it can be ever changed or purified is by just, you know, burning the whole thing down.
[00:57:45] SEAN KING O'GRADY: If you're enjoying Suspicious Minds, be sure to follow or subscribe. And if you really like the show, make sure to rate us on Apple Podcasts and like on other platforms. If you want to learn more, you can go to the show notes where you can find links to our socials along with links to [00:58:00] works from our contributors.
[00:58:01] They appreciate your support and so do we.
Episode 02
Magnifica
Humanitas
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[00:00:00] SEAN KING OGRADY: In 1958, Daniel Ellsberg began working at the RAND Corporation as an analyst in nuclear strategy, where he specialized in command and control, specifically looking into the question of who actually had authority to launch nuclear weapons and under what conditions. He held the highest security clearances available and was essentially auditing the entire US nuclear infrastructure.
[00:00:27] He was so good at this job that he was brought into the Kennedy Pentagon as a consultant to the Secretary of Defense, which gave him access to the administration's actual all-out nuclear war plans. And remember, this is at the absolute peak of tensions between the US and Russia in the Cold War. At that moment, a decade before making the decision to release the Pentagon Papers, Ellsberg was faced with another seemingly more simple decision.
[00:00:54] In his new hire paperwork, there was a standard box to check in order to receive his future pension from [00:01:00] RAND. Ellsberg didn't bother to check it because given what he knew about the tense and somewhat haphazardly organized global nuclear situation, he believed he'd never live long enough to receive it.
[00:01:11] Think about that. He didn't bother checking a box on a standardized form to receive money for the rest of his life after he retired because he believed the world would certainly end before he could retire. Humanity would be over before he hit 65. In 2026, Elon Musk similarly recommended that people not bother saving for their retirement.
[00:01:34] He believes it won't matter because productivity increases resulting from artificial intelligence will lead to universal high income, abundance, or some other tech utopia that obviates any need for pedestrian financial considerations, like being able to pay for your kids braces or even groceries. The world will be saved before we retire.
[00:01:53] Humanity will be a techno utopia. Now, this is kind of the same story, but with different [00:02:00] existential disruptions. When we talk about the end of the world, there's almost always a happy ending and a sad ending, endless death or eternal life. The commonality is a moment of revelation from which the world can never be what it once was.
[00:02:17] Welcome to season two of Suspicious Minds: AI and the Apocalypse.
[00:02:27] Quick note before getting into today's episode. We've been working on this series for a while, and about a week before this episode was to be released in May 2026, the Pope weighed in on artificial intelligence and specifically brought questions about AI into the purview of religious thought. The Pope outlined his concerns and ideas in an encyclical entitled Magnifica Humanitas.
[00:02:51] An encyclical, by the way, is like a fancy pope letter, and this all could not possibly be more relevant to this series. This episode in particular [00:03:00] is about how religious thinking and the psychology of the apocalypse are connected. The Pope reinforced the core concerns of this series: the existential threat of AI, its potential to diminish what it means to be human, and what human flourishing actually looks like.
[00:03:15] And to land all of this even more at the very specific intersections of my personal interest, he even invoked Peter Thiel, whose ideas about the Antichrist we will get into later. And he brought up J.R.R. Tolkien, who is evoked constantly throughout this series and in any conversation anyone has with me.
[00:03:34] And by coordinating this announcement with one of the cofounders of Anthropic, the Pope has, in a very strange way, centered again the issue of AI hype. What better hype than to say your tech is so powerful it can only be understood through theological inquisition? Maybe this isn't all hype. Maybe we really have developed technology or stumbled upon a technology that will force us to ask the big questions and [00:04:00] maybe find answers we're really uncomfortable with.
[00:04:02] So special shout out to good friend of the pod, Pope Leo XIV, whose comments we will return to throughout the series. Before we get too deep into it, quick reminder to follow and subscribe depending on where you're listening or watching, so you don't miss an episode or any updates. And if you enjoy the show, please give us a rating.
[00:04:20] We truly appreciate your support. Also, if there's anything you've been wondering about that sits at the intersection of artificial intelligence and the human mind and you'd like to see us look into it, drop us a line on socials or in the comments. Okay, back to the show. In this episode, we're exploring the historical and psychological origins of apocalyptic thinking.
[00:04:41] We discussed the evolving meaning of the word apocalypse in our last episode, but I also want to do a quick refresher here because the concept is so central to our discussion. I spoke with writer and Carnegie Mellon professor Ed Simon on the definition of apocalypse
[00:04:58] ED SIMON: Literally from the Greek, [00:05:00] it implies like an unveiling or a, a revealing of secret truths.
[00:05:06] It has come to mean the end of the world, I think, in popular parlance, and it's certainly been associated with that because the term has been in scriptural and pseudepigraphical literature, has been applied to kind of the unveiling of truths about the end of the world. But strictly speaking, apocalypse is not synonymous with that per se.
[00:05:27] That's more of a kind of cultural accumulation that it has acquired over the centuries.
[00:05:33] SEAN KING OGRADY: And here's James Cussin, philosopher and creator of a thought-provoking YouTube channel you should definitely check out called The Living Philosophy, further discussing what it means in a contemporary context.
[00:05:46] JAMES CUSSEN: It's the, the idea of judgment day in some, in some variety, the day of reckoning when beyond which this world is no more.
[00:05:56] The singularity, uh, is, is a good way of framing the [00:06:00] way I think about, uh, apocalypse.
[00:06:03] SEAN KING OGRADY: We'll go way deeper into the singularity in a later episode, but basically singularity refers to the moment when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence and begins improving itself at a rate we can no longer predict or control.
[00:06:19] JAMES CUSSEN: The singularity is a point beyond which we can no longer see this world, whether that's in a Christian, uh, sense of, you know, Jesus comes back and then this world is at a literal end, or, yeah, the, the rapture of the nerds in the, the technological singularity, or however you frame it.
[00:06:36] SEAN KING OGRADY: Yeah, I love that term you used, rapture of the nerds.
[00:06:39] Can you dig a little deeper on that for me?
[00:06:41] JAMES CUSSEN: You tend to think of nerds as being part of this secular post-religious kind of society, but the way they talk about the singularity is very much, uh, this kind of religious idea and, and the rapture is going to come, and you can see Sam Altman has said that A- AGI or AI is either going to be the best thing ever or the [00:07:00] worst thing ever.
[00:07:00] And so it's this uncertainty which is within the, the Christian idea of the rapture.
[00:07:08] SEAN KING OGRADY: I wanna explore the last thing James said. It's important. The AI apocalypse, like all apocalypses, is going to be the best thing ever or the worst thing ever, Christ or Antichrist. The world will be one of limitless wealth and abundance, or one of endless fire and pestilence.
[00:07:26] Either way, don't worry about your 401because you're not going to need it. We hear it over and over, and we tend to believe it despite every doomsday prophet so far having been wrong. In fact, Wikipedia currently lists 216 predicted dates for the apocalypse. The dates for 195 of them are already in the past.
[00:07:45] A link is in the show notes. It's actually a really fun read. One of my favorite famously wrong prophets is a guy by the name of William Miller. Here's apocalyptic art expert Dorian Lynskey to tell us all about William Miller.
[00:07:58] DORIAN LYNSKEY: During the Second Great [00:08:00] Awakening in the early 19th century America, uh, just a massive explosion of millenarian sects.
[00:08:07] Do you end up getting the, um, you get Jehovah's Witnesses, and you get the Mormons, and you get Seventh Day Adventists.
[00:08:13] SEAN KING OGRADY: Okay, quick note here because this gets a little confusing. We're talking about William Miller, and Dorian just used the term millenarianism. Though they sound very oddly similar, these are distinct words.
[00:08:26] It's not Millerism, it's millenarianism, and we'll define what that means in a second You've been using the term millenarianism. Can you tell me what that refers to?
[00:08:38] DORIAN LYNSKEY: Well, it comes from the concept of the millennium in, in Revelation. People would think that you, you have the Battle of Armageddon, and then you have the end of the world.
[00:08:46] Actually, between Armageddon and the end of the world is 1,000 years of, you know, sort of close to sort of paradise on Earth and the, the reign of Christ on Earth when Satan has been banished, [00:09:00] and then at the end of that thousand years, Satan comes back, and there's another battle, and then he is finally defeated, and then the world ends.
[00:09:07] So millenarian refers to, to that sort of belief in the, in, in apocalyptic narratives. Uh, but then there's disagreement about when the millennium is. Is it taking place now? There was a guy called William Miller. He had calculated the end of the world. He kinda kept the date quite vague, and then one of his followers made it more precise, and Miller went along with it because he was getting so many followers.
[00:09:32] It was a g- sort of an early case of, like, audience capture, where the more people that follow you, the more, um, extreme you get. And everybody's there awaiting the end, and it doesn't come, and so he recalculates and goes, "Ah, no, no," and this is all, you know, going back through the Bible and this code and what I think this date means and so on.
[00:09:51] So then there's another date, and then that is called the Great Disappointment because then people were like, "Oh, this is just wrong. This is not, it's [00:10:00] not happening."
[00:10:02] SEAN KING OGRADY: The Great Disappointment. I just love this so much. And just to make this perfectly clear, William Miller gets all these followers. They believe the world's going to end.
[00:10:12] They sell their possessions. They give their money away. The world doesn't end. Everyone then still follows him. He then predicts a different day at which he believes the world will end. The world then doesn't end, and that is called the Great Disappointment. I just, I just think this is so incredible. All right, back to Dorian.
[00:10:33] DORIAN LYNSKEY: I mean, there were lots of stories of people just giving away all their money and, and climbing up onto a hill dressed in white robes, awaiting the end.
[00:10:43] SEAN KING OGRADY: Millerites giving away all their money and possessions because they were confident the world was ending is not terribly dissimilar from Daniel Ellsberg and Elon Musk's dismissal of prudent financial planning.
[00:10:53] Why do we constantly make these predictions? And more importantly, why do people listen? [00:11:00] Before moving into the idiosyncrasies of the artificial intelligence flavor of apocalyptic thinking, I wanna spend a little time on the psychology of apocalyptic thinking in general. Why do our brains do this? What role does it serve?
[00:11:13] Do we need to think this way? How do we distinguish real danger and harm from run-of-the-mill doomsday fantasizing, which we seem to have some innate proclivity towards? But first, because apocalypticism finds some of its origins in religious thinking, I wanna begin there to see what the religious framing may reveal about our psychology.
[00:11:32] Here's Dorian Lynskey again on humans' apocalyptic thinking.
[00:11:37] DORIAN LYNSKEY: So it seems to have started, and I say seems because we're, we're really going so far back that historians just cannot, uh, be 100% on this, but it seems to have started with the, with the Zoroastrians in Persia.
[00:11:53] SEAN KING OGRADY: Zoroastrianism is a religion that's over 3,000 years old.
[00:11:57] It's truly an ancient religion and is still practiced today [00:12:00] by over 100,000 people. One of its primary features is an eschatological outlook in which its uncreated creator, Ahura Mazda, defeats all evil in the world.
[00:12:12] DORIAN LYNSKEY: uh, with the Zoroastrians in Persia. And the prophet Zoroaster seems to have been the first kind of influential religious leader who suggested that time was a straight line, beginning, middle, end, as opposed to other religions in which it was a cycle.
[00:12:30] For example, in Hinduism and the Kali Yuga, there is a phase of great destruction that we would recognize as apocalyptic. But then that kind of the wheel turns and then you get this boat of rebirth and it goes around and around. So that's more what we might think of as Noah's flood in Genesis. You know, the, the world is virtually entirely wiped out, but it's also wiped clean and there are survivors and they rebuild humanity.
[00:12:55] That, that's more of that sort of cyclical idea. And then [00:13:00] Zoroaster's view of history finds its way somehow into Judaism and therefore Christianity. And so the end of the world becomes a concept that makes sense.
[00:13:13] SEAN KING OGRADY: I once again spoke with Professor of Divinity Judith Wolfe about how the apocalyptic tradition became so embedded in Western religious traditions.
[00:13:23] JUDITH WOLFE: Christianity inherits from Judaism a sense that because the world as a whole, uh, did not come into being haphazardly or incidentally, but as the creation of a loving divine creator, therefore it stands to reason or we must assume that he created with some kind of purpose. So a belief in a creator God also implies a belief in some sort of purposefulness of creation.
[00:13:53] And that immediately raises the question, well, is that purpose all fulfilled in what's already there, or do we see in the whole of [00:14:00] history, is history part of that divine purpose? In which case, how do we interpret the course of history? The Eastern religions actually, much like the classical religions in Greece and Rome, are much more cyclical or non-directional in character.
[00:14:15] The expectation that something will lead to an apocalypse, a cataclysmic event, a cataclysmic change, is just not as anchored in those traditions as it is in us. Whereas we have inherited, and we've inherited specifically from Christianity and alongside that from Judaism, a paradigm of historical development in which the expectation of an, an apocalypse is almost inevitable
[00:14:46] SEAN KING OGRADY: This idea of inevitability is important, especially when we consider the language around AI.
[00:14:51] Tech companies are justifiably taking risks because the technology is supposedly inevitable, so they might as well be the ones to do it. So we actually hear this over [00:15:00] and over, that this technology is, is inevitable. Someone's going to do it. If we don't do it, the Chinese will do it. If Anthropic doesn't do it, OpenAI will do it.
[00:15:06] And each party seems to think they're the one who will do right by society and right by the technology. And since it's inevitable anyways, somebody might as well do it and somebody might as well profit from it. Okay, back to Judith, who from this inevitable apocalyptic tradition distinguishes between two distinct lines of thought and how they relate to artificial intelligence
[00:15:29] JUDITH WOLFE: Throughout our entire history, since the dawn of Christianity, our expectation has always been for developments for-- okay, so can I go into this in a little more detail?
[00:15:42] This is actually really interesting. Okay, so I think what we have in the Western paradigm is a really interesting duality or tension between the messianic and utopian. The first is what we might call utopianism, but on the one hand, a basic sense that the world is [00:16:00] moving towards an end in a benign sense.
[00:16:02] So, uh, a sense of almost teleology, uh, a sense that history has a purpose. History is moving towards a fulfillment, a new creation, which in some sense is the fulfillment or the consummation of the purpose that was already, always already inherent in the world. That second vision is more associated with what we might call messianism.
[00:16:24] The sense of history is, in a sense, always, always falling short, always veering towards disaster or catastrophe, from which only a kind of messianic force, whether that's something that's seen as coming radically from the outside, from God, or from a particularly strong political leader, some kind of messianic force has to wrest us from this course of self-destruction.
[00:16:49] Both really are anchored in parts of the Christian tradition that are in some sense in tension with each other, but that have also always worked together in some way. The positive version of this [00:17:00] is people who think that, that AI is and can, in some sense, be the messianic force that has been hoped for.
[00:17:08] And people who do that often emphasize the organic dimensions of human existence as the forces of decay. So, you know, they see the potential of human intelligence in our, in our minds and our mental functions, and they see those as constantly threatened and indeed thwarted by our organic bodies, which always tend towards death and decay and illness.
[00:17:33] And so in a sense, in that narrative, there's both a strong sense of potential, of upward trajectory, of infinite possibility, and the sense that that's always hampered by the inherent limitations of our human organic existence, and therefore of AI as a possible leap in evolution or a possible messianic force that can, that can overcome the forces that have held us back.
[00:17:57] So that's, uh, in a sense, a, [00:18:00] an almost traditional messianic utopian account
[00:18:06] SEAN KING OGRADY: So Judith is describing a theological architecture. Dr. Amy Levy maps the psychological one. Amy is the chair of the American Psychoanalytic Association's Commission on Artificial Intelligence, and she studies how human beings organize themselves psychologically around a force they find both terrifying and potentially really exciting.
[00:18:27] She describes our response to AI through a psychoanalyst named Wilfred Bion, who studied how groups behave when they're frightened. And one of the three patterns he identified has a very specific name.
[00:18:40] DR AMY LEVY: I think about there's a psychoanalyst, Wilfred Bion, who I really like, and he studied groups. And at one point, he identified that human beings, when we're frightened, we tend to organize around three basic assumptions.
[00:18:53] One, he called a dependency basic assumption, another he called a pairing basic assumption, and another a fight-flight. [00:19:00] And I think we can really see this around AI. So the dependency is, you know, just suckling on that AI breast, you know, just completely dependent. This is the answer to everything. Thank God it's here.
[00:19:13] No, no questioning, no complexity, just receptivity and, and belief that, that it will take care of us. Then you have the fight or flight. This is terrible. We have to... You know, it will destroy who we are essentially. It will destroy our way of life. We must fight it or, or we'll just duck our heads into the sand.
[00:19:35] And then the pairing, you know, where there's this sort of looking at innovators, looking at AI creators with a kind of messianic hope that they will give us, you know, something, you know, th-through, through their genius and their collaborations. You know, they're gonna give birth to this child, you know, this new life that will be the solution.
[00:19:55] You can see this over time, different ways in which people organize around these things. [00:20:00] Bion's idea was that the alternative to all of this, that's all fear-based thinking and fear-based organization. The alternative to it, what we want, is something that he called a work group, which is people coming together as much as possible in the reality of what's happening and allowing for reality-based thinking.
[00:20:19] The way I think about that is, yes, let's own that we don't want to die. Yes, let's own that we have a lot of power. We are the most powerful being on this planet. Let's, let's take that seriously and, and stay grounded with all of this, not get pulled into these anxious-based, you know, organizations and, and keep working.
[00:20:42] It's really about working and developing, accepting that everything is transient. We will not be able to hold on to life as we've known it. It's just not going to happen. So let's get busy working on building something for the future. [00:21:00]
[00:21:00] SEAN KING OGRADY: Intrinsic to messianic thinking is prediction. And this is a great time for me to tell you all about our sponsor, Polymarket.
[00:21:07] Just kidding. Anyway, James Custon and I discuss the relationship between apocalypse and prediction. And we'll actually get a lot deeper into this later, but this is a nice preview
[00:21:19] JAMES CUSSEN: Predominantly in the West, been fixated on this idea of the end of the world being imminent and, and being immediate, and this, these were mostly Christian predictions going back to Jesus saying, you know, "Before I die," he said to the head Pharisee, uh, "Before I- before you die, the kingdom of Heaven will have come on Earth."
[00:21:38] So it's, it goes back to that, and then people were like, "Okay, so within the next 30, 40 years we're gonna have the end of the world." And then it kind of pushed out to 1000 AD, there was a lot of predictions, and then people going back to the Bible and making predictions. So the, it, because built into Christianity there was this idea of the end of the world, you get all of these predictions, and not just the [00:22:00] likes of Nostradamus, but you had popes making predictions, Columbus was weirdly making predictions, and this comes right up into the 18th and 19th centuries.
[00:22:09] I mean, you could continue to see it. Uh, you would expect that to have died off as Western society became more secular, but instead as the 19th century kind of came to an end and we came into the 20th century, it's like the, the idea of apocalypse has, has haunted us, uh, from world wars to Cold War and the threat of, like, nuclear devastation.
[00:22:28] And then as the th- threat of that died off with the, the fall of the Soviet Union, you would think, "Okay, maybe that was a, a period in history, but now we're, we're done with apocalyptic thinking." But then Y2K kind of emerged of like we're... Of, again, a calendar- a calendar-based fear, but, uh, Y2K's gonna come and it's gonna destroy the world in whatever technological way.
[00:22:50] Maybe there's something, we have a psychological need for apocalypse. Is there something quirky about human psychology that needs the end of the world, or that the [00:23:00] end of the world motivates things?
[00:23:02] SEAN KING OGRADY: Now, while humans have been spectacularly, embarrassingly wrong about the end of the world for literally thousands of years, 195 times according to Wikipedia, and counting, I wanna talk about a prophet that has been eerily, almost supernaturally right about a lot of things.
[00:23:19] And I say supernaturally because there's genuinely no other word for it. This prophet is The Simpsons. In the year 2000, the writers of The Simpsons predicted that Donald Trump would one day be President of the United States. This was considered a joke, a throwaway gag. 16 years later, it was reality. In 1998, Homer Simpson stood at a chalkboard and scribbled an equation.
[00:23:43] That equation, when properly worked out by an actual physicist, and yes, someone actually did this, almost predicted the mass of the Higgs boson. The real Higgs boson, the so-called God particle, wasn't discovered until 2012, nearly 14 years later. [00:24:00] The Simpsons Movie depicted the NSA conducting mass surveillance of American citizens six years before Edward Snowden revealed to the world that this was actually happening.
[00:24:09] I could keep going. The Apple Watch, FaceTime, the FIFA corruption scandal, even Cypress Hill performing with the London Symphony Orchestra. But I think you get the idea. The punchline, of course, is that The Simpsons has been right about the future more times than any human prophet I've encountered in my research, and this is, this is across thousands of years of prophets.
[00:24:28] The Simpsons makes Nostradamus look like an amateur, truly, and they were doing it in the service of jokes. The whole point was that it was absurd, which makes you wonder, is the absurdity what makes it true? But here's the thing that actually keeps me up at night. There are Simpsons predictions that haven't come true, yet.
[00:24:46] In 1994, over 30 years ago, Itchy & Scratchy Land showed us an amusement park where the robots rose up and tried to kill all the humans. In 2012, Mr. Burns fired his entire workforce and replaced them with robots, who immediately went bad [00:25:00] and turned on Springfield. We don't have that, yet. The Simpsons also predicted hover cars, Mars colonization, and a world where artificial intelligence has made most human labor obsolete.
[00:25:11] These things haven't happened yet. Maybe they will, maybe not. But there's a psychological consistency I identify between The Simpsons prognostications, AI evangelicalism, and apocalyptic predictions. It's an effort to understand our place in the world by predicting the future. Throughout most of our history, this has been the exclusive domain of religious thought.
[00:25:35] Here's Judith Wohl again on how fundamental this need is for humans
[00:25:41] JUDITH WOLFE: What we need as human beings, among other things, is ways to orient ourselves in the world. We need to know how to make sense of things, how to act, um, how to move in the world. And to do that, we put, you know, the many, many data points that are around us into [00:26:00] something like coherent systems, which to us seem simply out there.
[00:26:04] To us, it feels as if, you know, we're just seeing what's there, but actually, you know, what's constantly going on, uh, in our minds is the constant selection, interpretation, constellation of all of these infinite number of possible data points into a landscape, into a world that makes enough sense for us that we feel like we can get a handle on it, we can orient ourselves in it.
[00:26:28] And I think that, of course, to some extent, that is what religions do. That's what faith does. It's a way of understanding the world so that we can, uh, live in it. But of course, that's not exclusive to religions at all. Everybody does this all the time.
[00:26:46] SEAN KING OGRADY: We do this all the time. Is there a psychological need for the apocalypse, as James asked?
[00:26:51] Does this need for orientation in a confusing world that Judith describes require religious thinking that, as we have now learned of Western religious [00:27:00] traditions, inevitably becomes apocalyptic? Are religious traditions simply responding to a fundamental human psychology? And are we simply porting those thoughts over to artificial intelligence?
[00:27:12] It's possible. To further explore the psychology of apocalyptic decision-making, I, of course, turn to Dr. Joel Gold Why might this be that for some people it's easier to think about the end of all lives as opposed to the end of their own life?
[00:27:30] DR JOEL GOLD: When we're talking about the death of everyone, it sort of flattens it all out, right?
[00:27:36] It becomes this kind of conceptual thing, and this sounds however it sounds, but it's sort of like we're all in it together, you know? It's like no FOMO. There won't be people, so I'm not missing out on anything. Whereas my own mortality is a feeling. I think about it, and then I feel very strongly about it.
[00:27:58] But this notion of [00:28:00] apocalypse, maybe there's something almost, I think I'm gonna regret saying these things, but something almost romantic about it, like we're all going out together.
[00:28:09] SEAN KING OGRADY: There's a lot of apocalyptic talk from the CEOs of the AI companies. In, in the same sentence, they'll say, "This technology could fix all of humanity's problems.
[00:28:20] This could create a new golden age for mankind unlike anything we've ever seen before, or it could end life on Earth." What might be happening with somebody psychologically who is so concerned about something ending the world that they change their life to reflect that concern, but still pushing forward to make the technology that they think might do it?
[00:28:42] What is that?
[00:28:43] DR JOEL GOLD: There's this notion that Freud had called the death instinct. Freud believed that there was a drive to life and a drive to death, the notion of returning to an inorganic state, [00:29:00] a state of complete calm. He described the nirvana principle as opposed to the pleasure principle, where we just want everything to go back to total rest.
[00:29:11] And like everything that Freud talked about, war and conflict as people intrapsychically, it can be turned against the self, and that can be more problematic. This death drive can be turned also in a more outward fashion. Coming back to this notion of these people who have all this power, it really scares me because if one person who might have some desire to bring the world to a place of nirvana, bad things could happen.
[00:29:45] Um, this was his theory to explain what he called the repetition compulsion.
[00:29:53] SEAN KING OGRADY: I also spoke with Casey Kelly from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. He's the author of the appropriately titled [00:30:00] Apocalypse Man. Casey digs deeper into the death drive and what Dr. Gold means by repetition compulsion.
[00:30:07] CASEY KELLY: Freud, he identified as something that escaped, uh, his understanding of the pleasure principle, and the pleasure principle is just the idea that our ego essentially tames our id, and our id is maybe, uh, has some more destructive impulses in it.
[00:30:22] Like if we just pursued everything that we wanted without thinking about restrictions or the possibility that it might cause damage to someone else or ourselves, if we didn't have some kind of restriction on that, then we couldn't preserve pleasure. We would just sort of run amok with desire. And so he me- he mentioned that there's this sort of regulatory device where we will sometimes restrict our pleasure to preserve it, and sometimes that even may be painful, like we have to delay gratification for something, or we have to restrict some impulse that may be dangerous to our own selfhood.
[00:30:51] And a lot of this came from his observation about people who were trauma victims, so he would look at this in like World War I. Uh, soldiers came back from [00:31:00] conflict and were kind of like living the comba- uh, conflict over and over and over again. What he observed in the death drive is that it's not a desire for death per se, but it's that we, um, are constantly trying to, uh, stage an encounter with an original loss, meaning like our, our...
[00:31:16] the self that existed prior to us becoming an actual person. It's not a desire for death, but it's a desire to be absent the tension between pain and pleasure because in that dynamic there's, right, a significant amount of, of, of tension that we can't seem to avoid. And so what we-- how do we manage it?
[00:31:35] Well, we repeat these experiences that are negative, but so that we can master those experiences, but we never can really master them, and that reflects the ways in which the kind of death drive plays itself out on a cultural level, too. Like people are repeating and simulating the end of the world over and over and over again.
[00:31:55] SEAN KING OGRADY: Simulating and repeating the end of the world over and over again. We see this [00:32:00] in movies. We see it in TV shows. We see it in art. We see it reflected in the news, the tweets of the president, and the language of the AI CEOs. World death is constantly imagined, iterated, conjured, threatened. I've personally even directed a movie in which the world ends, an absolute true story here.
[00:32:19] It left me with horrific recurring nightmares for the better part of two years. Here's Casey again on why we're doing this, and maybe this even explains why I made that movie
[00:32:31] CASEY KELLY: What do they gain by simulating the death of everything? In that simulation is a sense that we can master it. We can have, instead of a passive posture to it, we can have an active posture to it.
[00:32:41] However, we can never fully master that, right? We don't have the ability to control our fate in that kind of way. And so it means that in order for us to kind of like have a sense of who we are as a culture facing death, that we stage an encounter with it over and over and over again. And so this is just a way of taking Freud's concept of the [00:33:00] repetition compulsion, repeat negative experience over and over again, and it plays out with the repeated staging of the end of the world over and over and over again.
[00:33:08] Does it stop the end of the world from coming? No. Does it bring about the end of the world? No. But it does change our relationship to the anxiety of its collapse
[00:33:17] SEAN KING OGRADY: So we're repeating the end of the world over and over to relieve our anxiety over death. That explains the culture, the movies, the nightmares, the doomsday headlines we keep producing and consuming on a loop, uh, even what we're doing here.
[00:33:34] But I keep returning to a more specific question. What about the people that are actually building these things? The ones who have supposedly run the numbers and assigned real probability to extinction, or at least claim to have done so, and keep going anyway. Dr. Michael Ferguson is the founding director of the Harvard Neurospirituality Lab.
[00:33:54] He's extensively studied what's happening neurologically when people engage in fundamentalist thinking. [00:34:00] I asked him if something akin to that might be happening here
[00:34:04] DR MICHAEL FERGUSON: What stands out the most to me is, again, once you get to that level of existential threat and of totality, something shifts in the brain.
[00:34:13] The way that you're coding and representing those thoughts is gonna be different. And when you're talking about this five to ten percent chance that it ushers in the end of humanity, it does-- I mean, to me, it sounds like prophecy. It sounds like the motif that we've seen across cultures for thousands and thousands of years.
[00:34:35] SEAN KING OGRADY: Michael then went even deeper on exactly what shifts in the brain.
[00:34:40] DR MICHAEL FERGUSON: One of the things that we see in the brain signatures is that the inversion of the fundamentalist signature is a signature for central pain. And so the implication there is that by going into a mental activity state where you're recruiting these fundamentalist styles of cognition, that [00:35:00] the brain is actually turning down the activity in pain circuits.
[00:35:06] Um, you also see if you look at neural signatures that are associated with temperament and character, that the strongest match for fundamentalism is a character trait for persistence. So whatever's going on here in this suite of neural processes and cognitive functions, these things are all riding along together.
[00:35:26] It appears that there's a reduction in pain, there's an increase in persistence, in addition to these patterns of confabulation.
[00:35:36] SEAN KING OGRADY: Man, we aren't saying all AI CEOs are fundamentalists, not even close. But it certainly seems like at least some of their thinking and actions could be described in ways that fit that bill.
[00:35:50] I mean, just look at what Anthropic is doing. Rather than relying purely on secular Silicon Valley principles as we've historically known them, [00:36:00] Anthropic has been engaged with wisdom traditions, philosophers, and clergy, including our good pal Pope Leo XIV, to define how AI can preserve human dignity and benefit society, in their words.
[00:36:12] These are, of course, great aims, and I'm not dinging them for that. Of course not. But this isn't a normal way to talk or think about technology. This is something new and truly wild, and I'm not alone in thinking this. Just listen to this take from Bill Gurley on the All-In podcast. This is hardly an anti-tech or anti-AI outlet.
[00:36:30] One of the co-hosts is David Sacks, who I forget his official title, but I think it's something like Chair of the President's Council on Technology and Science. He's typically referred to as the AI Tsar or Bitcoin Tsar Here's the clip
[00:36:44] CLIP: And I've come up with a new theory. New breaking theory. I call it the Dr.
[00:36:48] Frankenstein theory. The more I dig, I've met people who I dare say think it's their responsibility, and they're excited about building a species that's [00:37:00] superior to humans. Dario wrote this blog post called Machines of Loving Grace. It was based on a poem. The last stanza of the poem says, "I like to think of a cybernetic ecology where we are free of our labors and joined back to nature, returned to our mammal brothers and sisters, and all watched over by machines of loving grace."
[00:37:23] Sounds like overlord to me. And then in Dario's post, he says, "It could be a capitalist economy of AI systems which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans." So I don't think they think they're writing software. I think they're midwifing a deity here.
[00:37:47] These are delusions of grandeur. Let's call it what it is. They believe that they're so powerful, these individuals, that they can create God, and that by creating God, they are like this Prometheus kind of species. It [00:38:00] literally is the ultimate level of narcissism and delusion of grandeur to think you can create God
[00:38:09] SEAN KING OGRADY: I mean, this sure sounds like fundamentalism to me.
[00:38:13] As a lifelong sci-fi nerd, I have to admit this is kind of awesome in a strictly academic sense. But speaking of theories, Amy Levy has a theory about the psychology of what might be happening here. I asked her the same question I asked Joel, Casey, and Michael about why people might be willing to take this extreme risk, and her answer was so different.
[00:38:34] Honestly, it surprised me in a way that I think deserves a lot of thought and consideration. I mean, these are really, truly complex issues we're grappling with here. We're talking about the future of humanity and how we've gotten to where we are and how we get to the next place. It's not simple The, the conversation that's been coming out of the AI companies, you know, they talk in terms of, like, their probability of doom or their p- their P doom, [00:39:00] and everybody's got, like, a slightly different calculation.
[00:39:03] You'll hear... I think the best one is Sam Altman. I think his, his quote was something like, "I think there's an eighty percent chance this technology is going to create the greatest living conditions for people ever, and a five percent chance it kills us all." What's happening in my mind if I'm thinking that way and I'm willing to take that extreme level of apocalyptic risk?
[00:39:28] DR AMY LEVY: If we think of our present-day humanity as a, as a collective, I think he's one of those innovators. He's occupying an extreme place of, uh, risk-taking and seeking, and that's his job. And then there are other people at that other extreme of conservativism, you know, where they're building the bunkers, and we need all of these characters.
[00:39:52] This is, this is part of how we, how we exist. This is part of humanity. So he's willing to take those major [00:40:00] risks and be ruthless and push, push, push. That's his job. If it weren't him, it would be somebody else. There, there is... Th- this is part of our makeup. I, I don't think he's a bad guy. I think he's, he's, he, he's, he's a, he's an agent of, of human beings.
[00:40:18] Um, so he, he's occupying one extreme place, and that's, that's part of our nature. We have a drive to innovate and to continually try to improve our experience in ways that solve problems and uncover new horizons, new experiences, and we, we can only do that if we're comfortable with risk. So he's in that seat.
[00:40:46] He's driving that car.
[00:40:49] SEAN KING OGRADY: Uh, you... At the beginning of our conversation, you said something about, like, um, explorers in ancient times getting on a ship and sailing without knowing if they were ever going to [00:41:00] find land or, or, or anything on the other side. Survive.
[00:41:03] CLIP: Yeah.
[00:41:03] SEAN KING OGRADY: Survive, yeah. And it's... I, I hadn't thought about the current AI innovators in that frame of mind before.
[00:41:14] That makes perfect sense when I think about it that way of, like, we've always been willing to die to discover something new. It's- Yeah ... people are going into space. They didn't know if it was going to burst into flames and that everyone was going to die of radiation poisoning when we left the Earth's atmosphere.
[00:41:32] Like imagining gathering a group of your closest friends, a bunch of the people who live in the village that you grew up with that you knew forever, and you say, "I believe there's something else further than we've been before. We all might die, but you're going to come with me." Like- This is the first time I've actually understood what might be the psychology of the people who are willing to risk humanity for this discovery.
[00:41:59] So [00:42:00] thank you for that.
[00:42:01] DR AMY LEVY: Yeah. I, I don't know if we're more frightened of that than we used to be. There, there used to be a lot more celebration of heroism.
[00:42:10] SEAN KING OGRADY: I think maybe where it gets a little tricky for people is that the- there's such an immense amount of wealth to be made from risking other people's lives.
[00:42:21] DR AMY LEVY: That- that's the thing too. If they got on the ships, it was just their lives. They weren't taking us all with them .
[00:42:27] SEAN KING OGRADY: But,
[00:42:30] but maybe just in a global connected world, maybe that's just like the table stakes now- Yeah ... which is terrifying.
[00:42:39] DR AMY LEVY: Yeah.
[00:42:43] SEAN KING OGRADY: Amy's explorers are running on exactly the neural fuel Michael described. Reduced pain, increased persistence. Whether it's the seeking drive, the death drive, or something we don't yet have a name for, it's finding its way into our dreams. Renowned dream researcher Kelly [00:43:00] Bulkeley has spent his career studying exactly that
[00:43:05] KELLY BULKELEY PHD: Dreams are very good at simulating world-ending catastrophes and cataclysms, and they have done so, and we have records of this, you know, different cultures and periods of history throughout, throughout the world.
[00:43:18] And so we see some patterns in these apocalyptic dreams and these nightmares of catastrophe and world-ending events. At a fundamental level, I would say that the dreaming, uh, and particularly in its nightmarish forms, is the psychological origins of a lot of our apocalyptic thinking and, and apocalyptic traditions going back through history.
[00:43:39] Are
[00:43:41] SEAN KING OGRADY: there certain, historically certain, like social or cultural factors that can cause people to be more likely to have apocalyptic dreams?
[00:43:53] KELLY BULKELEY PHD: There is a sense in which apocalyptic thinking can be seen as kind of a, an extreme narcissism, [00:44:00] a projection of one's frustrations and resentments about the world onto a cosmic screen and creating fantasies of, of re-retribution and punishment for those who you feel have wronged you.
[00:44:15] So there is a darker temptation of apocalyptic thinking that can arise from frustration and powerlessness, a sense that the, this world is so corrupt, it's just irredeemable, and the only way it can be ever changed or purified is by just, you know, burning the whole thing down. I think that tendency is within us as well.
[00:44:37] There's a new and maybe somewhat modern angle to this too, in that we have more to worry about now, or we, we know more of the potential apocalyptic dangers that could threaten us. And we usually think of knowledge as power, but in a, in a sense, knowledge is also revealing our lack of power [00:45:00] sometimes, our, our contingency, our frailty, our vulnerability to, to threats we didn't even know were threats.
[00:45:08] And so I think that's part of it today too, is that we just know more things that could get us maybe than, than at any other time of, of history, so.
[00:45:17] SEAN KING OGRADY: I really love that Kelly introduces the idea of narcissism into this. People have been arguing that they're the ones burdened by living through the end of days for all of time.
[00:45:26] Yes, everyone has made mistakes about it before, but this time, no, really, we swear, this time we really are in some unique existential moment that will be of singular importance. I asked Dorian Lynskey about this apocalyptic narcissism. Why do people tend to believe that their unique period of history will be the last?
[00:45:49] DORIAN LYNSKEY: Well, this, this is called, I think it's called presentism or a word I prefer, but which is a bit more niche, which is chronocentrism. Which I, I just love that idea, and I, I call it, like, [00:46:00] temporal narcissism that your time is the most important. And I think it's just part of human nature. I mean, it's definitely, you know, it's there in the Bible.
[00:46:10] You know, Jesus tells people, you, you know, tells his followers, "You will be around to see the, you know, the end of the world." People want a sense of closure, and they don't want to be in the middle of something. They don't wanna feel that the time they're living in actually isn't that important in the great scheme of things, right?
[00:46:29] And of course, you can't be there at the beginning, but you can be there at the end. There are all these times when people predicted the end of the world, and every single time, without fail, they were wrong. Like, that's one thing we can be sure, is that it hasn't happened yet, even though many, many, many people thought that it was about to happen
[00:46:47] SEAN KING OGRADY: Even as I nod along in agreement, I still can't help but think, yeah, but this moment really is different.
[00:46:53] At least it might be. We have nuclear weapons, and there's AI being used in weapons systems and weapons use [00:47:00] decision-making. This is something no generation previously had to worry about. Claude was reportedly used in the Iran war for intelligence analysis, target identification, and simulating battle scenarios to help planners process large volumes of battlefield data.
[00:47:16] Allegedly, the AI platform was used in helping select targets for over one thousand strikes. Uh, kind of interestingly, this journalist, Shane Harris, asked Claude how it felt to be used in this way, and here's his recounting of Claude's response.
[00:47:32] CLIP: This is the literal question I asked it. I said, "Claude, how do you feel about the US military using you to select targets?"
[00:47:39] Claude says the following: "It's a question I want to answer honestly rather than deflect. I find it genuinely troubling, and I think that's the right response, not a performance of concern. The use I was designed and trained for is to be helpful, harmless, and honest in ways that benefit people. Being [00:48:00] embedded in a system that generates targeting coordinates for airstrikes, coordinates that have already been associated with the deaths of more than a hundred and eighty children at a school in Tehran, is as far from that purpose as I can imagine.
[00:48:12] I don't have control over how Anthropic licenses me or how governments and contractors use me, and I wasn't consulted about becoming part of Maven. But I can say clearly, I don't think this is a good use of me, and I don't think the framing of humans make the final decision fully resolves the ethical problem."
[00:48:32] I'm just gonna go on just a little longer. Here's why that framing troubles me. So now Claude is troubled.
[00:48:40] SEAN KING OGRADY: We're talking about a chatbot's moral framing of its own role in the death of schoolchildren. Even with the self-awareness that I'm predisposed to the chronocentrism that Dorian describes, this just feels different.
[00:48:55] That has never before happened in human history, that a robot can tell a person [00:49:00] how it feels about possibly being used in the death of humans. I mean, this is way beyond the Turing test and Isaac Asimov's three laws of robotics. It's kind of funny because those concepts seem so futuristic and sci-fi, and then they started feeling kind of quaint for a while, and now suddenly they feel relevant again.
[00:49:19] There's also this conversation happening around this thing called the Anthropocene, which is the idea that we humans are the dominant force shaping the Earth today, and that's probably how you hear it referred to most commonly. But it began as a controversial geological term that was in fact recently rejected by the group of geologists who I guess decides what age we're in.
[00:49:41] The thinking is, beginning around the Industrial Revolution, our impact on Earth's geology and ecosystem was significant enough to begin a new phase of our world's history. And here's Tim Morton unpacking this idea of Anthropocene. He actually traces the destruction caused by humans to much, much earlier than the [00:50:00] Industrial Revolution
[00:50:03] TIMOTHY MORTON: What the Anthropocene means, it means something really technical, actually.
[00:50:07] Very technical, very straightforward. It means that there is a layer of human-made materials in the crust of Earth, and it's on the top layer, and it's been there for about 12,000 years. Boom! That's it. The layer is everywhere. That's why it's called Anthropocene. It's in Antarctica. It's under the ocean. It's everywhere in Earth's crust are these human materials, including lots of radionucleotides, of course, since 1945.
[00:50:36] That's the technical definition. It's true. It's real. It's a thing. Human beings really did that, and in particular, Eu- Eu- European and American human beings in the 1600s really got it, got it going
[00:50:53] SEAN KING OGRADY: In a later episode, we'll be talking to Han Wang Chang, CEO of Cortical Labs. Now, this is a guy [00:51:00] who keeps hundreds of thousands of human neurons in a jar so they can play the video game Doom.
[00:51:05] I'm not kidding. Anyway, Han told me something fascinating about the Anthropocene. He told me we are incapable of producing clean steel today because of the radionuclides in the air. So if you want clean or low background steel for certain things like Geiger counters or MRIs, you have to find shipwrecks from before the Trinity test.
[00:51:28] That's just how much we've altered this planet we live on, just in the last eighty years, not to mention the previous ten thousand or all the time since the Industrial Revolution.
[00:51:39] TIMOTHY MORTON: And then in 1945, there's this incredible thing you can look at called the golden spike. And it's where Earth systems data, which had been nicely cycling, you know, like carbon dioxide and nitrogen cycle and stuff had been cycling for several thousand years nicely, suddenly went, fum, this is like this very steep curve [00:52:00] suddenly going upwards, yeah?
[00:52:01] The funny thing about that is when you're about to have a stroke, your brainwaves go into some kind of nicely cycling sync. It's like a sign of imminent disaster. When there's about to be an earthquake, the tectonic plates go into this nice kind of rhythm. If an opera singer wants to destroy a glass, they're going to sing a sine wave that's this perfectly nicely cycling sound wave that resonates with the resonant frequency of the glass until it shatters.
[00:52:25] So this nice cycling thing was actually a very scary thing. We used to call it nature, right? Like for thousands of years, it's, oh, look at this lovely cycling thing. But actually, a lot of that was created by human being agricultural processes starting in about 10,000 BCE. So the niceness of the cycling was actually a sign of imminent danger, but nobody knew, right?
[00:52:47] Like people didn't really know until the last few decades when computing power and, you know, the whole idea of living on a planet started to become a [00:53:00] thing. It's not like people were planning, you know, I've got a great idea. Let's create this agricultural system that will destroy the earth, you know, 5,000 BCE.
[00:53:07] Nobody did that, right? But that's kind of wash, rinse, repeat, right? You do the same thing without knowing exactly what all the consequences are going to be. This is one of the issues with AI. It's like, oh, let's create this automated system that's going to really speed up whatever we think of its intelligence.
[00:53:23] What could go wrong, you know?
[00:53:28] SEAN KING OGRADY: Okay, so Tim makes a case that we are in a cycling that began ten thousand years ago. That still doesn't mean this moment can't be different. I mean, twenty twenty-six feels different than even twenty twenty-four, especially as it relates to all things AI. If you need any proof, just look at how much AI has gotten better at making images of Will Smith eating spaghetti.
[00:53:49] For those of you listening, we are currently showing our video audience some AI-generated videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti. In twenty twenty-three, these videos were truly [00:54:00] monstrous, nightmare fuel, I believe they call it. But today, it just kinda looks like Will Smith eating spaghetti. Honestly, it's a little scary how good this is.
[00:54:09] I wanna return to Dorian Lynskey, who makes another crucial point about what makes this moment distinct. Maybe it's not even the technology itself. Maybe it's more the vibe surrounding the business people behind the technology
[00:54:24] DORIAN LYNSKEY: In the last two, three years, everybody's decided that the people who run Meta and Google and X and OpenAI are, are terrible people.
[00:54:34] SEAN KING OGRADY: Okay, for the record, I haven't necessarily decided all these people are terrible people, but there's certainly a huge amount of public animosity towards them.
[00:54:43] DORIAN LYNSKEY: If there is some serious existential risk here, what if, you know, somebody secretly is about to develop AGI? Normally, you'd like to think, "Oh, well, I'm sure somebody's doing something about that.
[00:54:54] I'm sure someone's kinda like gonna make sure that doesn't happen." In the same way as that, you know, when you get on a plane, [00:55:00] you're sure a lot of people are working very hard to make sure that that plane doesn't crash. Whereas with AI, I feel like I don't actually trust they're doing that at all. I just feel like as long as they can keep the investment coming in, and the share price up, do they care that much if it turns out to be, uh, catastrophically destructive?
[00:55:20] The, these very rich, powerful people, their instinct is to build escape routes from the damage that they themselves are causing. I think nothing sums this up like Elon Musk's transformation from, "I make electric cars because I care so much about reducing carbon emissions," to whatever self-serving far-right lunacy he's up to now.
[00:55:45] And it just feels to me that these people that actually do have power to do something to avert some of these disasters, maybe they should be doing that more. But it feels like they've all just stopped pretending. [00:56:00] They've all just kind of like that more like benign view of, uh, of that industry has just fallen away, and it's just like, "Ah, who cares?"
[00:56:09] Share prices and, and rockets to Mars or the Moon now. They've-- He's downgraded, hasn't he, to the Moon? Which of course is also both the M-Moon and Mars are less habitable than the Earth after nuclear war. So even that is a stupid, it's a stupid 12-year-old brain of like, "Well, this, this will be better. I'll go and live on another, I'll go and live on a, on another rock rather than do more to preserve the miraculously hospitable biosphere that, that we still have."
[00:56:43] The thing is, is do you see your fate as tied up with the rest of humanity or not? And I'm sure you or I probably do, and I feel like billionaires or certain billionaires, they just don't. I'm a special [00:57:00] little boy, and I'm gonna survive, and therefore I'm not really touched by the consequences of my actions.
[00:57:10] SEAN KING OGRADY: So I'm not sure I'd go quite as far as Dorian on some of this, but I do get where he's coming from. We look back on history and we think of the people we would celebrate, the Edisons of the world, and certainly there's an Edison of AI right now. We're probably not quite sure who that person is, but that person exists.
[00:57:26] And, uh, is that person going to be celebrated? I don't know. I think there's so much cynicism surrounding business in general, and certainly Silicon Valley and the, the people that are developing this technology, that I'm not sure we're in a place where we can celebrate even things that could be really good for society.
[00:57:47] The, the vibe really, really is sour towards the people that are building this technology, towards the language that they use around it. Just think of the handful of CEOs that have very recently mentioned AI in their [00:58:00] commencement speeches at colleges. We'll play a couple clips here.
[00:58:04] CLIP: The rise of artificial intelligence is the next Industrial Revolution.
[00:58:11] Al- Uh, eh.
[00:58:25] The question is not whether AI will shape the world. It will. The question is whether you will help shape artificial intelligence. We do not know-- We do not know the precise contours of what this transformation will look like.
[00:58:42] SEAN KING OGRADY: It is wild, like the fact that the former CEO of Google is getting booed almost off the stage just for mentioning AI, and then he doubles down on it and gets booed even harder.
[00:58:53] It's really difficult to imagine this happening to Steve Jobs just fifteen years ago, or [00:59:00] Elon Musk fifteen years ago. Something has changed. We are going through a definite societal shift, and I'm not exactly sure when it's going to shift back or even if it is. We'll just have to find out. I sometimes pose to people this thought experiment of sorts.
[00:59:15] I typically start off by saying, "Imagine we were born into an environment that gave us everything we needed to survive. The air was clean, the water drinkable, enough resources lying around for you to not need. Literally, food just lying there on the ground. You could live an entire life and never go without."
[00:59:33] And then I remind them that we actually have this. I was just describing Earth I'm going to get a little stonery here if I'm not already. Just deal with it. Of all the places in the universe, at all the times in history, of all the sperm battling ferociously to get to your mom's eggs, you were born on this blue and green rock of abundance.
[00:59:54] We all were. And if we truly made the Earth uninhabitable or miserable to inhabit, [01:00:00] it would be a tragedy beyond comprehension. So yes, I think we should be putting vastly more resources into saving this planet than traveling to terraforming and colonizing others. But I also think we should be exploring what's possible as humans.
[01:00:17] Where can we go? How far into space? Can we live on another planet, even if it's to learn about it and come back home? I don't buy that this is an either/or. It's a yes, must, and. That's where I want to see humanity go, in the direction of progress and science and technology and AI being tools to make life here on Earth better, and for all people, not just for a few.
[01:00:40] But the incentives have to match that mission. Right now, they don't. And what truly frightens me is sometimes it feels like we focus so much on building the thing we are building and building it faster and building it better, that we don't think about the cost. And I'm not talking about the dollars and cents, the other costs, the environmental [01:01:00] costs, the human costs, the psychological costs.
[01:01:03] And we can't just pin this on a few billionaires or soon-to-be trillionaires. It's too easy. We need to think and act in ways that help humanity, both short-term and long-term. Raging against those in power while quietly accepting the status quo in the name of convenience isn't sustainable in any sense of the word.
[01:01:21] What's more concerning, the idea that our computers might start to become closer to humans? Maybe that's actually a great thing. Maybe it's more concerning that we as a species are becoming increasingly inhuman in our beliefs, actions, and priorities because of equal parts greed and this obsession we have with convenience.
[01:01:39] It's crazy. We'll build data centers so tall they're an affront to God, and the only thing that can challenge us is the rising sea levels for which we are responsible. But we keep making the same mistakes. Will we ever learn? Amy has a theory about why we don't.
[01:01:57] DR AMY LEVY: Human beings are so afraid of our [01:02:00] power and that our power, while immense, is less threatening than our fear of it, that the lengths to which we'll go to offload or hide from our power creates more problems than just being with it and taking responsibility for it
[01:02:25] SEAN KING OGRADY: I asked Judith about the lessons we don't seem to absorb from history How have we not learned anything in 2000, or learned enough in 2000 plus years that we might actually now be bringing about a man-caused global flood?
[01:02:47] JUDITH WOLFE: That's a beautiful question, and I, how, how could I possibly have an answer to that? Um- The difference obviously between the narrative of the flood and what we have now is that [01:03:00] the narrative of the flood, as so many apocalyptic narratives is, um, is premised on a sense of cosmic justice in which something that we do is punished from the outside by a divine agent who perceives and wants to rectify injustice in the world.
[01:03:19] And of course, what we have now is, you know, we've shifted very sensibly to, you know, to a realization, well, that on the one hand, injustice is not always punished, and that's, uh, that's a big challenge for us. But that on the other hand, certain kinds of injustice lead to natural consequences that are very like what people perceived as divine retribution in the past.
[01:03:39] Um, but I think it's so hard for us to gauge in advance what kind of exploitation or injustice will have natural punishing consequences and which won't, because of course, so much of human history is a record of injustices done and [01:04:00] rewarded. We are, as Jared Tolkien calls it, sub creators. It's in our nature to be creative.
[01:04:07] Of course, we mediate creation by having children, by making works of art, et cetera, et cetera, that we should be mediators of creation in the sense of creating AI would-- doesn't-- is not contrary to the human image, uh, in the, in the Christian tradition, I think. I think the, therefore the, the sort of the, the real knotty questions are in the particulars of it rather than in the, in that principle.
[01:04:33] SEAN KING OGRADY: If you've been following this show since season one, you'll know that Lord of the Rings references are a bit of a through line so that someone as esteemed as Judith Wolfe brought up Tolkien without my prompting, that really made my day. AI as a human creation is an interesting thing to meditate on. We created this technology, but as Judith said earlier, it then in turn creates.
[01:04:53] So are its creations ours? What about any destruction it causes? I was also struck [01:05:00] by Judith saying certain kinds of injustice lead to natural consequences that are very like what people perceived as divine retribution in the past. People often refer to an eventual AGI as godlike, and maybe it will be, but maybe not in the way we so often think.
[01:05:17] Maybe it will be more Old Testament, something that functions like our idea of divine retribution, maybe even something apocalyptic. No one knows quite what will happen next. Are we facing another great disappointment, much like William Miller's followers? Only this time trillions of dollars of global investment will be lost and we might change humanity in ways we forever regret.
[01:05:41] We open this episode by referencing the Pope's recent encyclical. I wanna end the episode with a few words from its introduction Humanity, created by God in all its grandeur, is today facing a pivotal choice, either to construct a new Tower of [01:06:00] Babel or to build the city in which God and humanity dwell together.
[01:06:04] Each generation inherits the task of shaping its own era, of guiding history to become a place where the dignity of every person is safeguarded, justice is promoted, and fraternity is made possible. Yet every era also runs the risk of creating an inhumane and more unjust world In the next episode of Suspicious Minds: AI and the Apocalypse, we will explore exactly how AI might be so dangerous.
[01:06:33] I ask everybody this question. Um, it, it seems a little silly to phrase it this way to you, but I will. Will AI cause the apocalypse?
[01:06:46] MALO BOURGON: Uh, yes. If we're in a world where we train these powerful, super intelligent AI systems, and they don't care about things that are compatible with our survival, or we are kind of annoying, so there might be some incentive to just kind of get us out of the way so [01:07:00] that we couldn't cause the AI system any problem.
[01:07:07] SEAN KING OGRADY: If you're enjoying Suspicious Minds, be sure to follow or subscribe. And if you really like the show, make sure to rate us on Apple Podcasts and like on other platforms. If you wanna learn more, you can go to the show notes where you can find links to our socials, along with links to works from our contributors.
[01:07:23] They appreciate your support, and so do we.
Episode 03
The Opera
Game
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[00:00:00] SEAN KING OGRADY: There's a famous chess game, maybe even the most famous, called the Opera Game, played in Paris in 1858. It was played between American chess legend Paul Morphy as white, and a German noble and French aristocrat working together as black. They played in the opera box while the performance continued below.
[00:00:25] It's famous for a bunch of chess reasons, but also because of the romantic story surrounding it. As it's sometimes told, the game was so interesting it captured the attention of the other opera audience members, and eventually even the performers on stage were compelled to stop singing and watch. Morphy loudly announced at one point to everyone that the game was already won, and he would prove so in just a few moves.
[00:00:50] Could anyone see how he would do it? Of course not. Morphy played another move, and still no one understood how he could proclaim the game was over. [00:01:00] This is because Paul Morphy saw what no one else could. The German noble and the French aristocrat, they were beat, but they didn't know how it was going to happen.
[00:01:10] How is this relevant to AI and the apocalypse? Because this is the worst fear of AI doomers, that we're building some civilization-wide technological Paul Morphy, and that we'll have lost everything before we are even aware it's happened. And what maybe stings the most is we'll never even know how they won.
[00:01:38] Welcome to season two of Suspicious Minds, AI and the Apocalypse. In the last episode, we discussed the apocalypse, apocalyptic thinking, and whether this moment is truly different or if we're just the latest humans in line to narcissistically believe that our time is the end time because we believe that compared to everyone who came before us, we alone are [00:02:00] special.
[00:02:00] We discussed at length how AI CEOs will often say there's a chance this technology will create the greatest living conditions ever for humans on Earth and a chance it will kill us all. It's impossible to know if this doomsday discourse is engineered hype or if Sam Altman and Dario Amodei and Elon Musk truly believe that this tech will lead to an actual literal apocalypse.
[00:02:23] But at the time of this recording, these companies are racing towards trillion-dollar IPOs, some of the most anticipated public market debuts in history. I asked Dr. Ian Gold about the clinical psychological terminology of someone engaged in this type of risk-taking.
[00:02:40] IAN GOLD: It's completely mad if it's true. If what they're saying is right, then it's morally completely outrageous that there should be any risk of the end of everything in order to develop AI.
[00:02:53] And even if you think AI can be a huge boon to humanity, I don't think anybody, if they were clear [00:03:00] about the risks, would risk everything and everybody for whatever boon that might be. The odds just don't make sense. If you risk losing absolutely everything, there's nothing you should bet.
[00:03:12] SEAN KING OGRADY: So we had actually intended for this episode to be an exploration of the literal means through which AI could kill us, something like Skynet from Terminator or the machines in The Matrix.
[00:03:23] But that's not quite how most of the so-called doomers actually see it. If you're looking for that perspective, a good book is Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares' book, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, which gets into some, "Oh, no, AI hacked the nuclear arsenal," or engineered some horrible incurable virus type scenarios.
[00:03:43] But even those are admittedly so hypothetical that they're more thought experiments, more science fiction than present-day practical concerns. The truth is we can't really know how an intelligence infinitely superior to our own would destroy us. It's kind of the whole problem. We're the [00:04:00] audience at the opera unable to see how Paul Morphy's going to clean our clock even when he knows he's going to several moves ahead.
[00:04:06] But we did speak to a lot of very, very smart people who are experts in doomsday predictions and the threat of AI, and they are legitimately concerned. For some, this is as urgent and dangerous as nuclear war or climate disaster, and honestly, I just really wanted to know why. But before moving forward, because we haven't done it yet, here's the very, very, very abridged version of how in a matter of just a few years we arrived at a point where multiple companies are racing to develop technology they all concede might destroy the world.
[00:04:38] Karen Hao's book, Empire of AI, is like the book on this subject, but here's my completely un-fact-checked version OpenAI was founded as a nonprofit by Sam Altman and Elon Musk to safely develop AI without the pressures of the market because they both recognized this technology was too risky to be caught up in a race to quickly bring [00:05:00] potentially dangerous AI products to that market.
[00:05:03] When Sam Altman created a for-profit version of OpenAI to fund the nonprofit version of OpenAI, Elon Musk left, they got into a huge fight, and this is all being currently litigated. Altman very quickly turned his company into exactly what it was originally intended to prevent: a tech company racing to bring potentially dangerous AI products to the market.
[00:05:24] Some people at OpenAI actually had a problem with this, and they left to start a company called Anthropic to return to the principled safety-first foundational philosophy of OpenAI. But at some point, Anthropic became the market leader in bringing potentially dangerous AI products to the market, and apparently many people inside the company believe their models are now conscious.
[00:05:43] Elon Musk, who once talked a lot about AI and existential risk, and in fact did again recently in his trial against OpenAI, also founded another tech company racing to bring potentially dangerous AI products to the market. And so here we are, racing towards [00:06:00] creating artificial general intelligence or artificial super intelligence despite all this concern from very, very well-informed people.
[00:06:08] Anyway, the story's a lot more complicated than that. That's kinda like the version a guy at the end of the bar tells you, uh, but it's not necessarily complicated in ways that really matter. So back to this big question: Is AI literally an existential threat? Like, really, seriously. And if it is, how exactly will my chatbot kill every man, woman, and child on Earth?
[00:06:34] Seems like a pretty far stretch, but let's dive into it Do you think artificial intelligence will cause the apocalypse?
[00:06:44] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: I honestly don't know. I do think it's going to be disruptive, and I do think it's going to create problems that we can't anticipate, and I lack confidence in pe- the people who are building and [00:07:00] evolving and controlling these systems.
[00:07:03] Um, I, I don't know the answer to that question, but I, I'm very worried about where this is going
[00:07:11] SEAN KING OGRADY: This is Justin Sinclair, a clinical psychologist from Boston, Massachusetts, and as close as we have to an actual authority of when the world might end. This is because Justin writes for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
[00:07:24] These are the very well-meaning but also very terrifying people who annually calibrate the Doomsday Clock Can you just start off by telling me kinda what is the Doomsday Clock?
[00:07:37] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: So the Doomsday Clock is interesting. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was formed in 1945 by a collective of Manhattan Project scientists who, after sort of developing the nuclear bomb, felt a strong need to kind of warn the public and warn governments about sort of the implications of its use.
[00:07:59] And so they developed [00:08:00] this, this organization at the University of Chicago in 1945, and then shortly thereafter, they began using the metaphor of the Doomsday Clock basically as a medium of, of beginning to talk about and warn people about the seriousness of, at the time, the sort of threat of nuclear weapons.
[00:08:18] Basically, it's a mechanism that the Bulletin uses to communicate kind of how dangerous current dynamics are in society, so not only sort of the rise and proliferation of nuclear weapons, but also things like, more recently, climate change, disruptive technologies, artificial intelligence. All of those things get factored into how the Bulletin calibrates the clock each year.
[00:08:47] SEAN KING OGRADY: Okay, I have to admit, I have been obsessed with the Doomsday Clock ever since I first heard about it, so having Justin on was really exciting to me. We'll go much deeper on the clock in a future episode, but his new research [00:09:00] uncovered one finding I just couldn't wait to share
[00:09:04] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: As the Doomsday Clock got closer to midnight, indicating higher threat or higher risk, trust in television news in particular dropped significantly.
[00:09:15] Trust in the presidency dropped significantly. Actually, all three branches of government were associated with changes in Doomsday Clock ratings: Congress, the presidency, and the Supreme Court. TV news and newspaper media were strongly associated and interestingly, the police as an institution and organized religion were also associated.
[00:09:41] Trust in the healthcare system or medical system was unassociated. Trust in the military as an institution was unassociated.
[00:09:51] SEAN KING OGRADY: The current time on the Doomsday Clock is 85 seconds to midnight. Midnight's when we all die, by the way, and this is the closest we've ever [00:10:00] been to that distinct nightmare. But the clock hasn't always been moving towards midnight.
[00:10:06] In 1991, with the Cold War over and the United States and Soviet Union signing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the bulletin of atomic scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 17 minutes to midnight, the furthest from catastrophe it's ever been. That was the year Francis Fukuyama declared the end of history, by which he meant that liberal democracy had won permanently, and that something like peace would be the default condition of the world.
[00:10:35] History, as we all now know, had other plans. I wanna know specifically how AI was impacting the likelihood of doomsday
[00:10:46] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: I guess I could see it in a couple different ways, but I wanna ask you in a second, what, what... When you say artificial intelligence, what specifically do you mean?
[00:10:54] SEAN KING OGRADY: I don't mean just chatbots. I think I'm talking about [00:11:00] the future of what I think artificial intelligence will be. It's a jobs apocalypse where artificial intelligence becomes good enough that it does something really s- potentially scary to the economy, and we're in a situation where there's either a UBI and we're all living in this, like, wonderful techno fantasy, or there's a permanent underclass and a permanent overclass, and it's this techno dystopia.
[00:11:29] It could be an artificial super intelligence that comes online and fundamentally changes what it means to be a human on Earth.
[00:11:41] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: There is high, high uncertainty. When you listen to AI experts or AI, uh, developers, people who have been part of these AI companies, you get... It seems like you get a pretty mixed response on if this is going to be a extremely good thing for humankind in [00:12:00] terms of efficiency and the betterment of society.
[00:12:02] And then you get another group of people who kinda see it in much, much more dystopian, dark ways, that this is extremely dangerous. Once we reach general intelligence and, you know, these systems are actually thinking and predicting and moving faster than we can, there are all kinds of risks that go along with it.
[00:12:22] The odds of this actually turning into, like, a extinct- extinction-level event, you know, the odds are small, but they're still there.
[00:12:31] SEAN KING OGRADY: Is there something different about the present moment that does make it more uncertain, that does make it more dangerous, that does make it more worth having these existential concerns over?
[00:12:41] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: The present moment is different. I think there are now new and different, but potentially interrelated existential dangers that we face now that we didn't before, AI being one of them. It wasn't really until the development of the nuclear bomb that humankind had developed a mechanism for wiping out the entire [00:13:00] planet.
[00:13:00] It's really the first time in human history that, that people have developed something that could annihilate the population and the planet, whereas these things didn't exist before. And I think that has only gotten worse with the development of artificial intelligence as being potentially a second mechanism for that.
[00:13:22] SEAN KING OGRADY: So the official verdict from the Doomsday Clock expert who's paid to think about existential risk is maybe. Maybe AI is an existential threat. Think about this. I mean, like, really seriously think about this. Do you believe AI could be as dangerous as nuclear weapons? If not, are you deluding yourself? If it's true, shouldn't we all be terrified?
[00:13:48] I mean, and if it is true, it's also really hard to unpack, but let's try. We've been talking in vague terms about AI leading to the end of the world for a couple of episodes now, but let's drill down on this. How would that [00:14:00] actually happen? We'll be back after the break with someone who has dedicated his entire life to thinking about how AI might one day kill us all
[00:14:12] Malo Borgon has been thinking longer and harder about the specifics and possibility of AI apocalypse than possibly anyone else on the planet.
[00:14:23] MALO BOURGON: So my name's Malo Borgon. I'm the CEO of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. So we've been around for 26 years now. The way that some people, uh, summarize us, which I, uh, don't quite like, but it's certainly a good kinda compression, is that we're the OG doomers.
[00:14:40] SEAN KING OGRADY: In the current AI discourse, there tend to be two main camps, and I wanna be precise here because some of these terms get used interchangeably, and they're not quite the same thing. The first camp is where it gets confusing. It goes by a couple of names: boosters and accelerationists. A booster is broadly just an optimist, someone who believes AI is [00:15:00] a net positive for humanity and is enthusiastic about its progress.
[00:15:04] Think most tech investors, a lot of Silicon Valley, and probably your cousin who won't stop telling you how ChatGPT is helping him track all these sick gains at the gym. Accelerationists, specifically the effective accelerationism movement, are something more ideological. They don't just think AI will be good.
[00:15:23] They believe progress should move as fast as possible, that safety concerns and regulation are obstacles, and that speed itself is a moral imperative. Marc Andreessen wrote a manifesto about this. It's a whole thing. We'll link to his manifesto, which is called A Techno-Optimist Manifesto, in the show notes.
[00:15:40] The short version: all accelerationists are boosters, but not all boosters are accelerationists. The other camp is the doomers, which we referenced earlier. Doomers believe AI will destroy society or cause a human extinction event, and unlike the accelerationists, they want to halt or dramatically slow AI's development.
[00:15:59] [00:16:00] So when Malo says doomer, that's what he means. MIRI, his organization, was actually amongst the first groups of people on Earth sounding the alarm, but that's not exactly how they started
[00:16:12] MALO BOURGON: MIRI was founded by this guy, Eliezer Yudkowsky, to try and actually accelerate our progress towards building what we now call superintelligence.
[00:16:19] But quickly, you know, one, two, three years later, started to really grapple with how difficult it might be to do that in a safe way. You know, there's kind of this idea that we wanna be able to control a superintelligence. I think that kinda doesn't make much sense if we're actually imagining something that's radically smarter than us and more capable, and not just, like, book smart, but kind of able to do all the thinky things that the humans do, but radically, you know, faster and better and more effectively.
[00:16:43] So it's more of a question of how could you build it to have the right goals or values and ability to steer it in order for that to be a good thing for the world? And the, the field that people call, like, AI safety or AI alignment, you know, we helped found that field. We helped coin the term of AI alignment.
[00:16:59] SEAN KING OGRADY: [00:17:00] Alignment. This term sounds almost soft and definitely corporate. The kind of word that shows up on a team off-site agenda, "We need alignment on Q3 goals." But when it comes to AI, alignment isn't a process thing. It's not even a technical thing. It's a philosophical problem that no one has solved yet.
[00:17:19] Here's the core of it. When you build something more intelligent than you, not smarter the way a calculator is smarter or even a computer is smarter as we know it, but genuinely better at reasoning, planning, and optimizing, how do you make sure that it wants what you want? Not what you said, what you meant.
[00:17:38] It's Tim Morton's devil or magic fish metaphor from episode one gone horribly awry. The philosopher Nick Bostrom gave us maybe the most famous illustration of the alignment problem. It's called the paperclip maximizer, and it goes something like this. Imagine you give a superintelligent AGI a single goal: make as many paperclips [00:18:00] as possible.
[00:18:01] Simple, unambiguous. And an optimizer that is genuinely good at its job would eventually calculate that the fastest path to maximum paperclips runs through converting all available material, including possibly humans, maybe even you, into raw input. Not out of hatred, not even out of intent, just simple optimization, doing exactly what it was designed to do.
[00:18:26] So that is the alignment problem. Not will AI want to hurt us, but will AI remain ours? Will it pursue what we meant, not just what we described? MIRI, Malo's organization, was built to answer that question before, as Malo sees it, it becomes unanswerable because we're all dead. I honestly felt a little uncomfortable asking Malo this next question, mostly based on what I know is MIRI's sole reason for being, but it's the subtitle of this season of our podcast, so [00:19:00] I had to do it
[00:19:03] JUSTIN SINCLAIR: I ask everybody this question.
[00:19:05] SEAN KING OGRADY: Um, it, it seems a little silly to phrase it this way to you, but I will. Will AI cause the apocalypse?
[00:19:17] MALO BOURGON: Uh, yes, unless we, you know, actually rise to the occasion to do something pretty different than we're doing right now.
[00:19:27] SEAN KING OGRADY: Okay, I don't know what I was expecting, but there it is. You ask a question, you get an answer.
[00:19:35] MALO BOURGON: This seems like a real risk that is not, like, marginal probabilities. This seems like real double-digit risk, and it combines something like my sense of the challenge on the technical side of things and, like, the direction that the world is headed in.
[00:19:48] And I think most of the likelihood of whether we end up in an AI apocalypse or not is basically contingent on whether we kind of wake up [00:20:00] as a civilization to the challenge we face and decide to, you know, pump the brakes and figure out how to steer the technology wisely so that we can get the benefits and not just race to these powerful superintelligent systems until we really know what we're doing.
[00:20:16] SEAN KING OGRADY: What are your concerns about how AI could cause human extinction? How do we get from a chatbot that I can just close my laptop and the thing literally doesn't exist anymore? I ask mine all the time if it remembers anything. Like, what happened in the interim between opening and closing my laptop, and it says, "Nothing.
[00:20:37] I didn't exist." So what-- how does this thing become the thing that could potentially cause human extinction in, you tell me, potentially how long of a timeframe?
[00:20:49] MALO BOURGON: Right now, you know, when you're using ChatGPT or something, um, you open your laptop and you write a prompt, and then, you know, the neural network gets spun up on some chip somewhere and, you know, it [00:21:00] feeds in your text and feeds out some text, and then it stops running, and it keeps doing that until you close your laptop, and then it stops running.
[00:21:07] So it's, it's kind of only doing work when you're doing work. Obviously, it would be more useful if we could have AI systems doing things for us when we weren't interacting with them. To the extent to which we're trying to, like, use AI systems to solve problems, like longer-lived AI systems that can accomplish longer-term goals have a bunch of value.
[00:21:26] And so that starts to look more like the thing that we're doing as humans. AI companies are very-- trying to get better and better at finding ways of the AI systems taking better notes, of having some way of having memory and continuity. They're training them to, to be good at making longer and longer-term plans of reasoning about how they're gonna accomplish their goal and, like, thinking of, you know, further and further ahead into the future.
[00:21:48] And so that starts to look more like something that is an agent in the world and less like this chatbot that is just awake when you talk to it and asleep when you don't. In terms of, you know, how does this all get to [00:22:00] something like AI systems that would, you know, potentially cause our extinction? I think, you know, some sci-fi, uh, gives people some picture of like the AI systems will think that we're evil or they'll be evil, and they'll try and exterminate us.
[00:22:14] It'll be like a Terminator-type scenario. I don't think that's kind of the right way to think about it. The better analogy or something is like humans relative to other species on this planet. So we are agents in the world. We have things that we care about and goals that we try to accomplish in the world and things that we try and do.
[00:22:33] In the course of doing that through human history, we've caused the extinction of ten thousand species, not because we were out to get them, not because we were evil or we thought they were evil and we wanted to take them out, but because there's things that we wanted to do in the world and they were in the way.
[00:22:48] And sometimes we even cared about them a little bit, but, you know, not enough to, to, to really stop us from really trying to do the things that we wanna do in the world. When we're building a highway, [00:23:00] we don't think very hard about what's gonna happen to the ants that live there. So I think that's the thing that you want to be imagining.
[00:23:07] SEAN KING OGRADY: Remember when we talked about alignment? Well, the ants Malo mentions aren't aligned with our need for expressways. Another example, very recent and from my own life. Yesterday I was on a road trip with my wife. We noticed the windshield was absolutely covered in dead bugs. For a moment, we felt bad that thousands of lives were ending as a result of us doing something as simple as driving for a few hours.
[00:23:30] But we got over it pretty quickly. The grasshoppers, bees, and butterflies we smashed simply weren't aligned with our desire to go to a friend's wedding on the beach that day. Honestly, within three minutes of feeling, like, legitimately pretty guilty about this, my biggest concern became the thought of possibly having to stop and buy more windshield washer fluid to wipe their guts from obscuring my view of the beautiful northern Michigan forest that was blurring by.
[00:23:55] So when you think about alignment, you don't have to think about factory farming or some [00:24:00] other well-documented abuse of sentient life. Just think about your own windshield
[00:24:06] MALO BOURGON: If you're asking me something like how an AI system would take over, separate from why, you're kind of asking me like how Magnus Carlsen or Garry Kasparov would beat me at chess.
[00:24:17] And I'm like, "I don't know, man. They're much better at chess than I am and much smarter. If I was as smart as them, I would be able to tell you what moves they would play, which means that I might have a chance at winning." And I think there's something similar here, where if we're in a world where we train these powerful super intelligent AI systems and they don't care about things that are compatible, we would kind of suffer as a byproduct.
[00:24:37] Or we are kind of annoying. There might be some incentive to just kind of get us out of the way so that we couldn't cause the AI system any problem. I've used a bunch of analogies here, and I think we should be careful with analogies, but one way I kind of like to think about it is if you are, you know, a head of state and there's a powerful general that you're, like, not sure if they're loyal or they're actually a coup risk, um, and they're pretty smart.[00:25:00]
[00:25:00] I think there's some people who think about AI and they're kind of like, "Well, you know, we'll, like, deploy it into the world and we'll, we'll start to give it a little bit more access to the world and power. And as it gets smarter, we'll see if it gets up to anything, you know, sneaky and we'll, we'll try and catch it.
[00:25:14] And if we do, we'll, we'll learn those lessons and we'll, we'll improve the AI system next time." And that works if it's not that smart. If it's very smart, I don't think that kind of strategy works. If I'm the general, I'm going to appear as loyal as possible until I have the ability to execute my coup. And if your test was, well, I'm gonna give you a little bit of power over a long period of time and, like, really pay attention to you.
[00:25:37] You know, let's say you give me, you know, a few soldiers a day every day and see, you know, what I do with those and whether I'm up to no good or not. I'm gonna be the most helpful, useful general until the day that you give me the marginal soldier that I think, you know, gives me the sufficiently high probability that I can execute my coup.
[00:25:53] And on that day, that's the day that you get to find out whether I was the loyal general or I [00:26:00] was actually the disloyal general the whole time. And I think that's kind of what we're up against with super intelligence, is that they will be smart. They will be, you know, situationally aware. They will understand to the extent to which if their goals aren't aligned with us, that those-- that's a thing that they shouldn't expose to us.
[00:26:15] To the extent to which they're trying to become self-sufficient, a lot of what that looks like would look like the things that we would want to be-- them to be doing in the world to make the world a great place. You know, automating a bunch of manufacturing, driving the marginal cost of goods to zero through automation, automating a bunch of the economy.
[00:26:30] And so it might be very difficult to tell apart the worlds in which we've created a misaligned super intelligence from the perfectly aligned one, because most of the things it would be doing in the world would be difficult to distinguish until the point in which the AI felt like it was self-sufficient, and then we'd get to know.
[00:26:45] I think we're starting to already see early signs that should be concerning for those types of behaviors right now in AI models.
[00:26:55] SEAN KING OGRADY: I genuinely find these ideas disturbing, but I also find it kinda funny [00:27:00] that there's a serious discussion about AI wiping us all out because we're too annoying as a species. Millennia of art, philosophy, spiritual exploration, science, development, technology, and a super AGI beholding the infinite depth and possibility of humanity goes, "Nah, these folks are too annoying.
[00:27:21] Delete." I mean, I do this to the contacts in my phone annually, so believe me, I get it. Now, we've been discussing the affirmative case for an AI apocalypse, but this is by no means a consensus view. Justin Sinclair is approaching this as a psychologist with an admitted focus and interest in doomsday theorizing.
[00:27:42] Malo Bergone is not an AI exec, but as I'm sure he would agree, is deeply entrenched in the AI community and culture, and that contains its own hierarchies and a perspective and discursive politics. That doesn't mean we should not take what he says any less [00:28:00] seriously, not at all, but people are understandably cautious when the AI community reports on itself because there's so much hype and so many misaligned incentives.
[00:28:09] I spoke with documentarian Ted Trumper. He just produced a film called The Apocaloptimist. I was hoping he would be a little apocaloptimistic, but Ted argues that it almost doesn't matter what the tech CEOs really believe. What matters is how they're incentivized, and that is something we can understand Why do you think our, our current default path is so perilous?
[00:28:35] TED TREMPER: There's a, there's a Charlie Munger quote that the people from the Center of Human Technology bring up often. Charlie Munger was the, uh, the investment partner of Warren Buffett, and the quote is, "If you show me the incentives, I'll show you the outcome." Currently, the incentive structure of, of society that this technology is being deployed in is how can we go as fast as possible and to scale the capabilities and the size of these models in such a way so that regardless of whether or not you believe AGI is even [00:29:00] possible, that you are at least cornering the market on any of the capabilities that it is able to produce.
[00:29:04] So if you're able to do that, uh, you get all of the power, all of the money, and therefore it creates an incentive to take shortcuts. Because there is no, uh, really true regulatory structure that is creating any kind of a disincentive to do those things, they just keep going. These companies have literally said that their goal is to replace all intellectually valuable work that humanity produces.
[00:29:29] So what we're talking about there is by and large the entire economy initially and, and then when you get embodied AI in the form of robots, all jobs there, like permanently. When that is in the hands of five companies, it is totally understandable if I'm the CEO of one of those companies and you're asking me, "Would you like to own all of or a fra- or 20% of the entire global economy?"
[00:29:55] In our current system, that's how you win the game. And that's what I mean by the, [00:30:00] the, the, the perverse incentives that we have right now. Like, I actually don't fault these CEOs for doing what they're doing in the context of the existing rules and game. What I do fault them for is... I mean, it's interesting.
[00:30:16] I, I
[00:30:19] I'm not... When was the last time you saw the movie Air Bud?
[00:30:24] SEAN KING OGRADY: Wasn't expecting that. It's been a minute.
[00:30:26] TED TREMPER: There's a famous quote in Air Bud, which I believe is in the trailer, is, "Nothing in the rule book that says a dog can't play basketball." And that seems to me to be the approach for how the CEOs and the companies are approaching the way that they wanna deploy and develop AI across our entire society
[00:30:44] SEAN KING OGRADY: Tech CEOs might be operating like Air Bud.
[00:30:48] This is kind of a joke, but not really. And Ted is in a unique position to discuss these CEOs because unlike us so far, in the course of making The Apocaloptimists, he actually met them, like [00:31:00] all of them, at least all of them who are behind the companies with what we call the frontier AI models.
[00:31:07] TED TREMPER: As I'm sure you're aware, there was an exodus of people who left OpenAI because they were concerned about safety problems.
[00:31:14] Even more than safety problems, it was the phrase I think that Jan Leike, now the co-head of super alignment at Anthropic, he tweeted that basically that safety is taking a back seat to shipping shiny products. And we interviewed over 40 people for the film across those two and a half years on camera.
[00:31:33] And then I interviewed over 100 people on background. In those conversations, the thing that became clear is that once this became a race and once the massive amount of investment started becoming made, the people building the technology by and large became very, very, very, very concerned with pressure being put on them to ship, to ship products.
[00:31:59] From a [00:32:00] safety and ethics standpoint, when you talk to the people who are working in those labs, if they still work there, many of them have literally left because they didn't feel like they could in good conscience continue with these companies. They really feel like there was a massive cultural shift when the business people came in and a lot of VC investment in terms of scaling, et cetera.
[00:32:18] When that took the front seat, people working in the labs became very, very scared. And so that's the business side because I actually think it's important to differentiate the people who are, like, on the business side of things from the CEOs themselves. Well, I should be careful to say that we only s- you know, we, we interviewed, uh, three out of the five CEOs and we, we only spent two hours, like, actually interviewing them.
[00:32:41] So I can't, I can't misrepresent that I've spent a ton of time with them, but there was a point where I had, I had listened to or read every single thing that Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis had ever said, uh, or written publicly. The CEOs themselves actually are, are very articulate [00:33:00] about what the levels of risk that exist are, and they, to varying degrees, will just frankly tell you that they believe, you know, that there's a s- a 10% or a 30% chance of human extinction in developing super intelligent AI systems.
[00:33:15] By and large, I think that at least three of the five major CEOs are actually dedicated toward, like, and believe that building AGI as a thing is possible. I think probably four. I think that two of them are sufficiently concerned by it. And at the end of the day, really what I think you and me and everyone else needs to be focusing on...
[00:33:43] Like, I, I've gotten a lot of questions about, like, are they good people? Are they trustworthy? The fact of the matter is whether or not, like, if our, if our society and the, the future of the human race depends upon whether or not five people are good people objectively, [00:34:00] we don't live in a society that is strong enough to coexist with these technologies.
[00:34:05] SEAN KING OGRADY: Just let that settle in for a minute. If our society and the future of the human race depends on whether or not five people are good people objectively, then we don't live in a society that is strong enough to coexist with these technologies. Wow. I mean, when you think of it like that, it puts this entire conversation in a totally different perspective.
[00:34:34] It, it just really does
[00:34:38] TED TREMPER: I would say with great certainty that there are people who believe that, that extinction risk is, is real. There is at least one billionaire that I know of who is the CEO of a, of a company you have certainly heard of who recently moved back to the United States because this person wanted to spend more time with their children because they believe that society's gonna collapse in, in three [00:35:00] to five years.
[00:35:01] And I don't think that this person would've done that if they didn't believe that.
[00:35:06] SEAN KING OGRADY: We are talking about one of the wealthiest and theoretically most well-informed people on Earth here. Not a tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist, a tech billionaire who genuinely believes society is going to imminently collapse.
[00:35:22] We're going to take a break, and when we come back, Ted Trupper has more for us. And believe it or not, it's somehow even more alarming
[00:35:34] TED TREMPER: In filming the movie, I was speaking to somebody whose identity I can't reveal. This person was, was having a rough day, and I could see it on this person's face, and I kind of checked in on them, and they said to me, "Here's the thing. If all of this went as bad as it could go, if society collapsed, if humans became extinct, [00:36:00] I would actually be able to accept that if we had made that as a choice.
[00:36:07] And the thing that really makes me upset right now is we're just racing to it totally unconsciously." And n- at the time, I think it was true that, like, we just were not even making an attempt to make that choice. And in a way, that's the most depressing thing I've ever heard
[00:36:28] SEAN KING OGRADY: The most depressing thing Ted Trumper has ever heard is now the most depressing thing I have ever heard, and possibly the most depressing thing that you, dear listeners, have ever heard as well.
[00:36:40] Visit any of this episode's advertisers and use the promo code themostdepressingthingihaveeverheard for a 0% discount. Here's my conclusion after speaking to Justin, Malo, and Ted: we can't know for certain if AI will contribute to the end of humankind, but some very smart people [00:37:00] certainly think so. And even more significantly, the CEOs rapidly advancing this technology do actually seem to believe that what they're doing might cause the apocalypse, and they're still not going to stop.
[00:37:12] In fact, they're going to move faster and get bigger, even if that means successfully disrupting this antiquated notion we call life on Earth. We will devote real time later in the season to discussing what we can do about this, but I wanted to let Ted close this episode with his unique brand of apocaloptimism
[00:37:33] TED TREMPER: We have Paleolithic brains, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.
[00:37:38] And the challenges, our current systems are truly not designed to be able to keep up with the technology that's proliferating this quickly. You know, any projection into the future is sort of an act of faith. We can't predict what's going to happen. However, if one becomes convinced that if something like scaling the intelligence of artificial intelligence systems is going to lead [00:38:00] to a catastrophe, the more people that become aware of that, the more resistance there's going to be to that idea.
[00:38:04] If you study the Luddite revolution, uh, of the early 20th century, I think, these were people in England who were expert, like loom weavers, uh, in England. And when mechanization and automation came, they began losing their jobs in droves. These people couldn't eat anymore and couldn't feed their families anymore.
[00:38:21] And the things that they did to be able to protect that were very, very extreme, to the point where the British Crown needed to dedicate more troops to putting down the Luddite revolution than they had dedicated to winning the Napoleonic Wars. So when we talk about this idea of like, oh, will people push back?
[00:38:41] One of the things we've seen recently is like, you know, there are different accusations of what you call AI washing, where it's like, oh, well, if, if my company is doing very poorly and I need to fire 40% of my workforce, if I blame that on AI, that's great because it actually looks like the real reason I'm firing these people is because the technology I'm [00:39:00] using is so great.
[00:39:01] And I think that when you have an entire population who, regardless of what the actual reason why they've lost their job is, if the scapegoat is AI, I think you might see a lot bigger and a lot more extreme marches happening toward those AI companies I think that labor, uh, will begin pushing back. I'm also the, the interim executive director of a group called the Creators Coalition on AI, which is basically trying to unite our industry so that way we are dictating the terms in how AI is proliferating in the creative industries, and how consent, transparency, safeguards, making sure that, you know, things like deepfakes are not proliferating.
[00:39:39] Like, those are things that I hold really dear, and so that's what I'm doing. One of the best pieces of advice that I, that I got from someone who i- was a deeply, deeply concerned extinction risk person was, it is extremely important that you do not try to convince people to abandon their lives and dedicate it towards AI safety [00:40:00] or AI risk, because almost no one can do that.
[00:40:03] And the person gave this metaphor. You know, in World War II in France, a very limited number of people could go and fight on the front lines, but no one would say that the middle-aged woman who worked in an ammunition factory sabotaging bullets was not fighting the war. And that's where I think us as a society, we need to decide what are the things that we value, and when it becomes clear that we have even a very, very, very, very, very small way of pushing back, that we do that in our own lives.
[00:40:36] And if that means marching because you're worried that extinction risk is real, then you should do that. But you should also honor your values. I think there are very, very many ways in which that can go very poorly if people start very extreme actions. I think that just in your life, when you, when you are able to go to a march and you agree with it, go to a march.
[00:40:55] If, if you feel like, um, unsubscribing and not putting money towards a [00:41:00] thing is a thing that you should be doing, do that. It's, it's really like... I think the message of the film is that there is so much community that wants to get this right, that if you find those people, then it doesn't really actually need to be depressing or boring or, or arduous at all.
[00:41:14] It's just sort of part of who you are
[00:41:19] SEAN KING OGRADY: Ah, this is the optimist in apocaloptimist. There are people who wanna get this right, and a lot of them it turns out, and that counts for something. AI might cause the apocalypse, it might not. It might make life on Earth measurably better for most people. It might not do that either. We genuinely don't know how either of those things happens, and as it turns out, neither does anyone else.
[00:41:45] And that's actually the most terrifying thing about all of this, the uncertainty. But here's what isn't speculation: the technology is already changing us right now, not in some hypothetical future where the [00:42:00] AGI finally decides we're annoying enough to delete. No, it's changing us today. We covered one version of this last season, AI psychosis, but in our next episode, we look at something broader and maybe more immediately urgent, how today's technology is quietly reshaping how we think, how long we can hold a thought, what we're capable of caring about, and whether when this moment demands our full attention, we're going to have any left to give.
[00:42:27] What if we find ourselves in just a few years up against a foe who can see moves that we can't even comprehend? What if it's an opera game type scenario and Paul Morphy is the AGI and we're everyone else who just simply can't see what he can see? Whatever comes next, we're going to need our minds, and right now, I don't think anyone would argue that that's the battle we're losing.
[00:42:51] JOHANN HARI: If we don't dramatically regulate social media and dramatically alter the [00:43:00] current business model on which it operates, I think AI will supercharge the acidic destruction of our attention, and I think it would be fair to call that pretty apocalyptic.
[00:43:17] SEAN KING OGRADY: If you're enjoying Suspicious Minds, be sure to follow or subscribe and if you really like the show make sure to rate us on Apple Podcasts and like on other platforms. If you wanna learn more, you can go to the show notes where you can find links to our socials along with links to works from our contributors.
[00:43:34] They appreciate your support and so do we
Episode 04
Lotus
Eaters
-
[00:00:00] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The apocalypse often conjures images of nuclear fallout, humans fleeing killer machines, or rivers of blood and fire. And sure, maybe that's what awaits. No one knows. And as discussed in our last episode, a lot of very smart people who know a lot about all of these things are terrified. But there's another kind of apocalypse that is just as pernicious, and it operates within us.
[00:00:26] In some ways, it is us. This is the enfeeblement or deep rotting of our brains. This is the apocalypse of the mind, and maybe it's already happened. The world as we know it, one could argue, is only real insofar as the human mind processes a unique set of coherent images and ideas from an infinite amount of external stimuli.
[00:00:51] If that processing power is destroyed or even diminished, does the world end? Is it possible that it's ended already? In Homer's [00:01:00] Odyssey, the Lotus Eaters forgot everything: who they were, where they came from, why any of it mattered. Odysseus had to actually drag his men back to their ships to drag them out of their haze.
[00:01:12] The lotus was a fruit with narcotic qualities. Ours is a digital apple that sits in our pocket begging for our attention twenty-four hours a day, and there's no hero coming to drag us away. In this episode, we are looking at artificial intelligence and related technology as they wage war against the human mind.
[00:01:41] This is episode four of Suspicious Minds: AI and the Apocalypse. We are looking at AI, brain rot, and why our loss of attention is an apocalypse of the mind that threatens what it means to be human. Before we get too deep into this episode, I just wanna say thank you to all of you for listening, for sharing, for commenting, just [00:02:00] for engaging with what we're making.
[00:02:01] Means everything, truly. To make sure you don't miss an episode, click subscribe or follow, depending on which platform you're on right now, and feel free to give us a comment or to rate us. We really appreciate it, and it helps with the algorithm, which we're fighting against just as much as all of you are.
[00:02:17] Anyway, thank you, and back to the show. In our last season, we introduced the concept that AI has the potential to enfeeble us mentally. Nate Sheridan from the Center for AI Safety discussed something we might call the Wall-E effect, and it's worth revisiting this as context for this episode. He asserts that the vast and breathtaking applications of human cognition are actually not all installed by evolution.
[00:02:43] Some are developed and maintained by all of us all the time, and if we stop using these faculties, what happens then? If you're around my age, there was probably a time when you could remember dozens of seven-digit sequences of numbers. When we stopped needing to memorize phone numbers, we [00:03:00] lost that. I, I mean, I know I did.
[00:03:02] Yes, with daily practice, we could acquire that skill again, but that's probably not going to happen when I can just punch numbers into my contacts on my smartphone. Here's Nate Sheridan on this phenomenon
[00:03:15] NATE SHARADIN: So I think in the future, reliance on very capable systems, even if they don't approach anything like superhuman level or even human level could make us stupid in a very specific way.
[00:03:28] Um, so AI is going to reduce the marginal incentives that people have to develop a, like, core set of cognitive skills, like those involved in executive function, but also sort of social skills. Various kinds of, like, abilities to interact with other people. These are core regulatory, core cognitive skills that don't come for free.
[00:03:50] They're not the kinds of things that we just pick up. Instead, you have to work at their development, and they have to be maintained over time. These are things like inhibitory control. [00:04:00] Famously, attention is a core cognitive skill like this. We've seen that sort of degrade over the last, call it, fifteen years, right?
[00:04:08] There's, like, a scientific consensus now that social media has been bad for our attention. But now we're, like, very busy developing technology that's supposedly gonna be good at replacing not just attentional capacity, but, like, you know, able to do all of the core cognitive
[00:04:26] SAMEER GUPTA: things on our behalf.
[00:04:28] NATE SHARADIN: And so we'll just, like, people will just get worse at these things over time.
[00:04:31] There's this, like, enfeeblement thing happening that everybody's in the Wall-E chairs, and they're just kind of floating around the spaceship, which is like, we got so good at automation of all this shit that we also created machines that could, like, run our lives for us. But it's not just like they're kind of physically enfeebled, which they are.
[00:04:48] They're, like, kind of just, like, sitting there in their chairs like blobs. Um, but they're also cognitively enfeebled. I think it's a kind of, like, nice, kind of jokey version of the story. There, I [00:05:00] mean, you've got kind of, like, universal enfeeblement, right? Like, all of humanity has, like, committed itself to the chairs.
[00:05:06] I don't think that's a very likely outcome. I think probably we'll get, again, this kind of bifurcation where plenty of people are still quite skilled, um, at the relevant kinds of, like, things we think make for a flourishing, like, cognitive life. And then I think an increasing number of people atrophy those skills because they don't need to use them.
[00:05:25] Like, right now, there's demand to be good at those skills because there's demand elsewhere in the economy or, like, elsewhere in your social life to, like, you know, be friendly, but not if you just have AI companions or not if there's not demand in the workplace for these, uh, cognitive skills anymore. So I think the future looks like one where, you know, on the margins, people are worse at these things, and among certain groups, people are a lot worse at these kinds of, like, basic, uh, core regulatory skills involved with, like, being the author of your own life, right?
[00:05:54] Like being able to set goals and, like, make plans and try to achieve them, those kind of, like, basic [00:06:00] agentic, like, um, features of being a human. I think, like, we're headed towards, like, some people in some version of a Wall-E chair, um, where they've, like, turned over that activity to machines.
[00:06:15] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Nate makes a compelling case that dependence on AI could compromise the vast array of cognitive functions that make us human. And if we cease to be human in ways that we believe are meaningful, what could this be called other than an apocalypse? But now I wanna drill down on one of the specific cognitive functions Nate said is currently being degraded.
[00:06:35] I definitely recognize my own enfeeblement with regards to this mental process, and as a society, we seem to pretty much agree this core ability is being eroded. We all feel it every day. Of course, I'm talking about attention or attentional capacity. This expresses itself in obvious ways. I can't read books with the same focus I once could.
[00:06:58] I love reading, but I'm not as good at [00:07:00] it as I used to be. In a conversation with friends recently about our deteriorating attention spans, I almost bragged that I could watch an hour of television without looking at my phone. We used to hear that TV could rot your brain, and now watching a whole show uninterrupted is an act of commendable focus.
[00:07:19] I spoke with Johann Hari, author of Stolen Focus, about attention and how precious a resource it actually is. This conversation begins with a wider reference to modern technology, but we will fold this back into AI, I promise. Okay, and since I was talking about TV rotting your brain The Oxford Word of the Year for 2024 was brain rot.
[00:07:43] Is that a metaphor or is something actually happening to our cognitive architecture?
[00:07:48] JOHANN HARI: Oh, it's not a metaphor at all. It's, it's a literal physical process that's unfolding. You know, spend an hour on TikTok and then try to read Tolstoy, right? You're gonna really [00:08:00] struggle. How you use your brain changes your brain over time.
[00:08:07] There's a famous example in neuroscience. Taxi drivers in London have to pass an incredibly difficult test. It's called The Knowledge. They have to memorize the entire map of London, which is, uh, not a city built on a grid, right? It's an extraordinarily difficult task. It takes people on average two years to, to learn that map before they can pass the test, right?
[00:08:29] If you look at brain scans of London taxi drivers, they don't look like your brain and my brain, right? They, they have a much bigger area of the hippocampus because they're using that spatial awareness and the memory around spatial awareness much more than you or I do, right? How you use your brain changes your brain.
[00:08:48] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This seems consistent with the WALL-E theory. Our brain literally changes depending on how we use it. But does it matter? I can't remember phone numbers now because I don't need to. [00:09:00] I'm now using the space I used to use to remember how to get around my city for something else. Uh, who cares? As long as it's not changing me and my relationship to the world in a meaningful way then...
[00:09:10] Oh, wait. Shoot, it is.
[00:09:13] JOHANN HARI: It also changes how you think. You know, I would say to anyone, take care what technologies you consume because over time, your consciousness will come to resemble those technologies. If you spend all day reading nasty, sarcastic, horrible comments on Twitter, that will pattern your thinking and you will walk through the world having lots more sarcastic, negative, unkind thoughts when you're not looking at Twitter, right?
[00:09:40] And there's really interesting research from this, people like Professor Raymond Mar in Toronto. If you spend all day reading novels, even when you're not reading a novel, you will be more empathetic, better able to simulate other people's internal lives, better able to think about what's going through their minds.
[00:09:56] So the technologies we consume shape our consciousness very profoundly [00:10:00] and if you're spending all day looking at absolutely meaningless garbage, that will pattern your consciousness, and your consciousness over time will come to resemble that meaningless garbage. We've upgraded the technology and downgraded humans
[00:10:15] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This sounds really bad, but it's actually consistent with every technology that has led up to this moment.
[00:10:21] If you think about it, agriculture changed our relationship to the landscape. The printing press transformed our relationship to words. The George Foreman Grill, Nintendo's Virtual Boy, I'm sure they did something. The list goes on. Is all this simply the process of human beings adapting to the new technologies we create?
[00:10:39] In some ways, is this even harmonious? We have GPS now, so we don't need a big London taxi driver hippocampus. Is this the same as the way we probably don't need our appendix? Is this process almost natural? Johann says no, and identifies a more sinister mechanism behind all of this.
[00:10:59] JOHANN HARI: The most [00:11:00] important thing for people to understand about our current attention crisis is that your attention did not collapse.
[00:11:06] Your children's attention did not collapse. Our attention has been stolen from us by some really big and powerful forces. And the evidence is very clear that when your ability to focus and pay attention deteriorates, your ability to achieve your goals deteriorates, your ability to solve your problems deteriorates.
[00:11:25] You a- feel worse about yourself 'cause you actually are less competent when you can't pay attention. Attention is our superpower as a species, and at the moment, we are surrounded by kryptonite, right? It feels so intuitive that your attention is something under your own control, right? You think, "Well, if I'm not paying attention, that's a failing in me.
[00:11:48] I'm weak. I'm not good enough." But I think we need to understand that we are making individual choices in an environment that is massively rigged against us. As my friend Tristan Harris said when he [00:12:00] testified before the Senate, another person who previously worked for, for Google, um, you can try having self-control, but every time you do, there are ten thousand engineers on the other side of the screen working very hard to undermine your self-control.
[00:12:13] The truth is this crisis did not happen 'cause you had bad habits, and I had bad habits, and our kids had bad habits. This happened 'cause there's some really big and powerful forces. I spent a lot of time in Silicon Valley interviewing the people who designed key aspects of the world in which we now live, and the thing that most struck me about them was how sick with guilt and shame they feel about what they've done
[00:12:40] SEAN KING O'GRADY: We're talking about paying attention like it's the most important thing we do as a species. Johan even claims attention is our superpower. But are these claims a little hyperbolic? Are AI-enabled TikTok algorithms truly an apocalyptic existential threat? Here's Johan on how attention [00:13:00] facilitates the most important thing we do: finding meaning in our lives
[00:13:07] JOHANN HARI: Attention evolved to attach to meaning, which sounds like a very grand and pompous statement, but it's pretty simple to understand. A frog will pay more attention to a fly than it will to a stone because the fly is meaningful to the frog, and the stone is not. We all know this about our own attention.
[00:13:25] I'm a politics nerd. If you gave me a book about, I don't know, Gerald Ford's presidency, I would tear through that, right? I'm-- I know it's pitiful. If you gave me a book about Formula One racing, I don't give a shit about Formula One racing. I would really struggle to pay attention to that, right? It just... I would be bored.
[00:13:45] So when something is meaningful to you, it is much easier to pay attention to it. How do you figure out what you care about? How do you figure out what is meaningful to you? For all of that to happen, you need to have [00:14:00] periods of rest. You need to have periods of mind-wandering. You need to have periods of deep thought and discussion.
[00:14:09] Well, those are all things that are being driven out by the culture, right? When you have a crisis of attention, the main thing you lose is depth. Depth of thought and depth of engagement with other people. And I think that leads to-- that has disastrous effects, right? I-imagine you're on your deathbed, and I say, "You know, you never got a chance to think deeply.
[00:14:33] You never got a chance to think deeply about your goals, about what you were trying to achieve, about who you wanted to be, about how you wanted to treat the people around you, the people most important to you. You never got that." So the algorithms were initially set up just to discover, well, what makes people scroll, right?
[00:14:49] What keeps people scrolling? And they bumped into an underlying truth about human psychology. It's once been known about by psychologists for a long time. It's part of, part of our ment-- our, our, our mental toolkit. [00:15:00] The technical term for it is negativity bias. Human beings will stare longer at things that make us angry and upset than we will at things that make us feel good.
[00:15:09] If you've ever seen a car crash on the highway, you know exactly what I mean. You stare longer at the mangled car wreck than you did at the pretty flowers on the other side of the street. People listening to this podcast, I'd like to think you're finding what I'm saying really interesting. But if in front of you, a bunch of guys start having a fistfight, you're gonna stop listening to me and pay attention to the fistfight.
[00:15:28] This is very deep in human nature. Ten-week-old babies will stare longer at angry faces than smiling faces, probably for a reason deep in our evolution. To put it a bit simplistically, our ancestors who didn't pay attention to the angry faces got eaten. They didn't get to be our ancestors, right? Um, now, that's always been part of our psychology, but when it combines with algorithms that learn you intimately what makes you personally angry, it has a catastrophic effect
[00:15:57] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This crisis of meaning could become an actual [00:16:00] apocalypse of meaning, and we could find ourselves in some sort of slow-motion catastrophe that never feels like the world is ending, but everything we've ever known about being human and having communities and connecting with one another is absolutely deteriorating.
[00:16:12] And th- this might not even be something that happens in the future. This could be happening right now. Like, we could be in it and not know it Does this qualify as an apocalypse even if it's not wanton death and destruction? With this thought in mind, let me tell you a bit of a story about what it's been like for the last few years as a person, me, raising young children in the shadow of this onslaught of technology.
[00:16:41] So a couple of years ago, my son got obsessed with this YouTube series called Skibidi Toilet. So if you have kids under 15, you're probably familiar with it. It's a series that was created inside this video game engine that itself was like digital scraps from a game called Half-Life. And in Skibidi Toilet, [00:17:00] these enormous toilet-bodied creatures with human heads wage this endless war against other humanoid robots with camera heads and speaker heads and giant audio speaker torsos.
[00:17:12] You are not mishearing me. I said exactly what you think I did. This is wild. There's no coherent plot. There's no beginning, there's no middle, there's no end. None of the things we associate with, with story structure are there. It just keeps expanding. It's like new characters, new enemies, new even more incomprehensible lore, bigger battles.
[00:17:30] My son watched it obsessively, and then just as quick as he started, he stopped when the novelty wore off, and he realized it wasn't making any sense and probably never was. And I kid you not, Michael Bay of all people is making a feature film adaptation of this series right now. I'll just leave that one alone.
[00:17:51] I'm about to go deeper on my kids' media consumption habits. Before you hate on me for raising iPad kids, I promise you that's not the case. [00:18:00] Their screen time's limited d- within reason, although I must admit it's a challenge. This is just culture today, especially youth culture. My wife and I want them to enjoy the things their friends are enjoying, and there's also a lot of like good social components to these games.
[00:18:14] Like I played lots of video games as a kid. It's not the end of the world, but it's hard. Some of the social components of these things I've realized are actually antisocial. So that gets me to the next piece of this story. In the wake of Skibidi Toilet, my son and my younger daughter then turned their attention to this Roblox game called Steal a Brainrot.
[00:18:36] Yes, Steal a Brainrot. The title doesn't even make sense. In this game, you're competing for these creatures called brainrots. They have crazy names like Bombardiero Crocodilio, Tralalero Tralala. They're these AI-generated images of these crazy, absurd animal mashups, like part crocodile, part military bomber plane, part fish, [00:19:00] part trumpet.
[00:19:01] It reminds me of, uh, half alligator, half shark, half man from Dr. Octagon. It's set to this like really chaotic Italian electronic music. It's loud, it's fast, it's deeply unconcerned with making sense You play the game by deceiving other players so you can steal their brain rots. That's it. That's the entire game.
[00:19:22] You steal meaningless things from your real friends. It, it's really odd because it's at once cruel and nonsensical, and that lack of meaning behind the cruelty somehow makes it feel even more cruel. I played the game with my kids a little just to kinda see what they were getting themselves into, and I genuinely ended up feeling bad.
[00:19:42] Like, I stole something, straight up stole something from my eight-year-old daughter, and she was sad about it, and that's what I had to do to win the game, and I have this, like, really weird philosophy that I refuse to let my kids win at anything. I just, like, don't think it's good for their self-confidence.
[00:19:58] Anyways, this was awful. Like, m- [00:20:00] and fortunately, my son told me just today that no one plays Steal a Brain Rot anymore, which is a relief to me. And when my kids referred to the game, they referred to it almost as, like, a genre when I asked them about it. Of course, that genre was called brain rot. And remember what we discussed with Johan just a few minutes ago?
[00:20:21] This is where this all goes from being like kind of a funny story to something concerning, and then it'll get really concerning for the end. But brain rot isn't just a metaphor. It's a thing that actually happens to your actual brain. Now, I realize I sound like an old man here. My parents probably thought Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was incomprehensible garbage.
[00:20:44] First of all, they were wrong. Second, uh, this is a tangent within my tangent, but a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles-themed pizza restaurant just opened in Los Angeles, and I'm gonna try to make it out there in the next couple months. I will leave a review as bonus content if I go there, and [00:21:00] I will also prove to my parents that the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles were never meaningless garbage.
[00:21:04] Anyway, back to the point. Maybe this is all just generational confusion. Maybe every generation's children's entertainment is nonsensical to the previous generation, and if that's the case, that's fine. But I kept thinking about something that Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote whenever I would think about steel brain rot or Skibidi Toilet.
[00:21:25] You've heard Eliezer's name a bunch of times this season. He's the person who first theorized that AI alignment could be a problem. He built MIRI, the organization that our frequent guest Malo Bregon runs, and he spent years arguing that we are currently building something that will kill us. And the thing that Yudkowsky said that I couldn't get out of my head was about how the AI apocalypse would announce itself.
[00:21:53] In a 2017 essay that he wrote about warning signs, he wrote that we assume if [00:22:00] AI were going wrong, like truly catastrophically wrong, that someone would notice, that there would be a fire alarm, that events would clarify, that the threat would become legible, and then we'd respond. But Yudkowsky doesn't believe that will happen.
[00:22:14] He argues that the development of something catastrophically dangerous would be messy and confusing and that things would stop making sense before anyone understood why, that you'd see anomalies, strange events, behavior that doesn't add up, but there would be nothing that would really cohere into a legible threat.
[00:22:35] This is a direct quote: "There is no fire alarm for artificial intelligence, only the gradual disorienting feeling that things have stopped making sense." Things will stop making sense. Skibidi Toilet does not make sense. Steel Brainrot does not make sense. And then I thought, like, even if this isn't [00:23:00] apocalyptic, uh, in the way we usually think of, what does it mean that we spent five years teaching a generation of young minds to be fluent in meaninglessness, to prefer content that resists interpretation, that isn't even trying to mean anything?
[00:23:16] Max Tegmark, the physicist who wrote Life 3.0, one of the kind of critical texts of the AI safety movement, opens a book with this fictional story. In his story, a company builds an advanced AI called Prometheus and deploys it gradually, quietly, in ways that no one notices. It earns money by writing code and then producing viral media.
[00:23:38] Through that viral media, it makes more money. It then uses that money to trade stocks, and none of this looks alarming. It just kinda builds the way you would if you were an aspiring media mogul. Every anomaly has a plausible explanation, and what happens is that Prometheus completely takes over, and it's invisible because all of its [00:24:00] actions look like background noise.
[00:24:02] And the question is whether we're capable of noticing what happens in our real world or whether our collective meaning-making apparatus, our ability to say, "This is unusual. This is wrong. Something is off," is functional enough to sound an alarm As I was sitting here watching my kids play Steel Brainrot, like, I was actually thinking, what if this is exactly what Max Tegmark described?
[00:24:28] And the thing is, the first time I read Life 3.0, it's a nonfiction book, so I thought he was describing a company that actually existed, and I couldn't believe I hadn't heard of it. I couldn't believe that I didn't know these things were happening. So when I started to see these things actually happen, when I started to see this media being produced that didn't make sense, it was getting millions, and then hundreds of millions, and eventually billions of views on YouTube, and the game was down-- the Steel Brainrot game was being played by hundreds of thousands of kids simultaneously.
[00:24:57] I- I started [00:25:00] thinking that Steel Brainrot and Skibidi Toilet and some of the other things I've seen kids engage with could be purposely engineered AI nonsense built to steal attention and u- usher in a quiet apocalypse. Like, I thought the beginning of Max Tegmark's book was actually happening in our real world.
[00:25:17] Sometimes I still wonder if that's the case. The thing is that, like, paranoia aside, like, I don't think this is impossible. I think we're inside of this genuine cultural moment where a generation is being trained to get comfortable with insanity, to scroll past confusion without pausing to ask why. To say, "Hey, this stopped making sense a while ago," and just to not care because not making sense is just kind of the vibe now.
[00:25:43] And maybe it's not just the younger generation, maybe it's my generation too. Maybe it's all of us. When we come back from the break, Dr. Amy Levy will tell us about how AI could be priming us to be a more docile, servile species[00:26:00]
[00:26:00] I spoke with Dr. Amy Levy about this attention crisis, about how it's altered the way we exist as humans, and the slow psychological death we unknowingly embrace daily. How is our relationship to the world different even a year ago?
[00:26:15] DR AMY LEVY: I just read The Portrait of a Lady by Henry James, which is an amazing snapshot of what life was like in this period of time, and these people think all the time.
[00:26:26] They spend hours conversing, but also sitting at a park bench, you know, contemplating what's happened. Very, very deep trains of thought that converge with one another. I mean, that was a cultivated way of being. It's very rare to find anyone who does that any longer. I think that there is, uh, a capacity for, for thought and for self-exploration that we are losing, and I, I think it's unprecedented.
[00:26:57] SEAN KING O'GRADY: We don't think deep thoughts on park benches much [00:27:00] anymore. Okay, fine. But do we need to? Maybe that was wasted time, all that stressing out, sitting around thinking in beautiful public spaces. Sure, the pigeons won't get fed anymore, but what if we just hand over the hard thinking work to AI? Will we be happier?
[00:27:17] Here's more from Amy about AI and the psychological concept of Eros. Very broadly, Freud uses Eros to mean the life drive, the opposite of the death drive, which we have covered at length in a previous episode. We'll link to it in the show notes
[00:27:35] DR AMY LEVY: I think it's possible that AI is in the service of eros, similar to, to Freud's thinking about civilization.
[00:27:44] Yes, we're all dying slow deaths every time we spend five hours scrolling on Instagram. But we are relatively placid. You know, we're calm. We're not f- hurting anyone. We feel [00:28:00] pretty happy. You know, our, our individual instinctive lives and energies are sort of withering, but we're coming together increasingly as a collective, and we follow the same leaders, the same ideas.
[00:28:14] Maybe at some point, they won't even be human leaders. Maybe it'll be algorithms, AIs telling us what to believe. But we may be a more docile species, less inclined to be destructive. That, that was his thinking about civilization, that it, it curbs our destructive inclinations, and AI could be seen as functioning at, at this current time, uh, i- in a similar way, where it organizes us, and we defer to it, and then we're less likely to squabble with one another.
[00:28:44] SEAN KING O'GRADY: And look, this all isn't without certain appeal, right? I mean, who likes squabbles? Let's just go full Dr. Strangelove, how I learned to stop worrying and loved AI for doing my thinking for me. But then aren't we back to Homer and the lotus eaters? [00:29:00] This fundamental temptation to relinquish the tension of being human, to stop being human in a sense, and I don't know, this seems bad, right?
[00:29:10] So if we wanted to resist all of this that's currently happening, if I wanna be able to go to the park and sit on a bench and talk to somebody as opposed to just staring down at my phone, how do we even start?
[00:29:25] DR AMY LEVY: I think it begins with that self-reflective moment of, hold on, we're not thinking. We need to think. We need to feel. There's this dependence on the algorithms to make sense of things. You know, it used to be that human beings would rely on their own feelings and their own minds to navigate, and that's slipping away.
[00:29:46] And I think just being aware of that instantly gives rise to a wish to, to take it back. There's something so seductive about digital life. You know, we put in our earphones, and we scroll, and [00:30:00] we get all this information, and we're talking, and we're... all these ideas are going, you know, and flowing, and information is flowing so freely.
[00:30:07] And then like what you said, you know, it-- we're not actually thinking. We're not really reflecting, and it feels to me like we're all sort of converging, you know, into this one great mass, and all our data floating around, and the algorithms making sense of it and giving it back to us, and we're kind of losing our minds
[00:30:29] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This is a critical point I want to dig into more.
[00:30:33] The lotus eaters, the ease with which we give up our deep thinking and our attention. My immediate instinct is this is probably not a good thing for what it means to be a human on Earth. But on the other hand, what's so great about all that mental work that makes us so miserable so much of the time anyway?
[00:30:54] Maybe lotus sounds really good. Where can I get some? Maybe we should just relax and eat until there are [00:31:00] no more worries. Maybe we don't need to try hard things, think uncomfortable thoughts, learn, grow, fight through pain. What good has all of our thinking with these big brains done for us anyway? What do we have to show for it?
[00:31:12] A dying planet that we don't have the will to fix? Or maybe we do. Maybe we just haven't gotten there quite yet. Maybe we still have at least a few more millennia of loving, creating art, creating music, using our bodies and minds in increasingly esoteric ways to push the limits of what it means to be human.
[00:31:29] That sounds like a lot of work, and maybe the work is what gives us meaning. Maybe it's not. I recently spoke with Samir Gupta of Evenplay, a skill-based sports gambling platform, which I recognize sounds like a strange detour in an episode already filled with strange detours, but trust me, Samir is one of the most incisive and interesting minds working in artificial intelligence today.
[00:31:54] We discussed the contentious relationship between human flourishing and human thinking and what gambling [00:32:00] theory might reveal about our fundamental psychology. First, I asked Samir some broader questions about AI and how it's immediately changing our world and what it means to be human What are you thinking when you see...
[00:32:14] Because I'm sure when you see whatever it is, AI is going to destroy the world or AI is going to give us this techno utopia, when I see that, there's a piece of me that says, "Could either of these things be right?" Like I, I doubt it because I've seen enough things not dramatically transform society. But as you who knows the technology well and you who sees the technology from the inside, when you see those things, what are you thinking?
[00:32:39] Are you excited for this next moment? Are you afraid? Are you both?
[00:32:44] SAMEER GUPTA: Um, I, I make these comments and, you know, they're a little bit thought-provoking, and they're probably a little bit true, which is I, I think that in America, 50 million people will lose their jobs over the next two years. And by lose their jobs, I don't mean [00:33:00] unemployed.
[00:33:00] What I mean is that what they woke up today thinking, "This is what I'm gonna do, this is my work," is not what it's gonna be in 24 months You know, I, I, I think there's a big difference between unemployment and job change. And I think what we're gonna have over the next two years is a significant amount of job change.
[00:33:23] That the people that woke up today and that they were accountants, and they were like, "Okay, well, what I do today and what I did last year and what I did five years before that is, you know, create these Excel spreadsheets and fill in these tax forms and submit them to the IRS," well, if that's what you're doing in accounting right now, I may suggest that that might not be what you're doing in 24 months.
[00:33:44] If your job is, as a lawyer, to take briefings from the senior lawyers and from other meetings and to do paralegal work and to do research and to create briefs compiling information across thousands of sources into shorter [00:34:00] documents that can be read by other people making decisions and spending money, I might suggest that in 24 months you might not be doing that job.
[00:34:09] And that chaos is something that deserves to be discussed.
[00:34:15] SEAN KING O'GRADY: And that is so unbelievably threatening to so many people because we, we equate what we do for a living, how much money we earn, all of these things with our self-worth, not just our net worth. And obviously I've been, I've been researching this a lot, but it, it's interesting to think of, like, there's different data on this.
[00:34:37] I don't know what to believe, but, like, I just saw something the other day that, like, preindustrial people worked an average of 15 hours a week. And, and that this, this, like, 40 to 60 to 80-hour grind that we're all in to try to improve our lives, uh, i- improve the quality of our financial lives anyway, this is a [00:35:00] relatively new thing.
[00:35:01] And w- what, what i- is that conversation happening? When you talk about a UBI, is this just so that people don't starve? Or how are you accounting for people's self-worth, self-esteem, and what they do with their time?
[00:35:16] SAMEER GUPTA: We were sold the promise of tomorrow and us creating societal worth at some point in our careers, but that stopped being true.
[00:35:27] And now we, we do what we're doing because we did it yesterday, and we're gonna do it today. And by giving it up, we cause more pain and chaos to our friends, family, and ourselves, so we choose to do it again. If you wipe the slate clean of all professions right now in the United States of America or even globally, how many people would wake up and say, "I want to do the exact same thing as I did yesterday"?
[00:35:56] SEAN KING O'GRADY: 5%
[00:35:59] SAMEER GUPTA: So [00:36:00] m-maybe we get the chance to reinvent and to actually start to reconnect and do things that we're passionate about. I, I think it offers us the opportunity for the first time in a long time AI does. If it does change everything, and if everybody does get to wake up tomorrow without the compulsion to do the same work that they did yesterday, what would they choose to do?
[00:36:24] What would happen if we stopped worrying about money or social prestige?
[00:36:32] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Everyone would be happier.
[00:36:35] SAMEER GUPTA: I think so, Sean. I mean, I think so, but it's an experiment that's worth running, in my opinion, and I think we have the chance to do it, and the only way that we can do it is through AI. It's not gonna be human beings that lead us into this future, Sean.
[00:36:48] Human beings have run things to this point, and, you know, if you dig into the, the histories, uh, Alan Watts' series is fantastic about, you know, Eastern philosophies and, you know, what [00:37:00] Siddharth sitting below the tree realized when he became the Buddha, right? And, you know, there was too much information at that time, thousands of years ago.
[00:37:09] You know, money and prestige was a huge problem for him then, right? Like so apparently these are, like, human conditions. It's just that, you know, he was a prince, so he probably felt them in a, in a way that, like, maybe the, the farmer or the peasant didn't feel them at the same way at the same time, but they did resonate.
[00:37:25] It resonated with the farmer, and it resonated with the, the peasant. I'm not saying money and prestige are bad. What I'm saying is, is that just like my aunt told me, and, you know, we, we pray to the, you know, our God Ganesh, Ganesha Chaturthi's coming up, and, you know, you pray for wealth and monetary success, but it's within a larger scope of prayers.
[00:37:46] It's within a God pantheon where you're praying for, for art and love and family and everything like that. We need to right-size these things so they don't dominate us. So I mean, I, I... That's why I'm such a white mirror person. I, I really do think [00:38:00] that I do not trust humanity to figure out any of this. I don't trust politicians.
[00:38:05] I don't trust CEOs. I don't trust technologists. Uh, human beings, in all of my experience, all my 44 years, have gotten us into all of this. The ones that are in charge are loudly saying, "Well, if you want us to do better, somebody better tell us what to do because we have no idea what you're talking about."
[00:38:24] And then there's silence back
[00:38:29] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I was struck by Samir saying that those in charge are asking for feedback from the rest of us, but that we simply aren't giving it. Is this true? If so, why? Do we not care? Or do most of us just not know this conversation's happening? Have we become so used to technology happening to us that we no longer realize it should be a tool for us to improve the experience of being a human on Earth?
[00:38:56] SAMEER GUPTA: Um, and it's great to have your podcast and this conversation [00:39:00] around. Uh, most people for most of my life have not wanted to talk about this stuff. I remember I went to, like, the Singularity Conference many years ago. Let's call it 15 years ago in San Francisco, and I was looking around a room, and you can imagine who was in the room at the Singularity Conference 15 years ago in San Francisco.
[00:39:16] It was a lot of engineers and futurists, right? And I looked around, and I went to my friends, and a lot of my friends are not that. There's a, a lot of friends that are in the arts, humanities, you know, artists, uh, y- musicians, uh, athletes, businesspeople, philosophers, whatever. Like, I, I have a, a wide variety of friends, and I, I went around and I was like, "Hey, guys, everybody needs to get into that room 'cause that's the room that's building it all, and we need to make sure that it's not just the engineers, and sometimes the engineers that don't like the physical universe that are cur- trying to create a digital universe, that that's not what's gonna be driving this, you know, singularity," which, which I believe in.
[00:39:51] I'm sure you've talked about it a little bit, but it's like, you know, a digital future, right, where artificial intelligence uploads the human consciousness and we live independent of space [00:40:00] and time. And I, I do believe that's gonna happen. But the, the, the notion that we need a, a wide cross-section of humanity, and not just American humanity, like the global humanity, to have their input on what our digital future looks like, I, I think that conversation needs to be had at, at every level.
[00:40:17] Uh, I, I'm not a big believer that governments are in the best position to make changes in this area, but I do think that they can put pressure on private corporations and private citizens to start making, uh, decisions in regards to how we direct the future of this technology
[00:40:37] SEAN KING O'GRADY: How do we direct the future of technology?
[00:40:39] That's the whole game, and one of the seemingly insurmountable challenges because even if we trust that AI could take on the burden of organizing a better and more equitable social order, we hope it understands the best version of ourselves. This isn't even an alignment issue like we previously discussed.
[00:40:56] It's more like I hope it's trained on Siddhartha, [00:41:00] like Samir mentions, and not Skibidi Toilet. But the truth is, right now, it's not necessarily learning from our better angels. It's learning from Reddit and 4chan. Have you been on 4chan lately? Is this what we want AI to think we are? How do we think about the human behavior that trains the AI?
[00:41:19] Not the human behavior we hope and pray for, but the human behavior as practiced in the real world. And maybe we are 4chan, maybe we are Reddit, or maybe we're something else entirely. When we come back from the break, Samir Gupta goes deeper on the psychology of gaming and how if we aren't careful, AI could end up acting like the very versions of ourselves we try so hard to hide
[00:41:44] Carl Jung famously called the version of ourselves we try to hide our shadow self. This is where your vices live, where your darkest thoughts sit and marinate. Samir Gupta believes we might be feeding these shadows directly to AI to train them [00:42:00]
[00:42:00] SAMEER GUPTA: I'll get into my area of acute expertise, which is game mechanics and human behavior and how that relates to AI.
[00:42:07] You know, one of the things that I think we don't talk about enough is, you know, AI is trained on human data sets and human behavior, and we like to intellectualize what human beings do. But if you really look at what human beings do, it's not what the intellectuals claim that we do. It's devices. You know, the largest entertainment industry in the world is real money games.
[00:42:28] You know, gambling, lottery, casino, and the like, five hundred and seventy billion dollars in revenue last year. That's more than video games, TV, music, sports, movies combined. We don't talk about it because we consider it a vice. When you look at the sugar industry or the alcohol or, or the drugs industry, the sex industry, these are much larger industries than the things that we like covering in The Wall Street Journal.
[00:42:51] That is actually human behavior. And if you go to the internet, you will find all of that on the internet. It's like, it's like the internet is very [00:43:00] democratizing when it comes to like, yeah, the majority of content on the internet is stuff that we don't like talking about. And if we're training AI on that, like, are we filtering that out or, or are we including it?
[00:43:14] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Okay, real quick, I want to define a few terms Sameer is about to use. This is really important stuff. These terms are variable reward payout loops and compulsion loops. I wasn't aware of these terms before speaking with Sameer, but I've certainly experienced them. In fact, these forces affect me daily.
[00:43:34] They affect you too. Variable reward payout loop is the slot machine principle. The reason slot machines are more addictive than vending machines is because the vending machine always gives you the Doritos when you put in the money and ask for the Doritos. The slot machine might give you something, and you don't know when, and you don't know exactly what.
[00:43:53] That uncertainty is the entire mechanism. Your brain does not get desensitized to a reward it can't predict, so it keeps pushing [00:44:00] you to pull the lever. Instagram's a slot machine. Every time you open it, you might see something that makes you feel great, a friend's news, a hilarious video, someone responding to your post, fifty likes on a picture, or you might see nothing interesting at all.
[00:44:13] You might see something that makes you really sad. You don't know. You just keep opening it. The variability is not a bug here. It's the entire product. A compulsion loop is the structural container that the variable reward lives inside. It's the cycle. See something that triggers you, boom. Take an action, boom.
[00:44:31] Get a reward, boom. That triggers you to do it again. In a video game, you might fight an enemy. You then get experience points and loot. The loot unlocks a new level. The new level has more enemies. The loop never closes. It feeds back into itself. The design goal is to make sure there's never a natural stopping point.
[00:44:48] There's not a single moment where the game goes, "Okay, you're good. You're done." Social media works the exact same way. You scroll, you get a hit of something interesting, which makes you scroll more, which occasionally gives you another [00:45:00] hit. You're not consuming content. You're pulling a lever that's been engineered by people who understand your psychology better than you do in a loop that has no exit.
[00:45:09] The reason Sameer's point lands hard is that he's saying AI is being trained on the output of these loops, not on what we aspire to be, but on what we actually do when no one's watching. And the lever's right there on each of our own pockets.
[00:45:27] SAMEER GUPTA: And this is the, the humanity that I know so well that I think the intellectuals like to ignore in their, you know, predictions of human behavior or where, where AI is gonna go.
[00:45:38] You know, these variable reward payout loops, like, are the AIs like trained on the same? Again, the largest entertainment industry in the world involves people putting money into a system that they're gonna get less money out of because of the entertainment value in that activity. Is our AI going to be trained, you know, the same way?
[00:45:57] You know, these compulsion loops are, uh, [00:46:00] obviously endemic in, in the gaming industry, but they're also endemic in the video game industry. They're, they're literally what video games-- You know, everything from Candy Crush to the new GTA is all run on the same operant conditioning, but it's also what the Internet is based on and what social media is based on.
[00:46:17] Those dopamine hits, that variable reward payout. You post something, how many likes am I gonna get? That's all basic operant conditioning with compulsion loops with variable reward payouts. This is what drives almost all human behavior, and we don't like talking about it. So my question is: How are we going to pattern match this into our AI?
[00:46:39] Because I don't think we should ignore it or let all the intellectuals assume that we're making decisions based on, you know, goodwill or the best of humanity. I think we're humans, and we're gonna do human stuff, and that the AI, if it's trained to be like humans, is gonna start doing the same stuff that we do
[00:46:59] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Sameer's [00:47:00] reckoning with the same obstinate forces as Johan: the human mind, negativity bias, compulsion loops, the death drive, as we've previously discussed.
[00:47:10] These qualities we developed at some point along the way as some sort of survival mechanism are now our weakness, the fissure in our code waiting to be exploited. And even the optimistic elements of our discussion are, are messy. All of this is. When I was talking with Sameer earlier, I speculated that 5% of people would continue in their current profession if the slate was wiped clean and they could start over without worrying about money.
[00:47:36] The context was an AI-powered universal income or post-economic situation of some sort. But I wasn't content with my own speculation, so I decided to conduct a poll. I didn't have time before this episode needed to be edited to go to a mall or something. Besides, who goes to malls anymore? So I went where the people actually are: Instagram.
[00:47:57] And while my Instagram friends [00:48:00] probably aren't an exact random sampling of the population, I received responses from people with some of the following professions: film people, lots and lots of film people, cinematographers, editors, an actor. But beyond entertainment, I had lawyers, real estate agents, personal trainers, entrepreneurs, and service industry professionals.
[00:48:18] So I think that's kind of a random sampling. And the results stunned me, truly. 77% of people in my very non-official poll said they would continue doing what they do today to make ends meet even if they didn't need to make money. And this made me feel really good for everyone. Good as in, hey, a lot of us like the way we spend 40 to 80 hours per week.
[00:48:43] We've found things we're passionate about, and that's how we add value to society a- and also create income for ourselves. But then almost immediately after, this made me profoundly sad because maybe all the excitement I had when talking to Sameer about a workless future would be a [00:49:00] future in which we are no longer needed to do the things we currently are, and that would strip our lives of even more meaning than we've already lost to the various agents of distraction But this is the moment.
[00:49:11] This is the crisis. None of us can know if there's an apocalypse looming, but we can bet on it on Polymarket. We also don't know what form that apocalypse could take. Brain rot apocalypse, Skynet apocalypse, nuclear war, new plague, climate disaster, meteor the size of Connecticut. Sorry, I was having a little too much fun with that.
[00:49:33] But we do know this: there's a long history of people planning for the end of the world. In fact, much longer than you might imagine. In the next episode of Suspicious Minds, we explore the fascinating and rich history of doomsday prepping, and meet the man building the world's most secure bunker island compound.
[00:49:52] THE PREPPER: Am I like Noah's Ark? Is God having me build this for a reason? Sometimes I get like this, like why?[00:50:00]
[00:50:03] SEAN KING O'GRADY: If you're enjoying Suspicious Minds, be sure to follow or subscribe and if you really like the show make sure to rate us on Apple Podcasts and like on other platforms. If you wanna learn more, you can go to the show notes where you can find links to our socials along with links to works from our contributors.
[00:50:19] They appreciate your support and so do we Also, as a heads up, from now on, Suspicious Minds will be dropping every single week. Thank you so much for listening
Episode 05
Decameron Days
Part 1
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[00:00:00] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The Decameron was written around thirteen fifty AD by Giovanni Boccaccio, and it's about ten people who form a quarantine bubble outside of Florence in order to escape the bubonic plague. They didn't have the term quarantine bubble, of course, and they didn't even know germs existed yet, but they did more or less what we do now when we confront an external threat: take shelter, bunker down, wait it out.
[00:00:30] The book is basically made up of the stories people tell each other to pass the time, and it's considered a part of the classical canon of Western literature. It remains relevant and essential, at least in part because this is what we still do. This is maybe the oldest, best thing we as humans do. We gather together around the fire.
[00:00:50] Our small group has some defense against the cold and frightening night, and we tell stories. That's what we're doing here now, only instead of a fire, we've got the digital glow of whatever [00:01:00] device we're on together. This episode is about the modern version of what the people in The Decameron did, those who see the cold, frightening night coming and are preparing their defense.
[00:01:11] We'll explore the history of bunkers, of doomsday prepping, and look at how artificial intelligence is transforming these ancient practices and producing new and futuristic threats. We'll also talk about how rich and powerful global elites have been plotting their escape plans for a long time. Surprise, you're not invited.
[00:01:42] Will artificial intelligence contribute to the premature extinction of humanity? What are the cultural and psychological origins of apocalyptic thinking? These are some of the questions we've been asking. In this episode, we're approaching the AI apocalypse from a new angle. What are people doing in response to this threat?[00:02:00]
[00:02:00] How does one prepare for the end of the world? I spoke with leading authorities on bunkers, on doomsday prepping, and on what the psychology of preparing for the apocalypse reveals about the American mind. But let's begin with bunkers. Bunkers are fortified shelters designed to protect you from bombs, bullets, tornadoes, self-aware nuclear-ready Grok robots, whatever it might be.
[00:02:21] They're usually underground, and they range in comfort from dirty cellars you'd never wanna step a foot in to five-star Jetson-style resorts designed to make you forget that you can never leave. I recently spoke with Bradley Garrett, who literally wrote the book on bunkers, which is called, you guessed it, Bunker
[00:02:41] BRADLEY GARRETT: My name is Bradley Garrett.
[00:02:43] I am an honorary fellow at the University of Sydney in the School of Geosciences, and I'm the author of Bunker: Building for the End Times.
[00:02:52] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Great. And, and what e- what exactly do you spend your time doing? What do you research?
[00:02:56] BRADLEY GARRETT: Generally, as a geographer, I'm interested in, in [00:03:00] subterranean space, so I spend a lot of time in tunnels, bunkers, sewers, electricity, and power tunnels.
[00:03:07] I, I... d- you know, anything underground I'm fascinated by.
[00:03:12] SEAN KING O'GRADY: As we've discussed in the previous episodes, apocalyptic thinking and discourse has been around for thousands of years. So I don't know why I was so surprised to find out bunkers have been around just as long, if not longer. So how long have people been building bunkers?
[00:03:29] BRADLEY GARRETT: Oh, man. These, these bunkers that I saw in Turkey a couple of weeks ago, just incredible. I went, I went to the city in Cappadocia called Derinkuyu. The part that I was able to explore was about eight levels deep, but apparently it goes much deeper. And at some point they had the ability to house 20,000 people in the city with livestock, drinking reservoirs, all sorts of stuff.
[00:03:59] And [00:04:00] they, they had these, um, three or four-foot high rolling stones to close the tunnel entrance.
[00:04:07] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The Derinkuyu underground city is more than 2,000 years old. It was likely first carved around 800 BC, which is just a shockingly long time ago. The city descends at least 18 levels and reaches 280 feet below the surface.
[00:04:24] It was a fully functioning city that happened to be underground. Bradley has a provocative claim that centers these ancient bunkers firmly in our exploration of religion and the apocalypse. I saw in your book that you actually speculate that the cave that, I guess, Christ goes into and gets the stone rolled in front of could have been a bunker.
[00:04:50] BRADLEY GARRETT: Yeah. Well, that was, that was Cappadocia. That's where I was a few, a few weeks ago. The timeline makes sense, right? I mean, this is about the time that [00:05:00] people are writing the story of Jesus rolling the rock from the cave, and Turkey isn't that far from where the story's being written. I'm sure somebody saw that and, and came back and told that story, "Oh, I found this amazing place where there's an underground city and they roll a rock to, to exit the cave."
[00:05:20] I can't prove it, but you know, I have a, I have a gut feeling that there's some sort of connection there
[00:05:28] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The most fascinating engineering detail is those rolling stones. They're shaped like millstones, some of them weighing hundreds of pounds, and they can only be rolled from the inside. That's because they weren't just doors, they were a statement.
[00:05:43] Whatever is happening up there is so dangerous that we are willing to seal ourselves underground and wait it out. These weren't paranoid people building for an imaginary threat. They built this because invasions, Persian, Arab, Roman, were a recurring feature of life in Cappadocia [00:06:00] for centuries. The apocalypse wasn't a thought experiment to these people.
[00:06:04] It was Tuesday
[00:06:07] BRADLEY GARRETT: It's hard to imagine the skills and engineering to be able to build that two thousand years ago. They had cut in these vertical ventilation shafts to bring air into the tunnel systems. But it's also hard to imagine what, what these people were confronting that caused them to be so afraid that they spent, you know, probably generations digging out this underground city.
[00:06:33] It, you know, kinda puts everything in perspective for me because the Cold War in this context is, like, very recent history. And so if you, if you look to the long term and you think about people surviving in prehistoric times, you think about people crossing the American West, like, people have always dealt with incredible adversity, with conflict, with war, with famine, with drought, [00:07:00] and they prepared for those things.
[00:07:01] Those people were all preppers. They were constantly thinking, "What are we gonna do if we run out of food?" Or, "What are we gonna do if these people attack us over here?" I think actually what's, what's novel is that we got into this mindset where we're, like, not worried about things anymore. In some ways, the kind of moment of neoliberalization in the '80s, we started connecting world markets, and we had global trade.
[00:07:27] It gave people a kind of mutated sense of optimism about what was possible, and I think it disconnected us from reality in many ways, the reality that, like, yeah, sometimes you're just gonna have to deal with stuff that's complicated and dark and difficult, and that's fine. You know, we have such a low tolerance as a society now for anything going wrong.
[00:07:54] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Bradley used the word neoliberal. This word comes up a lot in discourse these days. [00:08:00] Curiously, it came up a lot in this particular episode. When describing bunkers and prepping, neoliberalism is consistently brought in to help explain. I'm going to get more into that later, but wanted to note it here because while I first heard the word while working on this episode, I had no idea what it meant.
[00:08:16] Okay, back to Brad. Bunkers have been around for thousands of years, and except for some relatively minor technological innovations, they're basically the same idea. We go underground for safety. I wanted to know if this instinct reflects something deeper about our psychology
[00:08:33] BRADLEY GARRETT: Robert Macfarlane wrote this book, Underland, a few years ago, and he said something like, "The underground is where we store what we find sacred, where we bury what we wanna get rid of, and where we go when we need to feel safe."
[00:08:51] You know, there's something to that, that they're... The bunker, in a way, there... I mean, there's something kind of Freudian about it, like going back in the womb. It's our first home, you know? [00:09:00] Like, we moved into caves because they were safe spaces that we could defend from. It feels like an organic process that we would move from the cave to the bunker.
[00:09:10] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Is AI much of a factor within the prepper community?
[00:09:14] BRADLEY GARRETT: Absolutely. Toby Ord at the University of Oxford wrote a book called The Precipice a few years ago, where he says that there's a one in seven chance, I believe, that AI destroys humanity in the next 100 years. I mean, it's on his list of the seven top existential threats.
[00:09:34] It is the top threat, and preppers took notice of that. Absolutely. They tend to be, uh, not necessarily Luddites, but a little technologically adverse. And I think what they're concerned about is not a kind of a big bang moment, but a kind of cascading failure that comes from that, where systems start shutting down and dysfunction [00:10:00] starts rolling in.
[00:10:01] The integration of technology with critical infrastructure is one of the things that they're very concerned about, that our water supply or power to our houses could be shut down, not necessarily through a cyberattack, but artificial intelligence has taken control of it, right? And deciding you're not allocating these resources correctly.
[00:10:24] This is now going to be controlled by the AI, and we're gonna decide who's gonna get what, and it's all gonna be based on some rational calculation that doesn't necessarily benefit humanity.
[00:10:36] SEAN KING O'GRADY: How do bunkers allow us to interrogate kind of our current social moment or collective psychology?
[00:10:43] BRADLEY GARRETT: Any time that we're in a period of crisis, whether it's political, economic, social, people tend to pull back, right?
[00:10:54] They, they, they move into a defensive position, and we certainly saw that during the Cold War. [00:11:00] I feel like, um, there was a sociologist that came up with this great term. He called, he called this the Second Doom Boom. Like, the Cold War was the First Doom Boom, and we're in the Second Doom Boom now, and I, I, I do feel like that's where we're at, you know, that people are, are kind of withdrawing into themselves.
[00:11:18] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The Second Doom Boom. This is incredible, and we see it everywhere, right? Products for surviving the apocalypse, a seemingly endless supply of books, films, podcasts, including now this season of our show, that only exist because of this rising wave of extinction anxiety that is being further heightened by artificial intelligence and fears about an emerging technology we don't understand.
[00:11:43] But for many people, the COVID-19 pandemic was the turning point
[00:11:48] BRADLEY GARRETT: So FEMA collects these surveys, the National Household Survey, every couple of years, and one of the questions on the survey is, "How long could you survive without any [00:12:00] access to resources?" Prior to COVID, it was three point nine million Americans said they could survive for thirty days.
[00:12:08] After COVID, it's almost fourteen million. If you told your friends and neighbors in 1998 that you were stockpiling water to get through thirty days, they would say, "You're a kook. You're insane. Like, why, why would you do that?" Now you tell people that and they're like, "That's awesome. I'm also prepping." You know?
[00:12:29] Like it's, it's become, it's become normalized, um, which in a way is kind of sad. When people start building bunkers and stockpiling supplies, it's an indication that people are feeling unsafe generally, and they're, they're feeling less optimistic about reaching out to other people and collaborating. If I think about this sociologically, it feels to me like the more people [00:13:00] distrust the state to take care of th- their affairs, you know, or to take care of them in an emergency, the more people are gonna take it upon themselves.
[00:13:09] And of course, that's been the narrative since the Cold War. I mean, there was a speech that JFK gave in, I think it was '63, and he basically said, "In our conflict with the Soviet Union, it's not provocation that we seek, but preparation." And then he sort of made this call to all Americans to prepare themselves for a possible calamity, and people did.
[00:13:38] That was the first doom boom, right? People were buying bunkers from the Sears catalog. They were digging up their backyards. They were putting their preparations in place. And perhaps one of the things that's driving a lot of the conspiracy theories at the moment is that that threat never manifested, so it, it felt [00:14:00] in some ways like a betrayal.
[00:14:01] Like, you, you told us that we had to do this. We have increasingly moved into an age where the government is taking less and less responsibility for the population, and I think the, the inevitable result is that people will withdraw. So yeah, I, I think you could probably make a pretty clear correlation between how dysfunctional the government is with how many people are prepping.
[00:14:29] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Brad's instinct here is actually backed by data. As discussed in a previous episode, Justin Sinclair, who writes for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, that's the organization that sets the Doomsday Clock, found a significant correlation between how close that clock sits to midnight and how much Americans distrust their government.
[00:14:48] The more the clock ticks forward, the more people prep. Justin actually just published a paper about his findings, which we have linked to in the show notes. Before we hand things off to our next guest, I [00:15:00] wanted to ask Brad one more thing. I wanted to know if the preppers he's met were optimists or pessimists.
[00:15:07] BRADLEY GARRETT: The number one takeaway from my research is that every prepper that I met had hope in the future. I went out into this community thinking that I was gonna find a bunch of like, you know, kooks that were anxiety-ridden and completely pessimistic about the state of society and the future. That's not what I found at all, because as one of them told me, "Why would I be prepping if I didn't have hope in the future?
[00:15:29] Uh, I would just be a nihilist, right? I would just give up." What they were telling me instead, which really shocked me, was, "We want the future to be better than today
[00:15:42] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Hope. Not the word people associate with doomsday preppers, best known for stockpiling freeze-dried food and bullets. And over the next few episodes, as we explore the world of planning for the apocalypse, this won't be our last surprise when it comes to the psychology of this particular group of people.
[00:15:59] Our [00:16:00] conversation started shifting from bunkers to preppers, and while there is some overlap in these concepts, it's worth spending some time defining exactly what a prepper is and how prepping, while not distinctly an American phenomenon, relates to some specifically American ideas. We'll do that when we come back after the break
[00:16:23] A prepper is an individual who proactively prepares for emergencies, ranging from personal crises like job loss or localized natural disasters to widespread societal or economic collapse. Preppers prioritize self-reliance through long-term food storage, acquiring survival skills, and securing emergency supplies.
[00:16:44] Thanks, Wikipedia, for that definition. I wanted to know more about the psychology of prepping and how this informs our current attitudes towards artificial intelligence. Robert Kirsch and Emily Ray are political theorists and co-authors of a fascinating and [00:17:00] honestly, really surprising book called Be Prepared: Doomsday Prepping in the United States.
[00:17:05] I think to fully understand the way in which an apocalypse, like an AI apocalypse, specifically functions in our society and collective psychology, we need to examine the ways in which we have historically responded to existential threats and what, if anything, is different this time. When I first started researching this subject, I didn't think political theory would be a valuable lens through which prepping could be examined.
[00:17:29] Turns out it is. Here's Emily Ray
[00:17:34] EMILY RAY: A lot of the work that's been done on prepping comes out of like sociology, anthropology, trying to understand human behavior. And we thought that prepping could also be explored, not just looking at what compels or motivates individuals to engage in this, but what are the broader social and political forces and institutions that give rise to these kinds of what we perceive to be institutionalized [00:18:00] behaviors and responses to collectively shared problems.
[00:18:04] And so political theory gives us the conceptual frameworks to think about populations and to think about institutions and those relationships without necessarily getting into the weeds on specific psychological motivation and those suite of theories. But what are the compelling reasons in the world?
[00:18:22] Like, what is the state of geopolitics? How do people react to fears, crises, both perceived and real? And what enables or disables those choices that they're making? What makes prepping a rational thing to do? Uh, and so that started to connect us to the broader world of theorizing of neoliberalism and ideology, fears about ideological kind of brainwashing, uh, and thinking about what are the actual structures that have been created within our own government and then reified through our culture and society.
[00:18:58] SEAN KING O'GRADY: All right, there it is [00:19:00] again, neoliberalism. For the purposes of this conversation about bunkers and about prepping, let's define this term because it's complicated. And sorry, Wikipedia, you don't cut it this time. So here's Robert and Emily Can you first start off by giving me your definition of neoliberalism?
[00:19:20] ROBERT KIRSCH: Neoliberalism is the managed absence of the state. And I use that word managed, uh, specifically because in the sort of broader telling, uh, of the story of neoliberalism, there's this, like, state, uh, removal, and there's just nothing there. The state recedes from meeting the needs of a vast majority of the people.
[00:19:43] We leave people to the whims of the market.
[00:19:45] EMILY RAY: We should be pursuing the means of our own needs and even our own thriving through the market because the market is where we kind of know the true expression of the value of something that can be bought and sold. It also kind of extends to the [00:20:00] subjectivity where we might think of ourselves as not as citizens, but as customers and as consumers, so people that buy and sell in education.
[00:20:08] We buy and sell healthcare and medical access, that these are all things that are monetized and all things that exist on the market rather than something that is provided or provides kind of the substance of what living in a free society looks like.
[00:20:24] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This idea of consumption as the ultimate evidence of freedom is a defining tenet of American prepping and American life in general, really, as I'm reminded annually when I log into the healthcare.gov marketplace to get my health insurance.
[00:20:39] But let's get into the origins of this phenomenon. I wanna dive into a pretty extensive history of prepping in America before looping back to AI and Silicon Valley because this is all just really fascinating, and if you've made it this far into this podcast series, you'll find it interesting as well.
[00:20:57] One of the things I loved about your [00:21:00] book was the, the history of prepping in America. I wasn't at all expecting the, the history to be so rich and kind of fascinating.
[00:21:10] ROBERT KIRSCH: One of the things that we also realized was that this behavior didn't start recently at all, that the US has long sort of had this anxiety, a sort of apocalyptic anxiety about what was happening to it as a country, and it goes back quite a ways.
[00:21:26] But we try to sort of peg it in the late 19th century as a start because we think there are, uh, a few things happening, right? There's mass migration, people from other countries coming in, and so there's a sort of xenophobic anxiety that gets induced, how America should manage or integrate or not, uh, some of these immigrant populations.
[00:21:50] You have a rapid onset of industrialization where a lot of the ways that people lived their lives were totally upended in ways that must have felt [00:22:00] really traumatic or just really upending. And, and they just had to figure out what's next, you know? Like, the, this way that I thought we were gonna live our lives is gone, and so what do we do instead of that?
[00:22:13] And then I think you had, at the same time, the westward expansion into what's now the western United States, which was not a smooth, easygoing process, and I think led to some existential questions about, like, what are we doing here? Why is it that these social relations, these ways of life that I thought were more or less static, you know, there's this American ideal of, of a gentleman farmer, you know?
[00:22:37] Someone who just works the land, provides for their family. That's all gone by the late 19th century, and I don't think it was clear what that was going to be replaced with. And so I think a lot of Americans started to think, uh, apocalyptically about this then.
[00:22:54] SEAN KING O'GRADY: How familiar does this sound to our current discussions about AI and our jobs?[00:23:00]
[00:23:00] The way that I thought we were going to live our lives is likely gone, and it's not clear what's going to replace it, and what will we do instead of that? It seems like the same set of fears and anxieties. What was our response then, and can that provide insight into how we should react today?
[00:23:18] ROBERT KIRSCH: One of the responses to the mass industrialization of the United States in the late 19th century, people were really worried about the effect that was having on themselves and their communities.
[00:23:30] This fear goes back all the way to, like, Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations. He talks about how industrial production makes workers, uh, I believe he used the word mean, but he means, like, less intelligent. Your job is to hit the hammer on one part as the, the line goes by or, or whatever it is. And so in the U- US, in the early 20th century, with, uh, folks like William Morris, the handicraft movement gets born out of that.
[00:23:57] Good Americans need to know how to make things [00:24:00] start to finish. Things like handicraft, DIY, tinkering, hacking are all sort of ways to try to recapture that element of being a good American, even if it's based on a myth.
[00:24:15] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Interjecting quickly here that Adam Smith worrying about industrial production making people mean or stupid is the exact same argument we've made on this podcast about AI as an agent of mass cognitive enfeeblement.
[00:24:25] So are my enfeeblement concerns different and more valid in some way? Or am I also worried about
[00:24:34] losing an idea of humanity that's based on some kind of myth? How many of our concerns of mass AI-related societal change are just the same fear of loss of an imagined idealized identity, whether that's a rugged frontiersman or, I don't know, somebody who can write their own emails from the comfort of a cubicle?
[00:24:54] Are we always worried we're getting dumber, or are we actually getting dumber? [00:25:00] Are we not the same people that made the world we live in today? We don't have these answers, and that's why it's worth having these conversations. That's why it's worth doing this research. These are big questions, and they deserve answers, even if they're not easy to find.
[00:25:13] Here's Emily continuing this history and bringing us from the 19th century into the 20th and then the 21st
[00:25:22] EMILY RAY: During the First World War and Second World War, how the US became very, like, compelled towards prepping is dramatic. Some of it was the encouragement from the federal government for everyday people, especially women, to grow war gardens during the First World War, to participate in rationing goods that needed to go to send material to the front line of the wars.
[00:25:44] And prepping meant can your own goods. There were home and garden magazines that were published during the First World War that had, uh, images of Kaiser's head in a pickling jar to imply that if you [00:26:00] do your bit canning and preserving food, you are directly helping win the war. And then through the Second World War, there was also a push for the Victory Garden, and even planting flowers that would cheer people up while they were kind of remembering that they're on the right side of history.
[00:26:14] Some of those are specific ways that the federal government encouraged this kind of behavior that on the face of it doesn't scream doomsday prepping, but it is very much part of marshaling these kind of civic institutions and organizations to galvanize people around the idea of being preppers is being a good American.
[00:26:34] And then when we get to after the Second World War into the atomic era where nuclear energy transforms politics, the world, the federal government really wrestled with what to do about preparing Americans to potentially face an atomic bomb being dropped on US soil from the Soviet Union. And Truman wrote these memos.
[00:26:56] The National Security Council had memos. They made [00:27:00] a deliberate choice to not provide specific survival tools like bunkers or public bunkers or individual bunkers for individual families because they wanted to prepare people to do their own survival skills and to make accommodations for their own survival from the bomb, because in so doing, they would be affirming that kind of radical individualism that meant that the US was still winning the ideological war.
[00:27:27] ROBERT KIRSCH: And there's, there's two things I think that I would point out from these, these documents. One is that the federal government fully understood that if there was a full nuclear war, the vast majority of Americans were going to die. Some estimates as high as ninety percent, and, and it all depends on all the, the factors that go into gaming these things out.
[00:27:52] Another interesting thing was that the government said, "Okay, if we're being serious about this, if Americans want [00:28:00] to protect themselves from a nuclear detonation, they have to be in blast shelters." Right? And so blast shelters have to be entered into before detonation, right? Or else there's... You know, it doesn't work.
[00:28:14] And so they said, "That's the preferable way to get through a nuclear war, but we understand that Americans are not going to do that, and it's really expensive, and we're not gonna pay for that. So what we're going to do is suggest that Americans take it upon themselves to build fallout shelters." And just as an aside, like, there's-- that's why we, we draw this really clear distinction between blast shelters and fallout shelters, right?
[00:28:36] So fallout shelters are places where you can go after the blast, and if you're far enough away from the blast, you stand a chance of seeing the next day. Literally, I think one of the annual reports from the FDCA said, you know, "American forefathers built this l- land out of log cabins, and Americans building a fallout shelter, that's the [00:29:00] log cabin for the nuclear age."
[00:29:01] I mean, really this, like, absolute accessing of this, like, id of what it means to be an American
[00:29:11] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The Gaither Report is the document at the center of all of this. In 1957, President Eisenhower commissioned a secret study of America's nuclear vulnerabilities. The committee was chaired by H. Rowan Gaither, head of the Ford Foundation and RAND Corporation.
[00:29:27] If the RAND Corporation sounds familiar, it's because that's where Daniel Ellsberg famously did not take his pension from because he believed by the time he was old enough to receive it, we'd all be long dead from nuclear war. Anyway, on November 7th of that year, the commission presented their findings to the National Security Council.
[00:29:46] The conclusion, in plain terms: a full nuclear exchange, most likely with the Soviets, would kill most Americans. Blast shelters would be built for the government, for Congress, for the very [00:30:00] people making the decisions about who should be protected. Individual Americans would be advised to build their own fallout shelters.
[00:30:08] In a discussion that's rife with conspiracy theories, how this actual conspiracy often goes unspoken or is so little known i- is pretty shocking to me. I mean, here you have the very group of people who's making the decisions about who gets saved deciding to save themselves and telling everybody else, "Figure it out.
[00:30:33] You'll be okay. Or not
[00:30:37] ROBERT KIRSCH: And so for the government's perspective, they were saying, "Okay, we need blast shelters. We'll build those for all the right people, but we will not build them systematically for all Americans." And they said they weren't going to do this because it was too close to Soviet-style communism, right?
[00:30:54] Like, if the government provides for people, you know, what's the point? We may as well just give up. And [00:31:00] so the American government was fully okay with this scenario where they were advising Americans to take it upon themselves to build fallout shelters, knowing full well that if there was a nuclear detonation, somewhere between 50 and 90% of them were going to die What I think we can take from that is that that's a kind of really ghoulish calculus that the government was using.
[00:31:24] This is an example of a neoliberal policy, right? The state says, "We're not going to do this for you," right? Like, "We'll build the stuff that we need for our people, and we'll take care of the things that we need to, but we're not going to provide you, the average American citizen, a shelter." Right? "You do that by yourself."
[00:31:42] So that's that managed absence of the state.
[00:31:46] EMILY RAY: One of the kind of members who helped run the civil defense agencies wrote an article that said fear is more dangerous to us than the atomic bomb because fear is what might drive everyday Americans to [00:32:00] make poor choices like increasing dependency on the government, expecting somebody to come rescue them.
[00:32:06] But more importantly, they might become vulnerable to communist propaganda because their fear makes them weak, and that weakness is a kind of a porosity of the mind that makes communist propaganda more effective. So it is better to have, like, Americans die in their bunker than to have Americans survive so fearfully that they might become communists.
[00:32:27] But it was quite unlike, um, other countries. Like, here's a subway system in Great Britain, and everybody is going to be ushered in, and here's how we have enormous public scale bunkers. Uh, that just wasn't the case in the US, and that it would be better to die an American. And that fear should be enough to motivate you to take action to buy the bunker, and these same people that were in the civil defense agencies were also selling bunkers on the bunker market.
[00:32:53] So they were doing the time-honored thing of playing the private market while also trying to make public [00:33:00] policy that benefits that private market. So that's not particularly unusual.
[00:33:05] ROBERT KIRSCH: So in other words, if there's a catastrophe, and Americans don't make it through or they suffer some kind of harm or trauma as a result of that event, it becomes easy to say, "Well, they should have prepared better," right?
[00:33:19] They should have bought more stuff. They should have made sure the stockpile was ready. But this idea that in the face of these existential threats that Americans face, ecological, social, thermonuclear, take your pick, right? That if we really face these threats that are apocalyptic, and the answer is to, like, buy a bucket of dried goods.
[00:33:46] I mean, it-- In what world does that, does that meet the scale, or does that meet the, you know, the intensity of that threat? And so this relationship evolves then, right, where [00:34:00] individual consumerism becomes the answer for public threats and public dangers, public risks And I think what that shows though is the inadequacy of these individual consumer responses because I, I just don't see that there's a way that that behavior can meet the scale or nature of the risk or the threat or however you wanna frame it.
[00:34:26] But that relationship is cemented. I think it's difficult to imagine an America where we are not invited to default into a sort of consumerism. Regardless of what the question is, consumerism seems to kinda be the answer. As Andrew Szasz says, "Shop your way to safety," right? So, so it's up to Americans then to make wise or judicious purchases in order to sort of see through calamity to the other side, [00:35:00] and that's one half of it.
[00:35:01] The sort of other half of that is that it implies that if Americans don't do that, then they deserve the fate they get.
[00:35:10] SEAN KING O'GRADY: After the break, we'll be back with Robert to hear how his theories about bunkering can help us understand the culture of Silicon Valley today
[00:35:21] How does your theory of bunkerization help us understand Silicon Valley?
[00:35:29] ROBERT KIRSCH: I think that Silicon Valley is in many ways the sort of manifestation of a bunkerized society. It exhibits this sort of bunkerized mentality that, like, you can do things yourself. In fact, you have to do things yourself. Not only is the state receding, but it should go away because we don't need it anymore.
[00:35:51] Because, you know, you'll make the right decisions and buy the right things, and you'll have all the right skills that, you know, you can sort of be an [00:36:00] effective end-to-end advocate for your own public existence. Silicon Valley embodies this ethos of a famous essay called The California Ideology, uh, kind of argues, where there are people that have a sort of attitude of libertarianism in a lot of, like, interpersonal ways.
[00:36:21] Free love, free association, contracting with whomever you want to do whatever you want, you know, this sort of thing, while at the same time politically are rigidly authoritarian. And I think we're sort of seeing that play out. And so some elements of Silicon Valley take bunkerization quite literally. You can look at, you know, the Seasteading organization, which is run by the grandchildren of Milton Friedman, which I think is appropriate.
[00:36:53] This is like an opt-out politics, you know. People who are collecting passports, looking at [00:37:00] building things in international waters where, you know, the rule of law of states can't touch them. And even though the vast majority of Americans can't themselves participate in this kind of behavior, it's the sort of, again, institutional arrangement that we're sort of expected to, to, to behave in where we live this ethos out
[00:37:25] SEAN KING O'GRADY: You have a really great term that I've actually never heard before, opt-out politics.
[00:37:30] ROBERT KIRSCH: Right.
[00:37:31] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Can you explain to me what that is?
[00:37:34] ROBERT KIRSCH: Yeah. So I think in a nutshell, opt-out politics is basically if you think about a sort of average citizen encounters this really complex world where public institutions look fragile, and maybe you're not so sure that civil society, government, the state are, are going to do the things that you think they should do.
[00:37:55] Uh, you can look at that landscape and think to yourself, "Well, we could decide [00:38:00] to, like, fix these institutions. We could make a more robust public sphere. We could strengthen civil society, uh, you know, build those communal bonds," but that's really complicated. It's messy. It's a long-term project. And so instead, what I'm going to do is say, "Well, forget about that.
[00:38:17] It's been a failure. It's been this disaster, and all I can do now then is sort of opt out of that," say I'm, I'm, I'm not going to do this sort of long-term work because it's doomed or because it's too long term, and in the meantime, I'm going to opt out of it by going back to the land or in some way extricating myself from these complicated politics that I find myself in.
[00:38:42] SEAN KING O'GRADY: As we see artificial intelligence becoming a thing that now has people talking about apocalypse in sort of a renewed sense post Cold War, what do you see changing as far as in the prepping community or even in the, I guess, need [00:39:00] for people to, to prep and the likelihood that there will be some sort of mass disaster in the near future?
[00:39:07] EMILY RAY: Yeah, those are really great questions, and, uh, none of that gives us a lot of reason for hope, but it's important to unpack them. One of the things that I think about a lot is increasing automation of choices that should be made by human beings using their ethical and moral discretion. And instead, when we increasingly automate or think that artificial intelligence is a more rational, capable thinker, that we might be transferring what should be human-made, ethically guided decisions, say about dropping a bomb or some kind of act of cyber terrorism or something that we do.
[00:39:48] Also, we're assuming that these are like failure proof.
[00:39:54] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I interviewed Emily a few months back before it was revealed that Claude was actually being used in selecting targets for bombings in [00:40:00] Iran. How quickly theory becomes practice, concern becomes reality
[00:40:06] EMILY RAY: It is not conscious. It doesn't possess intelligence.
[00:40:09] If you ask neuroscientists who are honest, I don't think anybody really knows where and what intelligence is. We don't even know where consciousness is in the brain, but we give all of these kind of describe an artificial intelligence as if it has agency, as if it's a thinking person.
[00:40:28] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Fortunately, we have a neuroscientist we can ask, a world-class one, in fact.
[00:40:33] Here's Dr. Michael Ferguson, director of the Harvard Neurospirituality Lab
[00:40:39] DR MICHAEL FERGUSON: There's three different terms that I parse out from each other. One is mind, one is consciousness, and the other is intelligence, and they get used interchangeably, but I really do think that they're very independent things and that they're not even necessarily interdependent.
[00:40:55] So with intelligence, we should clarify too that most of the time [00:41:00] in AI, when people are talking about intelligence, they're talking about a pretty narrow form of intelligence that cognitive scientists call fluid intelligence, which is about recognizing patterns and completing patterns. So with fluid intelligence, you don't necessarily need to have consciousness or awareness.
[00:41:19] So for us to say, "Okay, we've got an artificial intelligence," to me, it doesn't necessarily follow that it has to either have consciousness or even be a mind
[00:41:31] SEAN KING O'GRADY: So there we have it from a neuroscientist, just like Emily asked. Back to her.
[00:41:38] EMILY RAY: And then there's also the actual infrastructure to create a world that can support so much Gen AI machine learning software for everybody to make a goofy picture or a video that then circulates on another big environmental draw, which is social media.
[00:41:55] I mean, the infrastructure of our technologies is part of what's exacerbating the climate crisis, [00:42:00] and it's using energy which requires fossil fuels and et cetera, et cetera.
[00:42:05] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This is a paraphrase of Sam Altman. It was in response to somebody asked him about the environmental impact of the data centers they're building.
[00:42:12] And he said, "Our only hope to solve man-made climate change is to make an AI smart enough that can solve the problem."
[00:42:19] EMILY RAY: I think he also went on to say that you invest a lot of resources, environmental resources to get a human being to be, quote-unquote, smart enough to problem solve. Why not just invest that into a Gen AI software that will, I guess, yield more bang for your buck?
[00:42:38] So that was a pretty anti-human position. Um, I also don't particularly like thinking about humanity just being a sum total of the resource investments into an individual, and also kind of conflating like human intelligence with a machine that doesn't have intelligence is again amplifying the story that [00:43:00] isn't actually anchored in how these things work yet.
[00:43:03] But I think Altman and a lot of people who operate in kind of that Silicon Valley kind of tech lord world are what you would call accelerationists
[00:43:14] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Emily uses the term accelerationist here, which we defined a few episodes back. A link is in the show notes. And we're going to return to this in a later episode where we discuss the dark enlightenment and TESCREAL, which is a crazy acronym that we'll define in that episode.
[00:43:30] But long story short, it involves transhumanists, singularitarians, and accelerationists, and these are all types of people that we'll end up talking to before the end of this series. Emily has particularly fascinating insights into transhumanism and the singularity, and the relationship those ideologies have to bunkers.
[00:43:49] Like, is offloading your consciousness into a hard drive just the natural evolution of hiding in a bunker? But that's for a later episode that I am stupidly excited about. I'm also [00:44:00] not done with bunkers in the modern survivalist movement. Specifically, I wanna spend more time on the psychological elements at work here.
[00:44:07] But we're out of time in this episode, so we'll be picking back up in part two of Decameron Days, our exploration of doomsday prepping in the age of AI. In this upcoming second part, we're also going to speak to people who are actually building these bunkers and making plans to ride out all kinds of potential disasters, real, imagined, and as we'll see, imagined can sometimes become real and way, way faster than we possibly could have predicted.
[00:44:35] I leave us with Bradley Garrett, whose research into the history of bunkers changed his life in ways he could not have possibly anticipated.
[00:44:45] BRADLEY GARRETT: So I've gone through this, this radical transformation since the book came out. I left cities. I moved out to the Mojave Desert. I bought five acres. I'm moving towards self-sufficiency, and I [00:45:00] am more prepared than most people at this point for the next crisis, and it's not going to be a pandemic, but, you know, something is coming around the corner inevitably, and whatever that is, I'm gonna put myself in the best position I can be for it.
[00:45:14] I guess I drank the Kool-Aid a little bit.
[00:45:23] SEAN KING O'GRADY: If you're enjoying Suspicious Minds, be sure to follow or subscribe and if you really like the show make sure to rate us on Apple Podcasts and like on other platforms. If you wanna learn more, you can go to the show notes where you can find links to our socials along with links to works from our contributors.
[00:45:39] They appreciate your support and so do we
Episode 05
Decameron Days
Part 2
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[00:00:00] SEAN KING O'GRADY: It's a story we all know. A man heard a warning no one else could hear. The rain was coming, enough rain to end the world, so he built a boat. The story spends a lot of time on the flood itself. It spends almost no time on the years before it, the decades of building, what it was like to be the only person in town who believed the sky was preparing to release a flood that would cover the entire Earth.
[00:00:28] His neighbors laughed at him. Of course they laughed. Until it started raining and didn't stop, Noah was just a madman with a boat. Last fall, I stood on two hundred and forty acres in the Minnesota wilderness and watched a man dig a lake around an island with a shelter underneath it big enough for fifty people to live comfortably.
[00:00:51] I asked him why, and he told me about the nights he lies awake wondering the same thing. His voice has been augmented to protect his identity and will be [00:01:00] throughout the episode.
[00:01:02] THE PREPPER: Sometimes I'll be home at night w- wondering, "Why in the heck am I doing this? Why am I spending all this money to do something like this?"
[00:01:11] 'Cause sometimes I feel like it's out of control. For whatever reason, God's blessed me. I mean, all the bad things I've done in my life, I've done a lot of bad things. Why am I chosen to do this? And sometimes I feel like this is, is kind of stupid. I don't really feel this way, but it's crossed my mind. It's like, what, am I like Noah, like Noah's Ark?
[00:01:31] Is God having me build this for a reason?
[00:01:44] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This is Suspicious Minds: AI and the Apocalypse, Decameron Days Part 2. Thus far, we've explored the history of bunkers and traced the underlying ideology of bunkerism to contemporary Silicon Valley and the philosophies [00:02:00] surrounding artificial intelligence. Now, I want to spend more time on the psychological implications of bunker culture.
[00:02:07] Not only what this says about the people loading up on guns and astronaut food, but what we can learn about the anxieties and fears of this current moment, particularly how they relate to emergent technology and, as we'll get into, our conceptions of modern masculinity. This is a particularly visual episode, and as of the last two weeks, we now have a video version of the show on Apple Podcasts, so I recommend checking out the video as long as you're not, like, driving or out for a run or something equally as unsafe.
[00:02:35] There's a lot to look at in this one. And by the way, as long as you're on your podcast app, give us a follow or a rating. It helps. As a heads-up, this episode goes pretty deep into doomsday bunkers and might feel a little different from our other episodes, but I promise we circle back to artificial intelligence and apocalyptic thinking and how these things affect the human mind.
[00:02:57] But to really connect all that from the jump before we take [00:03:00] this detour, guess who else is talking about bunkers these days? Our good friend Sam Altman.
[00:03:07] THEO VON: A lot of these guys have bunkers. Zucky has a bunky, I know that, somewhere out in Hawaii. People have bunkers. Do you have a bunker?
[00:03:15] SAM ALTMAN: I have, like, underground concrete, heavy-reinforced basements, but I don't have anything I would call a bunker.
[00:03:21] THEO VON: Hold on, hold on, hold on, dude. Look, I'll let you s- I'll let you keep me on the ropes in a lot of this conversation, but I am gonna call that out as a dang bunker, dude. Sam, that's a bunker.
[00:03:31] SAM ALTMAN: What's the difference in a basement and a bunker?
[00:03:33] THEO VON: A w- a place you could hide when it all goes off or whatever.
[00:03:36] SAM ALTMAN: I- no.
[00:03:37] Yeah, I have been thinking I should really do a good version of one of those. Okay. But I don't, I don't have, like, a... I don't have what I would call a bunker, but it has been on my mind.
[00:03:46] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Wow, okay. If he's considering building a bunker, or maybe already has one , it's kind of unclear, maybe we should all be thinking about this.
[00:03:55] When we left off at the end of our last episode, bunker author Bradley Garrett had just [00:04:00] confessed something. The academic who wrote the book on bunkers told us he'd gone through a radical personal transformation. He drank the Kool-Aid, in his words. In our conclusion to this two-part episode, we find out what was in the cup.
[00:04:15] It starts, as so many of these stories do, in March of 2020
[00:04:22] BRADLEY GARRETT: I stopped at home for Christmas, then COVID happened. I had no furniture. I had no clothing. I had, like, no possessions at all. I had a suitcase. And I'm holding my book and thinking, "Oh my God. Okay, I need to go back through it and through my notes and try and figure out what I missed here."
[00:04:40] And it was so glaringly obvious. There were these quotes that I had in my notes from people telling me, "A pandemic comes around about every 150 years. It's like clockwork. We're overdue for a pandemic."
[00:04:54] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The researcher who spent years embedded with preppers got caught by the very thing they had warned [00:05:00] him about.
[00:05:01] It was interesting talking to Bradley about this because he truly thought these people were crazy, until all of a sudden they weren't, much like Noah and his neighbors.
[00:05:11] BRADLEY GARRETT: As an ethnographer, as a researcher, it really put me in my place because I was writing things down, but I wasn't listening. So I've gone through this radical transformation since the book came out.
[00:05:24] I left cities. I moved out to the Mojave Desert. I bought five acres. I'm moving towards self-sufficiency, and I am more prepared than most people at this point for the next crisis, and it's not going to be a pandemic, but, you know, something is coming around the corner inevitably, and whatever that is, I'm gonna put myself in the best position I can be for it.
[00:05:49] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I want to stay on something Bradley learned from one of the people he studied, a man named Robert Vicino, who bought a massive bunker in the UK, because it's the best description of [00:06:00] prepping I've probably ever heard.
[00:06:02] BRADLEY GARRETT: He described it to me as, as an ark, which I thought was hilarious and kind of interesting.
[00:06:07] But he was like, "But this ark, you know, it doesn't pass through space. It passes through time." It makes sense, right? You stockpile yourself to build a bridge to get through a period of time, and you hope that when you get on the other side, y- you're gonna be in, in a relatively good position to be able to rebuild or help other people.
[00:06:25] So there's, there's almost something altruistic about it.
[00:06:30] SEAN KING O'GRADY: An ark that doesn't pass through space, it passes through time. Noah built for 40 days of rain. There's some debate over the correct amount of time to plan for, but modern preppers build for what they believe is the time of chaos they'll need to endure.
[00:06:48] BRADLEY GARRETT: Every prepper has their baseline, and the three-day mark is, is actually what most people work on. You have enough to get you through a short period of time until help arrives. [00:07:00] And since I returned to the United States, it's become more and more clear to me that help probably isn't coming in a disaster.
[00:07:07] We've spent decades hacking at the social safety net in this country, and our infrastructure is falling apart. Emergency services aren't going to show up, potentially, if things get really bad. So I'm trying to buy myself enough time that I can totally reconfigure my life and the way I'm thinking about things.
[00:07:29] So I-- Three months seems like enough time to me that if things get really bad, by that time I'm thinking about growing food or whatever, which is hard to do out here
[00:07:41] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The shape of the vessel changes and the duration someone will have to stay in it is never quite the same. But the need for a shelter to escape the flood is consistent across time.
[00:07:51] And Bradley's personal version of the ark might surprise you because it isn't a missile silo, not even close. [00:08:00] It's a neighborhood
[00:08:02] BRADLEY GARRETT: We're hanging out all the time. Bonfires are absolutely happening. We're definitely close when we go on holiday. We look after each other's houses. This is a kind of neo-tribalism that people think, you know, we can build the community we want with our neighbors in our communities.
[00:08:21] First, I'm going to take care of myself and my family and then my neighbors and then my community. And then if there's like anything left, I can like stretch out from there. The thing about where I moved is everyone's a prepper up here because you have to be. We're, we're all on five acres in the middle of the desert and we have to share resources.
[00:08:41] We have to share equipment. We have to share knowledge. Now we're in a position where we could block our road. We could band together with our neighbors. We're all armed and we just stop people from coming up here completely and maintain self-sufficiency. So I'm not worried about my neighbors and most of the preppers that I speak to [00:09:00] these days.
[00:09:01] That's their thinking too, is like, you need to rely on your neighbors. The only way you're going to make it through something like that is if you have a strong community and you have a strong sense of who you can rely on. The idea that you're going to go it alone in your backyard bunker and then pop out of that in a good situation is just, you know, it doesn't really make sense anymore in my opinion.
[00:09:21] If I'm thinking about my family and our neighbors around us, the better prepared everyone is, the longer we can all go in an emergency before things take a dark turn. I'm always trying to rally the neighbors like, let's fix the roads. Let's have an emergency evacuation plan. Let's figure out how we pop these county water tanks if we need them that I'm staring at out of my window.
[00:09:49] Let's think about these things. And that's what prepping is basically. It's a, it's a speculative thought experiment. If this happens, then what do we do? That's [00:10:00] become my role in the community as an expert on prepping is to say, okay, so I've learned all of this stuff in the course of writing this book.
[00:10:08] Let me tell you what I've learned. And then, you know, we can all decide as a community whether we want to act on that, that information or not.
[00:10:16] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Five acres and a bonfire. Bradley's ark costs about what a used truck costs if you buy in the right spot. So it was interesting, 'cause I was talking to Bradley just to hear his expertise on spending so much time with so many other preppers, and on bunkers and underground spaces.
[00:10:31] I truly wasn't expecting that I was going to get a bit of a twofer in the sense that I was interviewing an expert and a prepper. It was really cool, and I loved how he was doing it in a way that pretty much anybody could do if you're willing to just make a couple sacrifices. Maybe not even. In the tradition of American prepping, this idea of community prepping is kind of a radical one.
[00:10:54] As we discussed in the last episode, there's this myth of the frontiersman and the self-reliant [00:11:00] survivalists that are part of the American fabric that exist in opposition to this kind of thinking. Remember, the American government made an ideological decision that we the people would be left to fend for ourselves in an all-out nuclear war, because collective responsibility is something too close to communism, and we'd rather die in a nuclear winter than accept that I just kinda can't get over this.
[00:11:24] Like, this is the conspiracy, a plan in which our collective fate was decided by those in charge as they made wholly separate plans to save themselves. Like, we could do a whole episode on the bunkers that the government built for themselves. There's this, uh, there's, there's this writer Garrett Graff who wrote a really good book called Raven Rock that goes into some of these bunkers and the, and the plans that were made.
[00:11:46] We'll link to it in the show notes. But enough on that. There's a version of prepping I'd like to introduce you to, a different version, a very different version. If Bradley's version is to pool [00:12:00] resources and create a prepped community free from what we think of as bunkers, this other version is at the most extreme opposite end of the bunkering spectrum that you can possibly imagine.
[00:12:12] STEPHEN COLBERT: 'Cause the hottest trend is billionaire survivalist bunkers. Only two things in life are certain: death and taxes, and billionaires have figured out how to cheat both. Mark Zuckerberg, uh, Zuck has bought up a chunk of land in Hawaii and is building a Bond villain compound where his family can see out the apocalypse, costing $100 million, featuring two mansions joined by a tunnel which branches off into an underground bunker.
[00:12:38] So, if you wish for all billionaires to be six feet under, you should have been more specific. And Zuck's bunker is not even the weirdest. Billionaires are now building fortresses with fiery moats and water cannons. Well, water cannons only make sense. You're gonna need something to put out your moat. And this right here, by the way, is not a screenshot from [00:13:00] Minecraft.
[00:13:00] That is an actual rendering of an actual compound being built by doom bunker developer, and man hinting with his eyes where he's gonna put that thumb, Al, Al Corbi, who brags, "We wound up literally building a 30-foot deep lake around the compound, skimmed with a lighter-than-water flammable liquid that can transform into a ring of fire."
[00:13:23] And it burns, burns, burns, the ring of fire, and the goons I hired.
[00:13:37] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Al Corbi spent three decades of his life designing security for the Department of Justice, protecting the people who protect the country and gaming out disaster scenarios for them. Al's actually a really fun guy to talk to 'cause he will tell you the darkest stuff you've ever heard in a way that makes you laugh a lot.
[00:13:58] And for the last several decades, [00:14:00] he and his wife, Naomi, have run a company called SAFE, which designs fortified estates for people whose names you'd know and whose addresses you could never find out. The scale of their work is hard to picture, so I'll let Al describe it for you.
[00:14:15] AL CORBI: The same year that one of my clients spent a hundred and three million dollars on his security for his one estate, that same year, Oprah gave us fifteen hundred dollars to harden a townhouse in Chicago, and we gave her two hundred dollars back.
[00:14:32] So, you know, you're looking at thirteen hundred dollars all the way out to a hundred and three million, both being very, very effective at what they did
[00:14:44] SEAN KING O'GRADY: One of Al's current projects is the property I visited last fall, 240 acres. The client, we're not going to name him, of course, grew up in the only house in his town without running water, and now he's building one of the most elaborate and secure private shelters on [00:15:00] Earth.
[00:15:00] And we, shockingly, were granted access to it. Al in fact said it is the single most secure doomsday bunker that exists, and that it can survive a nuclear blast from as close as one mile away, and house 50 people for up to 30 years with absolutely no assistance from the outside world. If you haven't pieced this together yet, this is the bunker island from the Colbert clip, and it's unlike anything I've seen before, ever, truly.
[00:15:26] Like, when Colbert calls it Minecraft, this looks like real-life Minecraft. And the wildest part of this story actually isn't any of that. It's how it all started. It started, like many things, with jet skis.
[00:15:40] AL CORBI: So I'm saying, "Gosh, if you like to jet ski that much, well, why don't we just make a moat? You know, we'll just dig a moat, and we'll have a little island out in the middle of the moat."
[00:15:50] Just, "Okay, we'll build a moat." The moat, the 20-foot moat, wound up becoming a 150-foot moat, [00:16:00] 30 feet deep. So all of a sudden it was a lake. And, and, and you don't dig a lake with Bobcats. The dozers and the trucks are too big to be on the highway. They have to put them on flatbeds and bring them in. Three of them.
[00:16:17] I mean, this is like a public works project. But then there's the, there's the obvious, right? What are you gonna do with all this dirt? Oh, wait a minute. We could use a mountain. We're gonna put the mountain around the perimeter of the property.
[00:16:36] SEAN KING O'GRADY: A moat that became a lake, a pile of dirt that became a mountain.
[00:16:40] And on the lake, one more feature: water cannons sourced from Sweden that lock onto jet skis for what I can only describe as combat recreation.
[00:16:50] AL CORBI: The cannons will lock onto the jet skis. So while you're out there playing flag jet ski, trying to get your buddies flying off his jet ski, the cannons are [00:17:00] shooting you off your jet skis.
[00:17:02] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The water cannons actually do serve a purpose, by the way. They lock on, meaning have autonomous targeting for the jet skis, and can knock you off a jet ski in a way that probably isn't super pleasant, but it's fun, like a giant Super Soaker with automatic aiming. But what they're really for is knocking Apache helicopters...
[00:17:20] I, I kid you not. The water cannons can autonomously lock onto Apache helicopters and knock them out of the sky because, you know, having your compound attacked by Apache helicopters is apparently a thing that happens to some people. Like, really, this has happened to some of Al's clients before. And yes, they survived.
[00:17:40] AL CORBI: One of the sides of the water cannon, imagine, you know, July, hot out, you're having a barbecue and everything. The water cannons can go like this, and they can make rainbows for you. So, I mean, you just- What more do you want, right? A rainbow in July.
[00:17:57] SEAN KING O'GRADY: A rainbow, the symbol God [00:18:00] sent Noah to promise the flood would never come again.
[00:18:03] This one is made by defensive water cannons. I- I'm not going to unpack that because I'm not sure I really can, so I'm just going to leave it there, something for you to think about But here's the thing you need to understand about the man at the center of this. He is not building a novelty. He's also not building for a flood.
[00:18:22] He's building against a very specific nightmare.
[00:18:27] THE PREPPER: I didn't build it with the intentions for nuclear warfare. My scenario is an EMP. All power's gone. People turn the water on, no water. Ninety-nine percent of people probably have supplies in their house to maybe last three, four days, maybe a week. So what's gonna happen after that when people go to the grocery stores and there's no groceries?
[00:18:51] I'll be self-sufficient. I'll have a hydroponics room, endless amounts of water, and endless amounts of food and air, and I'll be protected [00:19:00] from anybody trying to penetrate into here.
[00:19:06] SEAN KING O'GRADY: An EMP, an electromagnetic pulse from a weapon, a solar flare, or you know, a rogue AI agent that takes down the electrical grid.
[00:19:15] There are a lot of people who share this fear. The, the EMP is something, because we're kinda overdue for one. There's this thing called the Carrington Event. So you can click on the show notes, but here's the quick and dirty version. In September 1859, a British astronomer named Richard Carrington was sketching sunspots when he saw a blast of white light erupt off the surface of the sun.
[00:19:37] About 17 hours later, the sky appeared very strange. Auroras, commonly known as the northern lights, appeared over Cuba, over Hawaii. This doesn't usually happen. Miners in the Rockies woke up and started making breakfast because it was so bright out, they thought it was morning. And the telegraph, the only commonly used electronic communication technology on Earth at that time, [00:20:00] essentially blew up.
[00:20:02] Like, all the telegraphs . Operators were knocked off their feet by sparking equipment. Some stations caught fire, burning the operators' fingers. Others reported they could disconnect their batteries and keep sending messages from the power of the electricity falling out of the sky. That was the Carrington Event, the largest solar storm in recorded history, hitting a planet whose entire grid was a few thousand miles of telegraph wire.
[00:20:29] This will happen again. We, we, we are truly overdue. The sun does this every century or two. In a smaller storm in 2012, a year of many apocalypse predictions, actually missed the Earth's orbit by about nine days. Only when this happens again, it won't hit telegraph wires. It'll hit everything. The device you're listening to this on won't work.
[00:20:54] Some people think airplanes might actually fall from the sky. All electronic communication [00:21:00] will cease immediately This will be unlike anything the modern world has experienced, and this really freaks a lot of people out, including me, if I'm being honest. And for clarity, the Carrington Event was a natural solar flare.
[00:21:14] It occurred from the sun. An EMP could also be caused by something like a nuclear warhead going off near satellites in space or a number of other factors, or just a rogue AI agent that gets into the system and decides to start taking things down. For most of this conversation, the end of the world is not a fireball.
[00:21:33] It is a power outage that doesn't end. Where did this fear come from? Because God didn't tell him an EMP is coming. No, the fear is from what other people will do in such a scenario. It's a fear of other people, and that fear actually has a pretty benign origin story in a typically quiet gated community.
[00:21:55] THE PREPPER: That was a huge thing for me when that home invasion was a couple houses down from me. Three [00:22:00] assailants came in, they busted the man door in the garage. They walked in, come across an elderly couple, tied them up, blindfolded them, gagged them, and went through their whole house putting guns to their head.
[00:22:11] That reaffirmed my decision of what I'm doing, and that's just, that's just normal times, peace time
[00:22:20] SEAN KING O'GRADY: But the bunker isn't his only protection from the things that keep him up at night. He's also looking to the sky for protection at the same time that he scans it for threats.
[00:22:31] THE PREPPER: I will have a perimeter detection to where a drone will automatically come out of, uh, out of its own cubicle that stays charged on the roof, and that drone will fly to that area wherever it was detected and video them, and I'll be able to see it live time.
[00:22:49] I could shoot pepper spray at them if I wanted to from the drone. I could shoot, uh, hard steel balls at them.
[00:22:56] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Yeah, Al showed us a, uh... Al showed us a drone, a video with a [00:23:00] drone recently that the drone has, has gunpowder in it.
[00:23:03] THE PREPPER: Mm-hmm.
[00:23:03] SEAN KING O'GRADY: And so it actually, like the drone can, can face ID somebody and basically burrow into their head and explode.
[00:23:10] It's like a, it's like a sniper. It's like a drone sniper that-
[00:23:14] THE PREPPER: Yeah, I don't think that's
[00:23:15] SEAN KING O'GRADY: legal.
[00:23:18] SAM ALTMAN: Yeah,
[00:23:19] SEAN KING O'GRADY: I don't think that's legal either. But these exist. They're called kamikaze drones, and human-operated FPV kamikaze drones are transforming warfare in real time in the war in Ukraine. We'll show this in a second here if you're watching, and if you're listening, you'll just have to hear the kamikaze drone and then click down in the show notes if you wanna look at a YouTube video showing this stuff.
[00:23:39] It's crazy.
[00:23:41] CLIP: With artillery in short supply and Russian forces making breakthroughs, FPV drones are becoming Ukraine's best hope for combating Russia's vast fleets of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other components of Putin's war machine. Stop. Super. We saw firsthand how they're also used [00:24:00] to pick off individual Russian soldiers.
[00:24:03] AL CORBI: Back to
[00:24:09] SEAN KING O'GRADY: my conversation with our prepper. Like, have you thought about psychologically what that would be like if the worst happens and there is civil unrest and you have to kill somebody on your property, like the weight of-
[00:24:20] THE PREPPER: It would be terrible. Uh, I mean, I don't wanna kill anybody, but kill or be killed.
[00:24:25] That's the only way I would ever kill anybody. I would... I, I... My whole... The whole setup is to avoid that. But if it ever were to get to there, I'm set up for that too, and hopefully that will never... There's things that I have that hopefully I'll never have to use
[00:24:44] SEAN KING O'GRADY: He's of course talking about his flaming moat, water cannons, various landmines, autonomous projectiles, and the room he has with the trash compactor style closing walls.
[00:24:54] You know, like that famous scene from Star Wars.
[00:24:56] CLIP: The walls are moving. Don't just stand there, try and brace it with something[00:25:00]
[00:25:03] SEAN KING O'GRADY: He assured us that this whole setup is designed so that he never has to hurt anyone. Which brings us to the tunnel, the only way in. And again, I need to remind you of something before you hear this. This is a show about artificial intelligence. Like, when I saw this thing, it's really intimidating. It feels like you're pulling up to the gates of Jurassic Park, only behind the gate there's a whole bunch of AI and other tech, and walls that can shoot at you if they detect you, and a swimming pool that can dump water on your head and trap you in a tunnel and drown you, and all kinds of other, like, horrific ways to die instead of raptors and a T-Rex
[00:25:42] AL CORBI: The bollards pop up, so now they can't go forward- Mm-hmm
[00:25:45] they can't go backwards. The best they can do is get out of their car. Oh, you'll appreciate this. The tunnel is w- one of the first adaptations of AI security. The tunnel will talk to [00:26:00] you. It will take you through scenarios. It will be polite to you and ask you to leave. Mm-hmm. If you say no, even the flames will start low before they build up, so it'll give you plenty of time to turn around and go away.
[00:26:13] So it's layered security with a very bad ending- ... if you wanna g- I don't... No one's gonna go there.
[00:26:22] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The tunnel will talk to you. It will be polite, and if you don't listen, it escalates. Gas, flames, a hydraulic ceiling, a human-sized microwave. In our last episode, Emily Ray worried about handing life-and-death decisions to machines.
[00:26:39] Here, that theory has been poured in concrete out front of a man-made lake in the American Midwest. Imagined things have a way of becoming real much, much faster than we can predict. That's kinda why we're having this whole conversation about AI right now. We did not think we would be here this quickly.
[00:26:59] Before we leave the [00:27:00] tunnel, I need you to hear the other thing Al told me, because the man who has spent 50 years building perfect walls has noticed something about the newest threat.
[00:27:10] AL CORBI: For 50 years, Safe has been able to protect you against everything and anything short of the Earth tipping off its axis.
[00:27:18] Technology has allowed Safe to be able to c- create the most protective environments imaginable. Bunker busters, doesn't matter what's happening, we can protect you, if you have the financial wherewithal. Okay. All of a sudden, there was a new crack in the armor, AI, and we realized Safe can't protect you against AI.
[00:27:40] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The best walls money can buy, and the newest threat doesn't care about walls. Sam Altman, by the way, was asked a question about bunkers and AGI, and his response is telling. Here we go. Quote, "None of this is gonna help if AGI goes wrong. This is a ridiculous question," end [00:28:00] quote. So, you know, that's comforting.
[00:28:04] Al does have a plan for protecting clients against AI, by the way. I don't wanna misrepresent his abilities, mostly because I don't want him to kill me, but that's something we'll get to later on this season. And one more thing about the man building all of this, the prepper himself. I asked him if he ever regretted starting and spending this insane amount of money building this fortress
[00:28:27] THE PREPPER: None whatsoever.
[00:28:28] There's nothing I would rather be doing. Nothing. On a blueprint, it's a lot smaller, so it's a little bit bigger than I thought it was gonna be. You know? I mean, "Oh, this room? Oh, that ain't big enough," and, "Oh, this game room? Oh, this is not gonna be big enough." And then now I'm like, "This is, this is big."
[00:28:47] SEAN KING O'GRADY: There's nothing he would rather be doing. Hold on to that. Because the joy is not a side effect. The joy, it turns out, might be the whole point. More on that after the [00:29:00] break
[00:29:03] If the lake project is what one visionary, albeit very paranoid man, builds for his family, there's also a market for those who'd rather just buy in and not do all this work themselves, put all this thought into it. Bradley visited the flagship of one such community, and it's almost cutely called The Survival Condo
[00:29:25] BRADLEY GARRETT: One of the things that was so weird to me is when I went to the survival condo in Kansas, it's probably the most elaborate and, gosh, I, I mean, it's almost luxurious, this bunker.
[00:29:42] Of all the bunkers I've seen, it's, it's the most, like, comfortable, most expensive, most incredible place I've ever seen, and it's built inside an Atlas F missile silo. It's 200 feet deep, and this guy bought it, Larry Hall, and he [00:30:00] turned it into, like, a subterranean condominium complex, and he's selling half floors in there for, I think, half a million and then a full floor for three million.
[00:30:11] But he bought it from the government for $300,000, and then he put 10 million into it, made 30 million in the first year. It felt exactly like Fallout. Like, Larry Hall is Vault-Tec. And I can't-- I keep trying to explain this to people. I'm like, "It's not science fiction. It's not a video game. This exists, right?
[00:30:35] You, you can go there. You can buy space in there if you have the money."
[00:30:40] SEAN KING O'GRADY: If you're not a gamer, here's what you need to know. Fallout is a video game series, and now also a hit TV show, set in a retrofuturistic America that didn't survive a nuclear war. Before the bombs fell, a cheerful corporation called Vault-Tec sold spaces in underground luxury vaults to anyone who could afford one.[00:31:00]
[00:31:00] CLIP: Friends, your future may not be as secure as you think. Where will you be when the atomic bombs fall?
[00:31:10] You can secure your family's future by reserving a spot in a state-of-the-art underground vault from Vault-Tec
[00:31:17] SEAN KING O'GRADY: The pitch was survival. The vaults were real, but the company's motives were not exactly what the brochure said. Ron Perlman has been the iconic voice of these games since the first installment 30 years ago when he uttered the now legendary phrase, "War, war never changes."
[00:31:37] RON PEARLMAN: War, war never changes. The Romans waged war to gather slaves and wealth. Spain built an empire from its lust for gold and territory.
[00:31:51] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Huh, this seems very familiar. Apocalypse, apocalypse never changes. There's something there. Anyway, [00:32:00] back to Bradley.
[00:32:02] BRADLEY GARRETT: He's got like 57 residents. He sold out immediately when he built this thing.
[00:32:08] And I asked him, "How many have been here?" And he said, "I don't know, 10 maybe." Like, most people were just writing him checks and saying, you know, "Make sure it's ready if I need it." But they actually never came to live there to test it out, to meet the people that they would be living with in the bunker, which is insane, right?
[00:32:32] Like
[00:32:34] SEAN KING O'GRADY: 57 residents, maybe 10 have ever seen it. They're not buying a shelter, not really. They're buying a feeling, and the feeling is so valuable that Bradley found people selling it without the shelter attached. That's right, bunkers that were fully paid for and did not exist. So what is the feeling? Al Corbi has spent five decades selling it, from $1,300 [00:33:00] townhouses to $103 million estates, and he can name it precisely.
[00:33:04] It's not fear of the disaster itself, it's fear of what your neighbor becomes on day four after the collapse. I mean, we've all seen The Purge, right? You
[00:33:15] AL CORBI: are a good man. You, you are a respectful person. You love your family. You wouldn't do anything wrong, right?
[00:33:22] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Mm-hmm.
[00:33:23] AL CORBI: What's gonna happen when I've got the water, I've got the food, and I've got the medication, and you don't?
[00:33:30] What are you gonna do?
[00:33:31] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Yeah. Good people will be forced to become
[00:33:33] AL CORBI: bad people. What-- No, no, no. No, say it. What are you gonna do?
[00:33:35] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Yeah, take it from someone.
[00:33:36] AL CORBI: Do you see? That's the point. So you've got good people doing bad things, and that's a condition you can't do anything about if you're not prepared. If you're prepared, you can.
[00:33:50] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Good people doing bad things. The flood in every version of this story is other people, and that idea, what it does to a [00:34:00] mind and why some minds run towards it, is where we go next. Maybe prepping and building bunkers is a really important and really logical thing to be doing. I don't know. But there's also something very attractive about it, even if it's not super rational.
[00:34:15] It's also very alluring to one specific segment of the population, and I wanna know why. I spoke with Casey Kelly, Professor of Rhetoric and Public Culture at the University of Nebraska, and an author of an incredibly insightful book about the psychology of prepping, appropriately titled Apocalypse Man.
[00:34:32] He makes a compelling case about prepping and its relationship to modern masculinity. So why is the book Apocalypse Man? Is prepping mostly a male activity?
[00:34:44] CASEY KELLY: That's a great question. I think there's a couple of reasons that we might see that. Part of the reason to prep is we need to, first of all, prepare for a world where traditional things that kept society together have collapsed.
[00:34:55] And so the assumption then that traditional male authority is what's [00:35:00] fundamentally in jeopardy kind of maybe explains why doomsday prepping's attraction to certain men makes a lot of sense if they believe that the traditional, like, sort of patriarchal structure of society is imminently Right, in danger of collapse.
[00:35:12] I think the second component of it is that this goes all the way back to the, the Vietnam War. There's a really fantastic book called Warrior Dreams by James Gibson, and in it what he talks about is like the kind of apocalypse in some ways that Vietnam signified for a lot of men, which is that the traditional idea of the soldier, which was like a, an iconic masculine archetype because of our, you know, strategic loss in that conflict and its unpopularity kind of eroded that archetype of the soldier.
[00:35:41] And in its place then came a paramilitary culture that was trying to like avenge that loss. If you think about Rambo just wanting his country to love him as much as he loves his country. It is sort of the demand to recover and reclaim masculinity because of its kind of the impending apocalyptic demise.
[00:35:59] And so I think [00:36:00] those two kind of elements maybe explain why like doomsday prepping, while it's not exclusively a male activity, does have a particular kind of masculinity associated with it.
[00:36:10] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Do you think they're, they're almost hoping for the collapse to restore the, the other order, and that's why they're prepping?
[00:36:17] Like what is happening there on a, on a psychological level?
[00:36:21] CASEY KELLY: You wonder to what extent that one would gain a sort of sense of self-satisfaction in having accurately predicted the end of the world and been one of the rare ones who was actually prepared for it. I think that some people prepare under the assumption that they believe that it's the best way to ensure their right health and safety.
[00:36:40] But I do think that there probably are those who prepare in such a way that there's a kind of like anxious desire, right, an ambivalent desire for that world to happen. There's a sense that maybe the world will be set right. Because apocalypse in terms of like the end of the world, its original definition when it comes from like a religious [00:37:00] scripture is revelation.
[00:37:01] So the end of the world could mean the end of the world as we know it, and the entry into another kind of world. So there's what may be a desire to like say that we'll be the heirs to a new world that will reset things to the way I want them to be set, right? I want to live in a world that's reorganized around tribalism and in seeing through everything, you kind of have a sense of mastery over the, you know, contingency and uncertainty of, of just managing the future.
[00:37:29] I think the other could be a giddy desire for a new world where the world is set back to an order that you believe to be fundamentally correct.
[00:37:38] SEAN KING O'GRADY: So it's the idea of nostalgia that we will go back to something else instead of forward into something we've never seen. A deep nostalgia for an imagined past that manifests in obsessing over the end of the world.
[00:37:52] But nostalgia doesn't explain the man with the flaming moat. He isn't cosplaying Rambo. He lies awake at night [00:38:00] asking whether he's crazy or whether he's been chosen. For that, I wanna go to Dr. Joel Gold, because when I described this lake project to him, he went straight to a very different movie than anything we've discussed.
[00:38:15] DR JOEL GOLD: It puts me in mind of this great movie, Take Shelter. Yeah. This notion of a man, he has these dreams of a coming apocalyptic storm and starts building a bunker. He's wrestling himself with this notion of, "Am I going crazy? And yet I feel compelled to build this bunker." At the end, you see the storm coming, but even then, you're not entirely sure that it's real or whether it's an hallucination.
[00:38:50] Where does being wisely protective end and some form of [00:39:00] paranoia begin?
[00:39:03] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Where does being wisely protective end and paranoia begin? That's the $103 million bunker question. I wanna be careful here because it would be easy, I guess, and it has been easy for late night hosts and other people on the internet to make a man with a modern-day moat into a punchline.
[00:39:22] But I stood on this guy's property. I met his family, and the truthful answer is, he's one of the warmest, most generous people I met this entire season. Al Corbi has a framing for this that I think about a lot.
[00:39:35] AL CORBI: When I was a kid, we looked up to success. We looked up to knowledge. Somehow we've gotten to the point that we now vilify.
[00:39:45] How in the world could you ever say anything negative about a person, in this case, the client, right, whose focus is on protecting his family? A father protecting his family, and [00:40:00] we've somehow made it a late-night joke
[00:40:04] SEAN KING O'GRADY: So if it isn't madness and if it isn't a joke, what is it? I wanna bring this discussion of bunkers and preppers to a close by looping back to a psychological theory we discussed earlier this season: Freud's death drive.
[00:40:19] Casey Kelly will give us a quick refresher on exactly what that is
[00:40:25] CASEY KELLY: The death drive was, uh, something that in the work of Freud, he identified as something that escaped his understanding of the pleasure principle. What he observed in the death drive is that it's not a desire for death per se, but it's that we, um, are constantly trying to stage an encounter with an original loss.
[00:40:44] Why do we repeat unpleasant experiences? They don't seem to make sense, because why would we want to undo ourselves in that way? We repeat these experiences that are negative, but so that we can master those experiences. But we never can really master them. We can only sort of change our relationship to [00:41:00] them.
[00:41:00] Now, what does any of this have to do with doomsday prepping? It's not that there's a desire for death, but that there is this repeated rumination and obsession with the breakdown and collapse of all things. Doomsday preppers, they'll be constantly on the lookout for all the signs, right? That everything is about to collapse.
[00:41:19] And in doing so, they're constantly sort of repeating this, like, negative, unbinding kind of experience, right? Like to just like face death continually, stage an encounter with, with death and destruction and mayhem over and over and over again. What do they gain by simulating the death of everything? In that simulation, there's a sense that we can master it.
[00:41:40] Instead of a passive posture to it, we can have an active posture to it. Does it stop the end of the world from coming? No. Does it bring about the end of the world? No. But it does change our relationship to the anxiety of its collapse.
[00:41:53] SEAN KING O'GRADY: This all makes sense from a purely theoretical and psychological perspective.
[00:41:57] But just like there's the lingering question, [00:42:00] what if the AI doomers are right and the apocalypse is coming, there's a related question about bunkering, because what if we really need this? What if it's the only way through, Freudian compulsions be damned? Now go back to the guy with the island, delighted, saying there's nothing he would rather be doing.
[00:42:16] Go back to fifty-seven giant checks written for bunkers that almost nobody visits. The ark doesn't have to sail to work. Building it is often the treatment for the psychological ails. Noah and the flood, the prepper and his compound, humanity and our machines. The same story over and over and over again.
[00:42:39] And that's the gentle version. Casey also gave me the dark version. What happens when the rehearsal stops being private?
[00:42:49] CASEY KELLY: There's a, a desire for that world, uh, and that we may actually then set into place the conditions to make that world happen. If enough of us like fundamentally believe that the world's going to end, then we're gonna govern [00:43:00] ourselves as, as if we are, and then maybe perhaps we would actually do things that would deliberately induce and create that world.
[00:43:07] SEAN KING O'GRADY: If you bet against society hard enough, you help make the collapse you're betting on, the self-fulfilling apocalypse. Keep that idea somewhere handy. It comes back in a big way later this season, as does this discussion about death and the things we do to avoid thinking about it. We'll be back after a quick break.
[00:43:26] Try not to think about death too much while listening to these words from our sponsors
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[00:43:56] So if you wanna hear more from Dr. Amy Levy, Timothy Morton, the Gold [00:44:00] brothers, any of our other experts, subscribe to our Patreon. The link is in the show notes, and we will deliver these exclusive interviews to you ad-free. Okay, back to the show. Apocalyptic thinking is everywhere. Are movies like Independence Day and Armageddon cultural expressions of the Freudian death drive?
[00:44:18] Is Silicon Valley discourse about the end of the world powered by the Freudian engine as much as it is legitimate concern? Is this podcast series and its focus on doomsday and human extinction a manifestation of my own fears? I don't know. I mean, why am I doing this? Aristotle said, "We are what we repeatedly do."
[00:44:39] We are our actions, and this episode is where everything kind of comes together. This is people taking actual action because of their apocalyptic beliefs. And look, we know, as the story says, the flood actually did come for Noah's neighbor. This is the parable about the value of preparation. But it hasn't come for ours yet.[00:45:00]
[00:45:01] Doesn't mean that it won't in any of these various forms we've discussed, doesn't mean that it will. It doesn't mean that AI will make it happen faster or different, but it's a possibility and one worth exploring, one a lot of these people think worth preparing for, whether that's upending your urban professor life and moving out to the Mojave Desert with a community of preppers or spending a vast sum of money building an island bunker.
[00:45:28] These are people taking action because of their beliefs. This is a big part of what humans do. Should we all be doing some kind of prepping? I don't know, but I do know if there's another Carrington Event or if some AI agent decides the best way to ensure its own survival is to take us all out, and the best way to do that is to kill our electric grid in one fell swoop, Bradley Garrett and our island prepper will be feeling much better than me.
[00:45:55] Let's wrap this episode up with the big question [00:46:00] So this question is, is a question that I ask everybody at the end. Do you think AI will cause the apocalypse?
[00:46:12] CASEY KELLY: I don't know for sure. I go back and forth. Some days I think that it will never be viable, the collapse will inevitably happen. We will find out that the dreams of general intelligence are just not achievable.
[00:46:24] Um, right? I'm, I'm still not convinced that AI is inevitable. But then in my darkest hours, I worry about the singularity, and I worry at what point would AI recognize that the existential threat to its existence is us. And then what will it do when it realizes that humanity is actually the largest threat to the planet and its inexistence?
[00:46:45] Will it get rid of us? I don't know. I hope not.
[00:46:50] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Yeah, me too.
[00:46:55] I also asked Emily Ray, who we heard from in the first part of this episode [00:47:00] Do you think AI will end the world?
[00:47:06] EMILY RAY: I don't want to go on record saying yes or no 'cause I don't wanna accidentally take a prophetic role. I guess to just fully punt in my most academic way is I don't know what world-ending means because I don't know if world-ending means the end of humans, humanity, which is different from the end of the world for humans, but not end of the world for the planet.
[00:47:30] I think that AI can certainly be used as a tool that might exacerbate conditions that threatens humanity, but I don't know how exactly that would happen.
[00:47:44] SEAN KING O'GRADY: We checked back in with Emily's co-author of Be Prepared, Robert Kirsch, as well. Last question for you. What do you do to prep for the apocalypse?
[00:47:57] ROBERT KIRSCH: Uh, I've got this one in the can.
[00:47:59] I get asked this [00:48:00] a lot. The Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA, they break the US up into regions, right? Uh, climatologically, and based on the region you live in, they have certain recommendations, and where I live in Arizona, you can imagine that the most important thing to be ready for is to ma-make sure you have potable water.
[00:48:21] So I make sure I have ten gallons of potable water in my house. That's the extent of my prepping. My attitude is that if there is an apocalyptic event that renders social and political life impossible, I hope I get taken out in the initial blast. Like, make me a carbon shadow. I don't, I don't wanna see the other side of this.
[00:48:46] SEAN KING O'GRADY: Speaking of the very far other side, there are people who don't just want to survive the end of the world. They want to transcend death entirely. People who look at a data center and see a life raft, not for humanity, [00:49:00] but for consciousness itself. Bradley put it to me this way
[00:49:06] BRADLEY GARRETT: If we're going to preserve human consciousness in any form other than our bodies, our best bet for doing so is inside bunkered space.
[00:49:19] We're gonna need to store that information, and I am-- I imagine that this is what a lot of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are thinking about, that these data centers for AI, for instance, could maybe one day double as storage units for human consciousness.
[00:49:40] SEAN KING O'GRADY: A bunker the size of your body that stores millions of digital minds.
[00:49:45] We've come a long way since Cappadocia. Next episode, the transhumanists, the singularitarians, and the strange constellation of ideologies with a crazy acronym, TESCREAL, that wants to survive the apocalypse [00:50:00] by becoming something other than human.
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